Taking a Stab at Rankings- Little Help?

[Fairfield Fan]

I mean, seriously? These ranked teams seem intent on proving to the world that they're not worthy of being ranked.

#20 South Florida loses to Memphis- bad loss.
#25 Tennessee loses to Georgia- Tennessee's 8th loss of the season
#24 Green Bay loses twice to teams in its own weak league
#23 West Virginia loses to unranked Iowa State
#19 NC State, which could be the most erratic team in years, loses to UNC, then pulls out a win against Louisville. Go figure!
#18 Arizona State loses three out of four games the past two weeks, including to USC, which had been in a tailspin.
#12 UCLA loses to unranked Cal.
#7 Lousville loses to NC State, while #6 South Carolina drops one to Tennessee.

So what to do?

I think that Green Bay drops out of both polls- never should have been there in the first place. I mean Detroit Mercy? Hello?!

West Virginia deserves to drop out, but probably won't.

Perhaps it's time for Michigan to move up: (8-2) 19-5

Perhaps it's time for K-State to move back up: 7-5 in the Big 12, compared with West Virginia's 4-7.

And how about Temple? Does their record- (7-2) 17-5- deserve a ranking?

Regarding specific rankings, no team is making a great case for itself.

The first three are solid: UConn, Baylor, Maryland. But after that, the #4-#16 teams have all been strong, yet have stumbled at certain points in the season. After #16, I couldn't possibly see how anyone deserves a specific rank.

Your thoughts? Little help?

 

[Phil]

I updated the rankings of the top 16 as measured by Massey, through last night's games.







Looking at the strength as portrayed by bar charts gives a better visual cue to which teams are similar, and where there are material differences.

I see two, similar ways to interpret this chart.

UConn is clearly #1

Baylor is clearly #2

Maryland, Mississippi St, South Carolina, and Florida St
are almost indistinguishable from each other and all a significant level below Baylor.

Notre Dame, Washington, Stanford, Oregon St, and Texas
are almost indistinguishable from each other and all a bit level below the group above.

The remaining fiveuke, Louisville, UCLA, Ohio St, and DePaul
are all significantly below Texas, and mostly distinct, although Louisville and UCLA are close to each other, as are Ohio St, and DePaul.

The second version is exactly the same except that those ranked #3 - #11 could be viewed as a single group.

This has seeding implications, and may explain why a team that appears to be way out of it's “natural” seeding, is not so far off.

For example, consider ND and TX, numbers 7 and 11. A ways apart if you consider rankings, but almost indistinguishable if you consider strength. If there are geographical, or other considerations to pick one or the other for a particular slot, the strength difference should be a non-issue.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I can't begin to attempt seedings for the NCAA. If that isn't the most byzantine system in the world!

I think the top 16 are easier than what comes after. I'm guessing that we could see lots of indistinguishable teams from 17 to...what- 35?

It strikes me that this is one of the weakest seasons for top teams I've seen in awhile.

 

[Vowelguy]

I mean, seriously? These ranked teams seem intent on proving to the world that they're not worthy of being ranked.

#7 Lousville loses to NC State, while #6 South Carolina drops one to Tennessee.

You're citing the Coaches poll, which already factored in SC's loss to TN last week.

In terms of the AP poll, SC-Miss St-Fla St will fight it out for 4-5-6.
Louisville will drop from 9th to 11th.
UCLA will drop from 13th to 15th.
20-25 will be a crap shoot; I will guess:

20) USF
21) Syracuse
22) Ariz St
23) Kentucky
24) W Virginia
25) Kansas St​

Michigan, Tenn, Temple will be next

 

[EricLA]

Just my $.02 but at this time of the year, it's less about who deserves to be where, and more about how much up or down the pollsters will move a team based on good/bad wins or losses. IMHO teams likely won't move more than 3 spots, even for a bad loss to an unranked team. All the teams you listed from 18 to 25 should drop 2-3 spots, and teams behind them who did not lose will move up.

Temple, in your example, was ranked 33 in AP (29 in coaches) last week so it's unlikely they will jump 8 spots to be in the top 25. More likely they will still also be receiving votes, maybe at #29-30 or so... But in the other poll - maybe 26? No idea

 

[Plebe]

My prediction for AP rankings:

1. UConn, 2. Baylor, 3. Maryland, 4. Miss St, 5. Fla St
6. SC, 7. ND, 8. Stanford, 9. Washington, 10. Ore St
11. TX, 12. Louisville, 13. Ohio St, 14. Duke, 15. Miami
16. NC St, 17. UCLA, 18. DePaul, 19. Okla, 20. Syracuse
21. Ariz St, 22. Michigan, 23. K-St, 24. USF, 25. Tenn

 

[Fairfield Fan]

My prediction for AP rankings:

1. UConn, 2. Baylor, 3. Maryland, 4. Miss St, 5. Fla St
6. SC, 7. ND, 8. Stanford, 9. Washington, 10. Ore St
11. TX, 12. Louisville, 13. Ohio St, 14. Duke, 15. Miami
16. NC St, 17. UCLA, 18. DePaul, 19. Okla, 20. Syracuse
21. Ariz St, 22. Michigan, 23. K-St, 24. USF, 25. Tenn

Arizona State remains? Probably does, probably shouldn't. Tennessee is such a wild card. For almost anyone else, their bad losses would mean they're permanently out of Top 25. But then they turn around and pull off big upsets. Temple? If Georgia can beat Tennessee, Temple probably could as well. I mean, they're coached by a UConn alumna!!

 

[Plebe]

Arizona State remains? Probably does, probably shouldn't. Tennessee is such a wild card. For almost anyone else, their bad losses would mean they're permanently out of Top 25. But then they turn around and pull off big upsets. Temple? If Georgia can beat Tennessee, Temple probably could as well. I mean, they're coached by a UConn alumna!!

Well, I'm pretty proud that I got all the teams right, albeit not in the right order:
2017 Women's College Basketball Rankings and Polls for Week 14 - ESPN

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Tennessee loses to Georgia, but moves up to 24th? And they think that the next team that should get in is- wait for it!!!- Creighton?

Wow! Really a crap shoot after about sixteen.

 

[Plebe]

Tennessee loses to Georgia, but moves up to 24th? And they think that the next team that should get in is- wait for it!!!- Creighton?

Wow! Really a crap shoot after about sixteen.

Where are you getting Creighton; did you mean Drake?

 

[triaddukefan]

Im convinced that 1) Someone from USF has incriminating photos/texts/emails from the AP Voters and the Coaches or 2) there must be an unwritten by-law that you must have two teams from the AAC ranked at all times.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Where are you getting Creighton; did you mean Drake?

Yep, sorry.

 

[Plebe]

Im convinced that 1) Someone from USF has incriminating photos/texts/emails from the AP Voters and the Coaches or 2) there must be an unwritten by-law that you must have two teams from the AAC ranked at all times.

I immediately thought of you when I saw USF at #22.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I think last night's rock-solid win on the road by Texas over Baylor will mean that it moves up to #7, ahead of Notre Dame. Stanford moves a bit down in the squishy center. I think Baylor remains where it is. Can't see Maryland deserving to take that spot. Or Oregon State or Washington.

 

[Phil]

Massey moved Texas up to 7 and left Baylor at 2.

 

[chrissaran]

Baylor lost to Texas, and Stanford lost to UCLA. USF shouldn't be ranked. Fairfield Fan, as you said a bad loss. Washington barely beat unranked Colorado 75-71. There's a lot for the committee to look at. It will keep changing until the official rankings before the tournament.

 

[bizarro aj]

Top 4 should be, uconn, FSU, miss st, Baylor!