Syracuse vs. UConn

[Geew1992]

I Live in the Cuse and have watched both teams play every game this year. UConn will win by 30+, and here's why:

Syracuse is not as good as last year, not even close.
Last year they were 10 deep, with upper classmen top to bottom. They subbed constantly to keep players fresh. And all those players understood the system. Their pressure defense was stifling. They lived off forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding to create extra possessions to support their pedestrian three point shooting percentage. But nearly half those players are gone now. 4 of their 10 person rotation graduated. They lost their third, fourth, fifth, and sixth best players. Now, they are 7 deep, A rotation of the 6 left overs and freshman Gabby Cooper. They can't keep up the same intensity as last year. They don't press nearly as effectively as last year. They don't shoot the three as efficiently as last year. They are too dependent on Sykes and Peterson. Their only post presence is Briana Day, and she'll very likely get into foul trouble. Gabby Cooper's shooting will likely revert back to season average 28% against UConn's defense.

UConn will easily handle the full court pressure. In the half court, Gabby will be at the foul line against SU's zone. From there it's basically over, as she will have four options. 1) Fake and blow by for layup. 2) pass to Pheesa underneath for a layup. 3) Kick to Kia/Lou/Chonger for wide open three. 4) stick the foul line jumper.

Defensively, UConn will need to slow down Sykes and Peterson, and they will. Syracuse will need a third option to step up . That won't happen.

UConn 102
SU 68

Why doesn't he play Elmore more? Is she just not ready? I know she was the best player in CT high school last year. She had a great 4 years in high school. A beast on the boards too.

 

[oldude]

It was unfortunate that after a 33-8 1st qtr, ESPN left the Syracuse game to find a competitive matchup, so I had to go to the box score to figure out what happened the rest of the game. If I was Syracuse I would be really concerned for the following reasons:

• In the last 3 qtrs, a slow, overmatched IO St team out scored the Orange by 5 pts.
• Syracuse kept their starters in pretty much the entire game with only Bria Day as a sub for her sister & Slim when they both got into foul trouble. This may be the one team in America with less depth than UConn.
• Syracuse didn't get a single point off the bench, or much of anything else for that matter.

I'm thinking UConn by 25.

 

[UcMiami]

Syracuse doesn't have a real presence in the paint. The Day sisters are just too light and not strong enough to rebound the ball well. Syracuse will suffer on the boards and Napheesa will make short work of them on the blocks.

I am not worried about anything that Syracuse throws at the Huskies. Maryland and Baylor--eh.. that's a different discussion for a later time.

The one concern on rebounding (not Uconn's strongest area either) is that three point shots generally carry greater 'energy' and the carom off glass and iron goes further so the rebound becomes more of a 50/50 proposition regardless of positioning. And a team like Syracuse usually commits at least 4 players to offensive rebounding - leads to more break away chances, but also more offensive rebounds.

 

[bags27]

The one concern on rebounding (not Uconn's strongest area either) is that three point shots generally carry greater 'energy' and the carom off glass and iron goes further so the rebound becomes more of a 50/50 proposition regardless of positioning. And a team like Syracuse usually commits at least 4 players to offensive rebounding - leads to more break away chances, but also more offensive rebounds.

Great point!
Crystal will win more than her fair share of those. Ever notice how many of those she scoops up? has Pheesa's instincts for the bounce in a 5'5" body.

 

[UConnNick]

I remember many years ago, mid-nineties I think, when Syracuse had a lousy team, they shockingly upset us at the old Manley Field House, by a few points.

That's not happening again on Monday night. Huskies by 40.

 

[Chong-Master]

@DukeOfClinton has allayed my slight concern about the press. That's one area where Saniya makes me a little nervous.

And there's no Mo, Stewie, and Tuck to bring it up, but there's a 6'3" ball-handler who can pass over the top and a 6'1" forward with long arms and hands like a frog's tongue to catch the passes. Finally, I think it's foolish for pretty much any team not named Notre Dame to want to open up the floor against UConn.

Got to disagree with you Gus on this one. Saniya Chong has been one of UCONN's best perimeter defenders all season long. She had definitely turned her defensive game around (an area that she worked her butt off on during the past off season). Chong has held her own and then some against some of the best guard play in the country (can you say Notre Dame, Florida State, South Carolina??)

I am not worried about the STARTING FIVE at all in this tournament. Where I get anxious about is what would happen if Collier AND Williams together get into serious foul trouble and Geno is forced to go to the bench, is whether or not either Natalie Butler or MORE IMPORTANT Kyla Irwin can step up to the plate (It wouldn't surprise me if Kyla played out of her head and was super. She has shown 'Flashes' of outstanding play recently, if during garbage time at the end of games.

Overall, I think we are good for the next couple of games !!

 

[mntncougar]

Do we know yet what time the game is on Monday?

 

[CocoHusky]

Got to disagree with you Gus on this one. Saniya Chong has been one of UCONN's best perimeter defenders all season long. She had definitely turned her defensive game around (an area that she worked her butt off on during the past off season). Chong has held her own and then some against some of the best guard play in the country (can you say Notre Dame, Florida State, South Carolina??)

I am not worried about the STARTING FIVE at all in this tournament. Where I get anxious about is what would happen if Collier AND Williams together get into serious foul trouble and Geno is forced to go to the bench, is whether or not either Natalie Butler or MORE IMPORTANT Kyla Irwin can step up to the plate (It wouldn't surprise me if Kyla played out of her head and was super. She has shown 'Flashes' of outstanding play recently, if during garbage time at the end of games.
Overall, I think we are good for the next couple of games !!

Saniya is an improved defender but far from being among the best UCONN perimeter defenders. Specific to @Gus Mahler concern I share the concern-slightly. Saniya has a tendency to want to dribble through the press when the preferred method is to pass over. Once you break the press Saniya also has this tendency to pull the ball back and set up when the preferred method is to attach using drag screens and trail three or pitch to the corner for the open three. Crystal also has the same habit of wanting to dribble through the press so if Syracuse has any success with the press look for a combination of KLS, Gabby, and Kia to break the press. They will work fine but it is not optimal because of what UCONN will be giving up. Kia is probably the best in the NCAA at hitting that corner 3, Gabby is among the best finisher once the press is broken and KLS is the best at hitting the trail three ball.

 

[Huskee11]

I think UConn wins big on Monday. 30+.

I was at the games yesterday, left after the first half of Syracuse/Iowa State. ISU was very disappointing. They lost to Miss State in OT and had wins over KState, Drake, West Virginia (2x) and Texas. Yet they looked to me to be slower and less athletic than even 11th seed USF, and far less skilled than USF. Syracuse was raining threes on them and they didn`t even seem to care about defending the perimeter. Cooper was getting very lonely over in the right corner.

Syracuse does have a big time player in Sykes, but Gabby will neutralize her.

The Orange gave up 108 vs. DePaul, 105 vs. Texas A&M, and 91 to Louisville. On the other hand, they beat Miami by 33 and held them to 48 points, and only lost to ND by 5.

But Hillsman, often wrong but never in doubt, will try to play a full court pressing game and will be fine with his players hoisting early threes. That leads to an open court track meet with plenty of UConn possessions, assists, and easy baskets. Anyone remember the first quarter against DePaul? DePaul, a 7th seed, tried that strategy and was down 37-6 after one.

In those instances where we are defending in the half court, the Orange has no inside game to concern us.

Even if Syracuse gets hot and gets big scoring games from Sykes and Peterson, I doubt Syracuse can score more than 75. So, worst case, we outscore them.

 

[DukeOfClinton]

Why doesn't he play Elmore more? Is she just not ready? I know she was the best player in CT high school last year. She had a great 4 years in high school. A beast on the boards too.

She came to school out of shape. Also had trouble adjusting to college life, a new team, the work involved. She will be very important for Cuse moving forward though. Still needs better conditioning, but she plays bigger than her height. She loves the paint and can rebound. As she gets stronger will be able to finish through contact better.

 

[DukeOfClinton]

My daughter is a Cuse senior and we bleed orange ceptin when it comes to my Uconn women. Go Uconn!

In the same boat. Love me some Cuse, but UConn trumps all. Was very disappointed with the brackets. Not only was Cuse under seeded, but then put against UConn second game was obviously the worst possible scenario.

 

[ctfjr]

I like Peterson and Sykes to have 20-25 each. They are both solid players. That being said, UConn by 30+.

I'll go out a big (not) limb here and say this isn't going to happen.

 

[hiker04]

First half will be close. UConn runs them into the ground the second half. IF KLS shot is on add another 10 points to MOV

UConn Syracuse
Nurse 18 Slim 06
Chong 10 Day 08
Kia 15 Cooper 12
Gabby 20 Sykes 20
Collier 20 Peterson 20
Crystal Dangerfield 06 Bench 00
Butler 08
Bench 04
TTL 101 TTL 66

MOV 101 - 66 = 35

 

[Tenspro2002]

The 3-point shooting is a concern. The press? Eh.

If Syracuse makes 15 3's again (entirely doable), and if we have a bad shooting night (less doable), this could be like an 80-75 game coming down the stretch in the 4th quarter.

I think our defense continues to be not quite up to par (as Geno has acknowledged), but we have more than enough offense to get by. Think the 1st Temple game or the 2nd USF game. Something like 95-73.

 

[DukeOfClinton]

I think UConn wins big on Monday. 30+.

I was at the games yesterday, left after the first half of Syracuse/Iowa State. ISU was very disappointing. They lost to Miss State in OT and had wins over KState, Drake, West Virginia (2x) and Texas. Yet they looked to me to be slower and less athletic than even 11th seed USF, and far less skilled than USF. Syracuse was raining threes on them and they didn`t even seem to care about defending the perimeter. Cooper was getting very lonely over in the right corner.

Syracuse does have a big time player in Sykes, but Gabby will neutralize her.

The Orange gave up 108 vs. DePaul, 105 vs. Texas A&M, and 91 to Louisville. On the other hand, they beat Miami by 33 and held them to 48 points, and only lost to ND by 5.

But Hillsman, often wrong but never in doubt, will try to play a full court pressing game and will be fine with his players hoisting early threes. That leads to an open court track meet with plenty of UConn possessions, assists, and easy baskets. Anyone remember the first quarter against DePaul? DePaul, a 7th seed, tried that strategy and was down 37-6 after one.

In those instances where we are defending in the half court, the Orange has no inside game to concern us.

Even if Syracuse gets hot and gets big scoring games from Sykes and Peterson, I doubt Syracuse can score more than 75. So, worst case, we outscore them.

Agree with everything. Gabby on Sykes. I would go Chong/Crystal on Peterson, Kia on Cooper, Lou on Slim, and Pheesa on Day. Syracuse's press will work against hem just like in last year's title game, and your reference to DePaul as example is spot on. Cuse's Day has improved vastly over the years, but still isn't half the player Pheesa is. I would attack her early, get her into foul trouble.

 

[DukeOfClinton]

Let's not sleep on Gabby Cooper she is pretty good from outside the line.

Cooper is a nice player. She is a volume 3 point shooter, but at 30%. She will be sent to the Nurse's office.

 

[cbraarj]

Yeah!! It's supposed to be in the 80s here today.

Thanks for sharing,lol!

 

[Pastahusky98]

Do we know yet what time the game is on Monday?

6:30

 

[cbraarj]

I remember many years ago, mid-nineties I think, when Syracuse had a lousy team, they shockingly upset us at the old Manley Field House, by a few points.

That's not happening again on Monday night. Huskies by 40.

Kia Nurses Aunt was the starting pg for that team! Donovan McNabbs better half.

 

[cbraarj]

Got to disagree with you Gus on this one. Saniya Chong has been one of UCONN's best perimeter defenders all season long. She had definitely turned her defensive game around (an area that she worked her butt off on during the past off season). Chong has held her own and then some against some of the best guard play in the country (can you say Notre Dame, Florida State, South Carolina??)

I am not worried about the STARTING FIVE at all in this tournament. Where I get anxious about is what would happen if Collier AND Williams together get into serious foul trouble and Geno is forced to go to the bench, is whether or not either Natalie Butler or MORE IMPORTANT Kyla Irwin can step up to the plate (It wouldn't surprise me if Kyla played out of her head and was super. She has shown 'Flashes' of outstanding play recently, if during garbage time at the end of games.

Overall, I think we are good for the next couple of games !!

I am One of the people who ragged about Saniyas defense and confidence from the beginning but this year she has done a really good job all year! I am happy for her. Her play is just as important as anyones on the team. She is just playing the game and not stressing herself out like in the past. 5 more games Saniya help the team bring it home!

 

[Gus Mahler]

Got to disagree with you Gus on this one. Saniya Chong has been one of UCONN's best perimeter defenders all season long. She had definitely turned her defensive game around (an area that she worked her butt off on during the past off season). Chong has held her own and then some against some of the best guard play in the country (can you say Notre Dame, Florida State, South Carolina??)

I am not worried about the STARTING FIVE at all in this tournament. Where I get anxious about is what would happen if Collier AND Williams together get into serious foul trouble and Geno is forced to go to the bench, is whether or not either Natalie Butler or MORE IMPORTANT Kyla Irwin can step up to the plate (It wouldn't surprise me if Kyla played out of her head and was super. She has shown 'Flashes' of outstanding play recently, if during garbage time at the end of games.

Overall, I think we are good for the next couple of games !!

Allow me to clarify:

I'm not concerned about her defensive ability. In fact, she's getting better and better with the active hands--she's gotten her hands on, or almost did, a lot of passes lately.

I'm talking about a (slight) concern with Saniya handling the Syracuse press. That's based on last year's championship game in which she was inserted into the game cold in the second half and made a couple of turnovers against the press. Geno then famously roared "See, you just can't trust her," or some such. So she got pulled.

As @Kaizen rightly points out, she's a different player this year. But of course she is human and she may have some lingering doubts in her head based on last year's memories. Of course I hope that's not the case and that she not only plays a key role in breaking the press but also in attacking it and scoring off the drive and the spot up.

 

[Buzzyboy]

First half will be close. UConn runs them into the ground the second half. IF KLS shot is on add another 10 points to MOV

UConn Syracuse
Nurse 18 Slim 06
Chong 10 Day 08
Kia 15 Cooper 12
Gabby 20 Sykes 20
Collier 20 Peterson 20
Crystal Dangerfield 06 Bench 00
Butler 08
Bench 04
TTL 101 TTL 66

MOV 101 - 66 = 35

You do know that you have Nurse scoring 18 points and then Kia scoring 15 points. meaning 33 points from Kia Nurse. Since I didn't see KLS, I'm assuming that one of these scores is actually belonging to KLS, right?

 

[warbler1055]

SYR blew out ISU in what I thought would be a well contested game. SYR was underseeded and has pretty good scorers. It's going to be an exciting game and not the blowout that people seem to predict. UConn wins but it's a fight!!! I still don't understand the reason for coach Q not to allow BS to play in SYR but Q seemed to be a good coach, his players play hard.

 

[Gus Mahler]

Great point!
Crystal will win more than her fair share of those. Ever notice how many of those she scoops up? has Pheesa's instincts for the bounce in a 5'5" body.

Yes, I've noticed that. She's a Super Scooper. Shades of Mo, really. And Hartley.

 

[OldAlum]

Looks like they are giving free tickets to students again! Should make for a great atmosphere.