Summer topic #1 - HS ranking to WNBA | The Boneyard

Summer topic #1 - HS ranking to WNBA

BRS24

LisaG
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
5,304
Reaction Score
34,338
I saw a tweet about the 2023 draft class and started to think about HS recruiting rankings and then I started a spreadsheet, LOL.

Question of the day - if I posted 3 or 4 HS ranking classes and WNBA info, how deep in the ESPN top 100 should I go?
 
I'd go the other way--from WNBA rosters to HS ranking. And I am curious to know: who is the lowest ranked high school recruit to make a roster and what was that rank?
Whew. Ok, so start with the current rosters and work backwards. I'll noodle this one a bit. :D
 
Whew. Ok, so start with the current rosters and work backwards. I'll noodle this one a bit. :D
I like @cometjo idea, if it is easier that way. We greatly appreciate you making these spreadsheets. :)
 
I like @cometjo idea, if it is easier that way. We greatly appreciate you making these spreadsheets. :)
I suggested it because it weemed easier, but I don't know - I guess it depends how deep into the High School rankings you go. Maybe the difference is on a focus between happy stories and less happy stores—between high ranked kids coming out of high school who didn't get to the W vs low ranked kids who did well. Aneesah Morrow, might be the extreme example of the latter, and the answer to my question about the lowest ranked player to make it. I just checked and she was ranked as a 3 star, 18th at her position and no ranking given overall.
 
I have been reviewing data for the full HG 100 rankings, All-American correlation and All-Conference achievements since the 2011 season. I did find about 19.7% of the AP All American spots on their 3 teams are earned but players NOT ranked in the top 100. It’s a lot of data and takes a lot of time and I am still trying to how to aggregate it.
 
Fun fact for everyone: there are only 3 #1 ranked Hoopgurlz players since 2011 who never made All American status and never achieved their Conference Player of the Year Award. They are Mercedes Russell 2013, Christyn Williams 2018 and Azzi Fudd 2021. Azzi has one more chance to rectify that…
 
Fun fact for everyone: there are only 3 #1 ranked Hoopgurlz players since 2011 who never made All American status and never achieved their Conference Player of the Year Award. They are Mercedes Russell 2013, Christyn Williams 2018 and Azzi Fudd 2021. Azzi has one more chance to rectify that…
Interesting fact. The one difference is that both Russell & Williams played 4 full seasons, although Russell missed her sophomore season due to injury.

Azzi has yet to play a full, healthy season. This past season was the closest, as she missed the first 4 games and then slowly ramped up her play as the season progressed. But she absolutely killed it in the FF. Fingers crossed that next season Azzi will be healthy from start to finish, which will give her a great opportunity to earn 1st team AA.
 
Last edited:
Arguments could be made for both comparisons, however I like the original idea suggested by @BRS24. Teams and fans lean on these rankings alot. It would be interesting to see how relevant these are in the end.

Another reason why this interests me is because of how much of a business the rankings have become for AAU and these experts. From my perspective as a coach, it's tainted grassroots basketball. Would love to see data that would confirm or prove me wrong on my suspicion.
 
[QUOTE…. Would love to see data that would confirm or prove me wrong on my suspicion.
[/QUOTE]
What data are you looking for? As I am not sure the data I have or Lisa is gathering will help you with your “tainting” suspicion.

The other main point is the main ranking services are NOT Ranking for WNBA criteria or “potential of 4 years down the road”.
Sure you could look at a correlation but HS girl ranking has 4 years of variables that are being ignored-college program, games played, competition, coaching development that are unknown by the evaluators.
Lauren Cox was a number 1, earned AA honors, won the Big 12 POY and didn’t last long in the WNBA, yet Mercedes Russell is still in the league.

As I said above, I have lots of data but am struggling how to best aggregate it for a logical presentation.
 
[QUOTE…. Would love to see data that would confirm or prove me wrong on my suspicion.
What data are you looking for? As I am not sure the data I have or Lisa is gathering will help you with your “tainting” suspicion.

The other main point is the main ranking services are NOT Ranking for WNBA criteria or “potential of 4 years down the road”.
Sure you could look at a correlation but HS girl ranking has 4 years of variables that are being ignored-college program, games played, competition, coaching development that are unknown by the evaluators.
Lauren Cox was a number 1, earned AA honors, won the Big 12 POY and didn’t last long in the WNBA, yet Mercedes Russell is still in the league.

As I said above, I have lots of data but am struggling how to best aggregate it for a logical presentation.
[/QUOTE]

This is an example of the data, which is what I thought was the idea being proposed.

Fully aware that there are plenty of variables when it comes to whether a college player makes it in the W. From a Canadian perspective, Kia Nurse and Bridget Carleton is a great example. Nurse was ranked if I recall correctly, where Carleton was relatively unknown. Both now in the WNBA, however I would say Carleton has had the better career to date.

And I'm fully aware that ranking services are not predicting WNBA, however their opinion carries weight in AAU circles. Athletes end up chasing the programs who boast these prospects instead of going to a program that's right for them.

Or all these clinics and showcases for players to be "seen" by the right people. It's gotten excessive over the last few years in my opinion.

The story about Sarah Strong and how she was discovered was refreshing to hear during the tournament. Proof that the adage "if you have the talent, you'll be seen" still rings true.
 
Ah, wasn't Sue Bird ranked something like 28 coming out of HS (I could be wrong, but not by much). Geno once said he wanted to know who the other kids ranked in front of her were. HS rankings are not everything.
 
Interesting fact. The one difference is that both Russell & Williams played 4 full seasons, although Russell missed her sophomore season due to injury.

Azzi has yet to play a full, healthy season. This past season was the closest, as she missed the first 4 games and then slowly ramped up her play as the season progressed. But she absolutely killed it in the FF. Fingers crossed that next season Azzi will be healthy from start to finish, which will give her a great opportunity to earn 1st team AA.
Based upon her recent training video (it's still May) my belief is that Azzi is aiming even higher.
 

Online statistics

Members online
46
Guests online
1,040
Total visitors
1,086

Forum statistics

Threads
164,098
Messages
4,382,257
Members
10,184
Latest member
ronmk


.
..
Top Bottom