T-4 weeks Starters Vote | Page 4 | The Boneyard

T-4 weeks Starters Vote

Bone Dog said:
A practical starting five with three guards and two forwards fairly leaps out of the data.
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The top 5 right now is a 4-guard lineup, which seems unlikely to me.
 
"This suggests a quite resaonable starting five of, Paige, Jana, Ash, KK, Ice" -Bone Dog

Absolutely agree with you Bone Dog, even would go so far as to say these are the probable starting five.

But you see what we did to get to this reasonable starting five? We elevated the #6 vote receiver up over the #5, in order to make it 'reasonable'. Without that change, no, it is not reasonable! Thank goodness we have a head coach who gets to make that reasonable alteration; Rank Choice doesn't allow for that in governmental voting.

"And yet research has clearly shown that Ranked Choice is a superior way of voting and produces outcomes more in line with what voters actually want." -Vowelguy

In countries where there are a dozen prominent political parties to choose from that produce a candidate pool of thirty which need to be reduced down in a primary, yes, I believe that Rank Choice may be the best. In the USA, with two prominent parties, and a very small minority of "Anything but these two!", it yields unreversible anomalies / outliers, similar to what we have in this poll.

"The top 5 right now is a 4-guard lineup, which seems unlikely to me." -Vowelguy

Yup.
 
People can pursue this whatever way they want, but clearly you increase the odds of being correct if you take into account who the other 4 starters are when picking the 5th one. It is not who is the 5th best player, but rather who fits best with the other 4. Geno will make his decision based on the perceived effectiveness of a 5 player unit.

If he believes 4 guards and 1 big is the best, he will use it, but I suspect the burden of proof would be in favor of two bigs.
 
oldhusky said:
People can pursue this whatever way they want, but clearly you increase the odds of being correct if you take into account who the other 4 starters are when picking the 5th one. It is not who is the 5th best player, but rather who fits best with the other 4. Geno will make his decision based on the perceived effectiveness of a 5 player unit.

If he believes 4 guards and 1 big is the best, he will use it, but I suspect the burden of proof would be in favor of two bigs.
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To me a lot depends on how much the role players from last year improved in the off season. To win most of the games it won't matter who joins the top 3 but at some point they will need to compete with USC and the like and that will take players who have size.
 
Vowelguy said:
44 ballots in (+ 3 waiting for corrections)


PB 100% chance of starting according to BY
AS 84
JA 82
KK 65
KC 59
IB 53
SS 50
AP 3
AZ 3
QS 1
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Your original poll plus this tabulation was great! I believe the poll demonstrates the “wisdom of crowds,” that aggregates individual biases and filters it. I’ll add to principles that have served me well in predicting starting line ups.

1. For “positionless” players Auriemma has a demonstrated preference for experienced competence over potential talent. Freshmen from Sales to Moore do not get the initial starts even when they get the most minutes.
2. Auriemma has made exceptions to the first principle with “position” players, ie, those he is grooming from the start to lead the offense or anchor the defense (Montgomery, Dolson).

The first principle explains why Shade scores so high from the collective wisdom of the BY. The second explains why JEA scores so high. The two principles together explains why Arnold scores significantly higher than Strong. With the benefit of seeing this wisdom from the BY and adding in my own bias I will say:

Bueckers = 10
JEA = 10
Shade = 10
Arnold = 6
Brady = 5
Chen = 5
Strong = 4
 
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Dugway said:
But you see what we did to get to this reasonable starting five? We elevated the #6 vote receiver up over the #5, in order to make it 'reasonable'. Without that change, no, it is not reasonable!
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I mainly agree with you. But I’m gonna fuss a little bit because… why not? Besides, I’m taking a break from staining my deck and need a diversion.

Data isn’t reasonable. It’s just brute facts, with no interpretation. Providing an interpretation or a reasoning makes it reasonable. In this case, I made it reasonable — and you concurred — by adding in one assumption: namely that the bottom four were really two pairs differentiated by position. As soon as you do this, you end up with a reasonable result.

Of course, I take @diggerfoot’s point that there’s a shift in modality with this interpretation, namely between position and positionless players. This is another way of looking at the question of reasonableness.

All in all, I’m very impressed by @Vowelguy’s little experiment here. It has been quite illuminating. Thanks.
 
Fisrt few game：
Paige
KK
ASH
Jana
Ice

My 24/25 starter
Paige
Azzi
Strong
Jana
Chen
 
I've really enjoyed this discussion! I can understand why people would like to see a traditional 5 position lineup and I'm sure we will see that a lot this year as well as Geno's 4 guard offense he has used often. The purpose was to do the starting lineup for a single first game. For that I still think Geno will start his most experienced 5 in his system although after the four obvious that leaves just one opening and given Azzi, Carolyn, and Aubrey are out injured and the freshmen (including Jana who has not yet played) have no game experience to me that leaves Q and Yanna. This lineup will likely, no matter who it actually includes. not be the starters in the national championship game :)
 
Paige 10
Shade 9
Jana 9
Chen 8
KK 7
Ice 5 - if she improved vs. LY flip her and Chen
Strong 2
Azzi 0 - not cleared
 
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Just over 2 weeks to go, and 49 Ballots in
  1. Paige 100
  2. JanaE 83.8
  3. Shade 83.2
  4. KKArn 66
  5. KChen 58
  6. IceBr 53
  7. SrStr 49
  8. Zweib 2.9
  9. APatt 2.7
  10. Q_Sam 1

I've been surprised that Shade has scored so much higher than KK. Shade has seemed more of a utility player -- not a PG, not a lights-out 3pt shooter, not a power rebounder -- but does a lot of things well. Whereas KK's speed and ability to push pace something no one else has. Will be interesting to see how Geno uses them.
 
Vowelguy said:
I've been surprised that Shade has scored so much higher than KK. Shade has seemed more of a utility player -- not a PG, not a lights-out 3pt shooter, not a power rebounder -- but does a lot of things well. Whereas KK's speed and ability to push pace something no one else has. Will be interesting to see how Geno uses them.
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With all the talk of Chen, I split my vote for point guard between her and Arnold. It wasn’t a matter of perceived talent, but of position.
 
Vowelguy said:
Just over 2 weeks to go, and 49 Ballots in
  1. Paige 100
  2. JanaE 83.8
  3. Shade 83.2
  4. KKArn 66
  5. KChen 58
  6. IceBr 53
  7. SrStr 49
  8. Zweib 2.9
  9. APatt 2.7
  10. Q_Sam 1

I've been surprised that Shade has scored so much higher than KK. Shade has seemed more of a utility player -- not a PG, not a lights-out 3pt shooter, not a power rebounder -- but does a lot of things well. Whereas KK's speed and ability to push pace something no one else has. Will be interesting to see how Geno uses them.
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I voted Chen over KK which dropped KK. I would have voted Azzi over Ashlynn. If Chen was hurt insteadof Azzi then I'm sure KK would have been much higher. In addition, Ashlynn also has a mid-range game. Also she doesn't need to be lights-out from 3, just very good. Plus she will probably get a sophomore jump which means her shooting comes closer to "lights-out." . Players improve thus expect her shooting to improve. Plus she won't be playing as many minutes which wears down her legs. Also, this year's team the offense should be much stronger (not the Defense). So add everything up Ashlynn is projected to be one helluva utility player. And this thread was projected for game 1 predictions, not half-way through the season.
 
Paige 10
KK 7 \
Shade 7 > two of these three will start
Chen 7 /
Jana 6 \
Ice 6 > two of these three will start
Strong 6 /
Allie 1 might look for more outside scoring
 
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EasyEd said:
Paige 10
KK 7 \
Shade 7 > two of these three will start
Chen 7 /
Jana 6 \
Ice 6 > two of these three will start
Strong 6 /
Allie 1 might look for more outside scoring
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How could anyone disagree with this? Geno mentioned having nine players ready to contribute; the only question is whether that ninth is Quadance or Morgan.
 
Boreifs said:
How could anyone disagree with this? Geno mentioned having nine players ready to contribute; the only question is whether that ninth is Quadance or Morgan.
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Judging from his remarks last week, that ninth player is probably Qadence. He said she had an “awesome week” in practice.
 
Just my opinion…
Paige - 10 (Paige will do Paige things)
Kaitlyn - 10 (these first two are veterans w/ 8 yrs between them)
Ashlynn - 10 (3rd leading scorer, Azzi still healing, Geno trusts Ash)
Jana - 10 (Geno loves a big girl in the middle)
Ice - 10 (played well late in the season, 2nd big let’s Paige play on the wing)

KK coming in off the bench would be nightmare for opponents, Sarah will start later in the season, Azzi gets lots of minutes as Geno gets ready for March. This might be the season opening line up because it gives Geno veteran leadership, 2 bigs and plenty of three point shooters to spread the floor.

Go Huskies..!!
 
DavidinNaples said:
Just my opinion…
Paige - 10 (Paige will do Paige things)
Kaitlyn - 10 (these first two are veterans w/ 8 yrs between them)
Ashlynn - 10 (3rd leading scorer, Azzi still healing, Geno trusts Ash)
Jana - 10 (Geno loves a big girl in the middle)
Ice - 10 (played well late in the season, 2nd big let’s Paige play on the wing)

KK coming in off the bench would be nightmare for opponents, Sarah will start later in the season, Azzi gets lots of minutes as Geno gets ready for March. This might be the season opening line up because it gives Geno veteran leadership, 2 bigs and plenty of three point shooters to spread the floor.

Go Huskies..!!
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There for a second, I didn’t remember making this post. . . Then I realized I hadn’t

I have the same starting lineup for the first game as you and pretty much for the same reason
 
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Vowelguy said:
Variation on the age old question:

RULES
This is for starters on first regular season game on NOV 7
Total of 50 points to allocate
No more than 10 points per person

100% confident a player will start, give her 10 points.
100% confident a player won't start, give her 0 points.
Can't decide between A and B? Give them each 5 points.
(You can think of the points * 10 as the % chance they will start.)

The winner: when the starting 5 is announced, add up your points for those 5 players. Most wins.
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Paige 10
KK. 10
Jana. 10
Ash. 10
Chen. 10
 
KK - 4
Chen - 7
Shade - 9
Bueckers - 10
Strong - 8
Brady - 3
El Alfy - 9

Favoring Strong now, because of Genos recent comments where he said she’s one of the most impressive freshman they’ve had in a long time (presumably since Paige) which for him to say before any games have been played, I think says a lot.
 
.-.
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