Swimming in the hate

[browndog319]

The negotiation, in my view, will be whether we need to pay more $10M to leave early. In that debate, the fact that Aresco negotiated away our Tier 3 rights, of which only UConn's had any significant value will come up as will that statements that we don't really bring any value to the league. Tough to say your damages exceed the state exit fee amount if you've made statements that we have no value.

Likewise the notion that ESPN will not reduce the American deal means that the individual schools would be paid more by virtue of UConn leaving. It's tough to say that they're damaged by our departure if they actually are making more money. Finally since the bulk of the media contract is due to football, our offer to continue to play in the American serves to mitigate damages. It's dismissal by Aresco hurts a claim for damages.

All these things put us in a position to leave early without additional cost. Not a sure thing by any means, but there are arguments. The more interesting question is how much does our interest in accrued bowl and NCAA tournament fees offset the $10M.

Exactly. When you negotiate something away that minimizes a members ability to make additional revenue, when that revenue stream didn’t impact the other members, it does change the negotiation.
It doesn’t mean it’s absolutely a win for us but it doesn’t mean the AAC can ignore any negotiation.

 

[Towney007]

Probably where all the hate stems from: as you note the mission for every school in this conference is to not be in this conference. UConn accomplished this mission, their favorite school has not.

There's no future in a conference where everyone's goal is to get out as quick as possible. None. The Big East worked originally because it was a group of schools with the same goals and who were all pulling from the same end of the rope. There was a 'up yours' mentality to it. It had geographic identity. It had cultural identity. It worked geographically. It all made sense. But even that took catching lightning in a bottle on the ESPN TV deal.

None of that exists in the AAC. No one wants to be here. Everyone - particularly us (which we should take no shame in) - is insanely self-interested. There's no geography. No shared culture. No history, no rivals, no regional history... and whenever anyone says the conference sucks - doesn't matter if you're at Houston or Memphis or UConn.. everyone's nodding in agreement.

It's not - in any single way - a sustainable league. And it never has been. That's why when it was basically Conference USA - it didn't work.

And that's kind of been my whole point all along with the AAC and why i've always been against waiting it out. SOMEONE was going to go. And that someone was going to be one of the better football programs (Houston/Memphis/Cincinnati/UCF/USF) or UConn. And lose any one of those five and the conference value craters.

I mean imagine the Big XII called Cincinnati last week and gave them an invite. They'd 100% take it. And where would our conference be without Cincinnati in it all of a sudden? What if it was Memphis? How much of a blow does the football brand take a hit if the ACC calls up UCF tomorrow and they bolt? Lose anybody in this thing and it's a flipping disaster. And to me, that's why we couldn't wait. We couldn't be the ones sitting here watching someone else go elsewhere. Imagine being stuck in a conference minus any of the sort of respectable programs in it.

And I wouldn't be surprised with the UConn move to the Big East - if the Big XII isn't sitting there going 'you know, this is probably the time to do this, they're reeling, they're not getting the money they want, now their TV deal is getting negotiated down... here's the time to get them at a bargain.'

At a point, you've just gotta play the cards you've got and to me, the Big East was the best possible move all things considered. Anything involving the AAC is the real gamble.

 

[uconnell]

View attachment 44359

Louisville education?

 

[jibsey]

There's no future in a conference where everyone's goal is to get out as quick as possible. None. The Big East worked originally because it was a group of schools with the same goals and who were all pulling from the same end of the rope. There was a 'up yours' mentality to it. It had geographic identity. It had cultural identity. It worked geographically. It all made sense. But even that took catching lightning in a bottle on the ESPN TV deal.

None of that exists in the AAC. No one wants to be here. Everyone - particularly us (which we should take no shame in) - is insanely self-interested. There's no geography. No shared culture. No history, no rivals, no regional history... and whenever anyone says the conference sucks - doesn't matter if you're at Houston or Memphis or UConn.. everyone's nodding in agreement.

It's not - in any single way - a sustainable league. And it never has been. That's why when it was basically Conference USA - it didn't work.

And that's kind of been my whole point all along with the AAC and why i've always been against waiting it out. SOMEONE was going to go. And that someone was going to be one of the better football programs (Houston/Memphis/Cincinnati/UCF/USF) or UConn. And lose any one of those five and the conference value craters.

I mean imagine the Big XII called Cincinnati last week and gave them an invite. They'd 100% take it. And where would our conference be without Cincinnati in it all of a sudden? What if it was Memphis? How much of a blow does the football brand take a hit if the ACC calls up UCF tomorrow and they bolt? Lose anybody in this thing and it's a flipping disaster. And to me, that's why we couldn't wait. We couldn't be the ones sitting here watching someone else go elsewhere. Imagine being stuck in a conference minus any of the sort of respectable programs in it.

And I wouldn't be surprised with the UConn move to the Big East - if the Big XII isn't sitting there going 'you know, this is probably the time to do this, they're reeling, they're not getting the money they want, now their TV deal is getting negotiated down... here's the time to get them at a bargain.'

At a point, you've just gotta play the cards you've got and to me, the Big East was the best possible move all things considered. Anything involving the AAC is the real gamble.

I agree and imagine being left at the altar again, and we could make a move from here, although I know it's unlikely.

 

[Towney007]

I agree and imagine being left at the altar again, and we could make a move from here, although I know it's unlikely.

I have zero interest in UConn 'making a move' from here. Gotta figure out football but again - they're making more with football as an independent than they would with them in a conference. The future for them may be some weird thing that gets a lot of money out of the Big East - then another $1-2.5 million off tier-3 and then brings in a ton of dough playing indy in football in buy in games. There's a shot in 2-3 years, that they're clearing $10 million per year in rights fees/buy in games.

Which puts us in a weird no-man's land between a Big East school and a true FB/BB P5 school. Which truth be told - is probably where we belong. And it's not the traditional way of doing it -but if we can duct tape it this way - then great. Bowl games will be harder to get to, but outside of that, everyone would be mostly happy.

 

[Linekin Bay]

Good summary. Addresses a lot of points.

I'm a Villanova guy and I think it's cool the Huskies are back in the fold. Hopefully, it will be good for both parties. I'm old enough to remember the original rivalries and feel confident the new ones will be of equal intensity.

If the day comes and UConn needs to leave for a P5, the payout will not be a burden due either to the windfall of the new affiliation or the duration with the BEC has been sufficient to ratchet down the exit fee. Everyone wins.

More importantly, everyone is content sitting at the table, as you mentioned.

 

[Chief00]

You can't make the long term interest argument with anything pertaining to the AAC. Bottom line is that it's made up of schools who share almost nothing in common outside of having middling-ish football programs and athletic departments who's #1 goal is to *not* be in the AAC. No one wants to be in the conference and the first chance any of them get to enhance their prospects will be jumped at. It's a life raft in some ways, but you don't finish your trans Atlantic journey a few miles off launch in a lifeboat. There's zero long term viability so long as that's true.

Sort of like the U.S Senate - everyone’s goal is to be President.