Summary of the Situation

[pj]

Here's the lay of the land as I read the tea leaves.

The Big 12 desperately wants to get to 12 teams so it can have a championship game, which it thinks it needs not only for the game revenue but also because that will enhance its champion for the playoff selection process. They would like to take two ACC teams including FSU, and there is reciprocal interest, but ESPN is blocking it: ESPN won't give the Big 12 any money for adding FSU, so the move would dilute their revenue, and FSU would have to pay ACC exit fees too and needs help with it (no Florida state appropriations for that). They courted Notre Dame but lost to the ACC. BYU, the next most desirable candidate, won't play on Sunday's which Big 12 agreements with Fox require, and Fox isn't budging. That leaves Louisville and Cincy which don't excite Texas and Oklahoma.

The SEC would like to enter NC and Va with two teams, but they have the same problem raiding the ACC as the Big 12: ESPN is adamantly opposed and they would lose money.

The Big Ten and Pac 12 have their own money thanks to networks, so they have a free hand compared to the Big 12 or SEC or ACC, but the Pac 12 is geographically remote from the action and the Big Ten to date has been reluctant to grow beyond the Midwest and has been waiting to see the dominos fall.

So the main chess match has been ACC/ESPN pitted against NBE/NBC. NBE teams are essentially up for auction to the highest bidder:
- All NBE plus (probably) BYU and Air Force to NBC
- UConn/Rutgers to Big Ten or ACC
- Louisville/Cincy to Big 12 or ACC

ESPN has had great power over the ACC due to its ability to sweeten their below market contract. But ESPN may be running out of money to bribe the ACC with. It's getting close to a tipping point where further ACC expansion costs ESPN more money than it's worth, or else is sufficiently unfavorable to FSU that it provokes departure and/or lawsuit.

That means that time is running out on realignment. By next summer conference alignments should be frozen for the next 10-15 years until the TV contracts expire.

 

[coachcap]

Here's the lay of the land as I read the tea leaves.

The Big 12 desperately wants to get to 12 teams so it can have a championship game, which it thinks it needs not only for the game revenue but also because that will enhance its champion for the playoff selection process. They would like to take two ACC teams including FSU, and there is reciprocal interest, but ESPN is blocking it: ESPN won't give the Big 12 any money for adding FSU, so the move would dilute their revenue, and FSU would have to pay ACC exit fees too and needs help with it (no Florida state appropriations for that). They courted Notre Dame but lost to the ACC. BYU, the next most desirable candidate, won't play on Sunday's which Big 12 agreements with Fox require, and Fox isn't budging. That leaves Louisville and Cincy which don't excite Texas and Oklahoma.

The SEC would like to enter NC and Va with two teams, but they have the same problem raiding the ACC as the Big 12: ESPN is adamantly opposed and they would lose money.

The Big Ten and Pac 12 have their own money thanks to networks, so they have a free hand compared to the Big 12 or SEC or ACC, but the Pac 12 is geographically remote from the action and the Big Ten to date has been reluctant to grow beyond the Midwest and has been waiting to see the dominos fall.

So the main chess match has been ACC/ESPN pitted against NBE/NBC. NBE teams are essentially up for auction to the highest bidder:
- All NBE plus (probably) BYU and Air Force to NBC
- UConn/Rutgers to Big Ten or ACC
- Louisville/Cincy to Big 12 or ACC

ESPN has had great power over the ACC due to its ability to sweeten their below market contract. But ESPN may be running out of money to bribe the ACC with. It's getting close to a tipping point where further ACC expansion costs ESPN more money than it's worth, or else is sufficiently unfavorable to FSU that it provokes departure and/or lawsuit.

That means that time is running out on realignment. By next summer conference alignments should be frozen for the next 10-15 years until the TV contracts expire.

Do you think that the Mountaineers might petition for some Eastern teams to ease travel times, thereby opening the door for both UConn & Rutgers to the Big-12? (In my utopian world)

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

Do you think that the Mountaineers might petition for some Eastern teams to ease travel times, thereby opening the door for both UConn & Rutgers to the Big-12? (In my utopian world)

id think theyd petition for uc and ul first before us and ru.

 

[SAMCRO]

If WvU was lobbying for two, my guess is UL and RU are the two, and probably the most acceptable to B12. RU and their proximity to NYC (I know, nobody delivers NYC) and UL with good FB, BB, and gets them in SEC country.

 

[huskyjawz]

WV is the new guy, how much sway do they really have?

 

[SAMCRO]

About as much as everyone else not named Texas, which means none at all.

 

[FrostyNuggets]

Watching the ACC feed of today's football game. I see all the Billy-Bobs with their phony TV yuk-yuks and steady stream of car part commercials, I find it quite frankly sickening.

 

[uconnell]

find homerism going on too long so turned on the radio, at least Joe D calls them as he sees them.

 

[uc1974]

The ACC announcers were OK. There was a little home BS but it wasn't horrible. Most of their customers are ACC fans anyway. SNY just picked up the ACC announcers and feed and left in the commercials, too--Food Lion and Bojangles chicken were the most obvious. Wonder what we get next week.

 

[UCFBfan]

The ACC announcers were OK. There was a little home BS but it wasn't horrible. Most of their customers are ACC fans anyway. SNY just picked up the ACC announcers and feed and left in the commercials, too--Food Lion and Bojangles chicken were the most obvious. Wonder what we get next week.

Nothing. The games not on TV. I think ESPN3 is the only option so I hope everyone has their computers loaded and ready. Or dust off the radios.

 

[RS9999X]

That means that time is running out on realignment. By next summer conference alignments should be frozen for the next 10-15 years until the TV contracts expire.

I think you are half right there.

These teams are seeing money they never dreamed of under these new contracts. We might see contracts reopened in 5 to 7 years. Maybe.

The landscape is unclear. There's no real consensus on teams to add. The B12 looked at BYU and Louisville. The ACC looked at UConn. The BiG looked at Rutgers.

In 7 years USF and Houston might be the two hot programs. I don't see much upside here with the ACC telling everyone they are set now that the threat of a ND/Big East Yankee Bowl opposite the Orange Bowl is dead.

 

[UConnDan97]

Watching the ACC feed of today's football game. I see all the Billy-Bobs with their phony TV yuk-yuks and steady stream of car part commercials, I find it quite frankly sickening.

It's funny that you say that, because I was thinking the same exact thing today! It looked like it was the lost scenes from Napoleon Dynamite, it really did. I was blown away that those were "professional" tv announcers. The field announcer may have been the worst of them all. He looked like he just strolled out of a local Sonic with his baseball cap on slightly to the side. Wow...

 

[AJC88]

I don't think the big 12 desperately wants to get to 12 just for a championship game. Why bring in a Louisville if its not going to up the $$$? They don't want to split money more ways without a big name, so I really don't see them jumping at anyone not having a national brand name.

 

[Jericho]

Here's the lay of the land as I read the tea leaves.

The Big 12 desperately wants to get to 12 teams so it can have a championship game, which it thinks it needs not only for the game revenue but also because that will enhance its champion for the playoff selection process. They would like to take two ACC teams including FSU, and there is reciprocal interest, but ESPN is blocking it: ESPN won't give the Big 12 any money for adding FSU, so the move would dilute their revenue, and FSU would have to pay ACC exit fees too and needs help with it (no Florida state appropriations for that). They courted Notre Dame but lost to the ACC. BYU, the next most desirable candidate, won't play on Sunday's which Big 12 agreements with Fox require, and Fox isn't budging. That leaves Louisville and Cincy which don't excite Texas and Oklahoma.

The SEC would like to enter NC and Va with two teams, but they have the same problem raiding the ACC as the Big 12: ESPN is adamantly opposed and they would lose money.

The Big Ten and Pac 12 have their own money thanks to networks, so they have a free hand compared to the Big 12 or SEC or ACC, but the Pac 12 is geographically remote from the action and the Big Ten to date has been reluctant to grow beyond the Midwest and has been waiting to see the dominos fall.

So the main chess match has been ACC/ESPN pitted against NBE/NBC. NBE teams are essentially up for auction to the highest bidder:
- All NBE plus (probably) BYU and Air Force to NBC
- UConn/Rutgers to Big Ten or ACC
- Louisville/Cincy to Big 12 or ACC

ESPN has had great power over the ACC due to its ability to sweeten their below market contract. But ESPN may be running out of money to bribe the ACC with. It's getting close to a tipping point where further ACC expansion costs ESPN more money than it's worth, or else is sufficiently unfavorable to FSU that it provokes departure and/or lawsuit.

That means that time is running out on realignment. By next summer conference alignments should be frozen for the next 10-15 years until the TV contracts expire.

I'm not sure any of this is actually true or this is just an assembly of random Internet rumors.

For one, if the SEC really wanted ACC teams, I don't know why it wasn't done yesterday. Or really 6 months ago. Or 1 year ago. They are a rich and powerful conference (and certainly ahead of the Big 12, which is why they got A&M and Mizzou). I don't know how much the SEC absolutely has to get into North Carolina or Virginia either. The argument is basically that the SEC wants to expand their footprint into two populous states. But if footprint is so important, why does everyone ignore the ACC - the conference with the biggest population footprint? You can't have it both ways. If the footprint is so important to warrant expansion, why isn't Rutgers in a better conference? this argument seems overplayed.

As to the Big 12, not sure how eager they are to go to 12 or how eager anyone is to join them. You had 4 major schools flee the conference in a little over a year and yet schools will want to join that? If you West Virginia, it's still a step up. But if you're not outside the power conferences, what's the benefit? Even if the Big 12 has righted its ship and got a grant of rights, it doesn't mean issues go away forever. What happens if problems come up 10 years down the road? Clemson seemed to do everything to deny any movement. FSU was less clear, but there were some, including the school President, that were opposed.

The Big 12 remains top heavy. Texas and Oklahoma are king level programs. But all the mid-level schools fled - Nebraska, A&M, Mizzou... If the Big 12 broke up, would anyone grab any of the remaining 8 schools? Some of them do have good football, like Kansas State or West Virginia. But the SEC already passed on West Virginia for Mizzou and I don't see how anyone wants K-State. It seems Texas is not pushing for 12 schools. Doesn't mean is won't happen, but it doesn't seem like it has to happen and has to happen now.

As to ESPN, they make crazy money. They are the most profitable part of Disney. They;re throwing away $15 per year on the Longhorn Network. If you really got down to it, they can throw away many more millions if they really wanted to keep the ACC together.

If there's any movement, it will likely be surrounding the Big 12. The Big 10 won't do anything. They need two teams to make any expansion worthwhile and I doubt they even see one school they want out there. I don't see the SEC doing anything. The only question is what the Big 12 wants to do. They seem interested enough in Louisville, they just don't have a good second team to make it happen. I don't see Cincy being it. BYU should be it, but they are crazy in Utah. Maybe the Big12 could be sold on Rutgers or UConn. I suspect Rutgers is first in line, however. All of which is to say things don't look great for UConn. Which kind of sucks, because I'd like to see UConn in a better conference.

I suppose its possible the ACC comes calling. It's also possible the Big 12 takes UConn with Louisville. And its possible something even more unlikely happens. but none of these are likely occurrences.

The good news is good basketball does not need a power conference. Gonzaga has shown that. And the Big East is still a good basketball conference anyhow. Football is much less certain, however.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Here's the lay of the land as I read the tea leaves.

The Big 12 desperately wants to get to 12 teams so it can have a championship game, which it thinks it needs not only for the game revenue but also because that will enhance its champion for the playoff selection process. They would like to take two ACC teams including FSU, and there is reciprocal interest, but ESPN is blocking it: ESPN won't give the Big 12 any money for adding FSU, so the move would dilute their revenue, and FSU would have to pay ACC exit fees too and needs help with it (no Florida state appropriations for that). They courted Notre Dame but lost to the ACC. BYU, the next most desirable candidate, won't play on Sunday's which Big 12 agreements with Fox require, and Fox isn't budging. That leaves Louisville and Cincy which don't excite Texas and Oklahoma.
I am not so sure that you are correct here. Texas (as they view a conference championship game as an additional chance to get knocked off the perch, hurting national title hopes in a very good season) has been adamantly opposed to expanding beyond ten. OU is somewhat onf favor of expansion but would need names with considerable presence (leading to the FSU rumors) in order to be on board. The rest of the conference does not have sufficient clout to get anything done without Texas or a fully committed OU on their side.

The SEC would like to enter NC and Va with two teams, but they have the same problem raiding the ACC as the Big 12: ESPN is adamantly opposed and they would lose money.
There have been rumors to this for a while but I'm not so sure that the SEC has had anything beyond cursory interest here. If they really wanted to expand into NC & Va they would have done so as it would take a heartbeat before they heard yes. My guess is that the SEC realizes that their next expansion (to 16) will be their last play for quite some time and they wont make this play until they are sure they've chosen the best candidates.

The Big Ten and Pac 12 have their own money thanks to networks, so they have a free hand compared to the Big 12 or SEC or ACC, but the Pac 12 is geographically remote from the action and the Big Ten to date has been reluctant to grow beyond the Midwest and has been waiting to see the dominos fall.
The B1G now has a new variable (PSU's fall from a seat near the top of the football world). This may help in the overall outlook on the BIG expanding (they may now feel more of a need to add markets) but as they were one of the few B1G schools who wanted to expand eastward, their fall from grace may hurt BE hopefuls (UConn, Rutgers) more than it helps.

So the main chess match has been ACC/ESPN pitted against NBE/NBC. NBE teams are essentially up for auction to the highest bidder:
- All NBE plus (probably) BYU and Air Force to NBC
- UConn/Rutgers to Big Ten or ACC
- Louisville/Cincy to Big 12 or ACC
I have no clue as to how resilient those at NBC sports will be under Comcast's leadership but when they were owned by GE they were notorious for (outside of a few of Ebersole's pet projects) caving in early when competition arrived. My gut tells me that ESPN's recent play was a message to NBC: "don't get into the all sports network business unless you are willing to play hardball!" and that NBC will say "We don't have the stomach to play this game".

ESPN has had great power over the ACC due to its ability to sweeten their below market contract. But ESPN may be running out of money to bribe the ACC with. It's getting close to a tipping point where further ACC expansion costs ESPN more money than it's worth, or else is sufficiently unfavorable to FSU that it provokes departure and/or lawsuit.
One thing that I find quite interesting (I pointed this out in another thread without response) is that the supposed rumors (ACC sources, trying to rub our noses into what has transpired) were that ESPN told the B-12 that there would be no additional money for adding FSU & Clemson yet later rumors were that they would pay well for taking any two of the five recommended BE schools. I take rumors such as these with a grain of salt but if there is any truth to this, how can ESPN justify two BE schools adding value to the B-12 when FSU & Clemson could not? How does the B-12 react to being told by a business that the business partner is basically determining their policy and economic strategy?

That means that time is running out on realignment. By next summer conference alignments should be frozen for the next 10-15 years until the TV contracts expire.
I again disagree (although I easily could be wrong). B-12 possibly excepted, I believe we are going to be in a dead period for a couple of years (perhaps more) until the B1G decides to again expand and the SEC finally selects members 15 & 16.

 

[pj]

I'm not sure any of this is actually true or this is just an assembly of random Internet rumors.

For one, if the SEC really wanted ACC teams, I don't know why it wasn't done yesterday. Or really 6 months ago. Or 1 year ago. They are a rich and powerful conference (and certainly ahead of the Big 12, which is why they got A&M and Mizzou).

One thing that I find quite interesting (I pointed this out in another thread without response) is that the supposed rumors (ACC sources, trying to rub our noses into what has transpired) were that ESPN told the B-12 that there would be no additional money for adding FSU & Clemson yet later rumors were that they would pay well for taking any two of the five recommended BE schools. I take rumors such as these with a grain of salt but if there is any truth to this, how can ESPN justify two BE schools adding value to the B-12 when FSU & Clemson could not? How does the B-12 react to being told by a business that the business partner is basically determining their policy and economic strategy?

These both have the same answer, given to us by Gene DeFilippo: “We always keep our television partners close to us ... TV - ESPN - is the one who told us what to do.’’

The ACC, SEC, and Big 12 are all ESPN properties and ESPN has de facto veto power over what they do. ESPN has paid market rates for the SEC and Big 12 -- maybe above market for the Big 12 -- and below market rates for the ACC. So close to 100% of its profits may come from that ACC property. The last thing ESPN wants is to see the ACC demolished by raids from conferences it funds at a higher rate.

The very reason FSU is interested in moving is the reason ESPN doesn't want them to move. FSU would gain $10 mn per year and it would come straight out of ESPN's pocket.

So ESPN isn't permitting the SEC to raid the ACC -- but if the ACC got raided separately and dissolved on its own, the SEC would love to pick up some key pieces. The Big12 would love to get to 12 with major properties, but ESPN won't permit them to take from the ACC -- at least they won't give the conference more money if they do, so the move would be dilutive.

On the other hand, if they raid the Big East, they are taking properties from NBC and there is new revenue to ESPN. The extra money comes from what ESPN would have been willing to pay for the Big East, plus a premium to prevent NBC Sports Net from emerging as a competitor.

How does the Big 12 react to domination by ESPN? The same way the ACC and SEC reacted. Thank you for all that money you've showered on us ESPN! We won't cross you.

 

[Marty Jackson]

These both have the same answer, given to us by Gene DeFilippo: “We always keep our television partners close to us ... TV - ESPN - is the one who told us what to do.’’

The ACC, SEC, and Big 12 are all ESPN properties and ESPN has de facto veto power over what they do. ESPN has paid market rates for the SEC and Big 12 -- maybe above market for the Big 12 -- and below market rates for the ACC. So close to 100% of its profits may come from that ACC property. The last thing ESPN wants is to see the ACC demolished by raids from conferences it funds at a higher rate.

The very reason FSU is interested in moving is the reason ESPN doesn't want them to move. FSU would gain $10 mn per year and it would come straight out of ESPN's pocket.

So ESPN isn't permitting the SEC to raid the ACC -- but if the ACC got raided separately and dissolved on its own, the SEC would love to pick up some key pieces. The Big12 would love to get to 12 with major properties, but ESPN won't permit them to take from the ACC -- at least they won't give the conference more money if they do, so the move would be dilutive.

On the other hand, if they raid the Big East, they are taking properties from NBC and there is new revenue to ESPN. The extra money comes from what ESPN would have been willing to pay for the Big East, plus a premium to prevent NBC Sports Net from emerging as a competitor.

How does the Big 12 react to domination by ESPN? The same way the ACC and SEC reacted. Thank you for all that money you've showered on us ESPN! We won't cross you.

I think there is specific reason for the Big10 to be patient. They have a contract that is the next to be renegotiated ('16)... They also have a Big10 network that may replace any network contract they currently have. Adding any schools now is too uncertain.

Also, the conferences that are making moves are in the most precarious situation. The BE, Big12 and ACC were all teetering on extinction so they needed to make a move or two (5 or 6 with the BE). Interesting perspective that I haven't seen is that the ACC was the only conference to cave to ND. This actually says alot about their position. Sure they get 5 ND games, but they also are giving ND a lot in return. Something the Big would not offer. Someone did post, The ACC is now a hybrid model.

I think the Big12 has to be the next conference to make a move if anything is going to happen before the Big starts their negotiations. And that will determine how badly they want 12 teams. Regardless, it makes no sense to act now. The schools they can get are on the upswing (UofL specifically). Let them continue to grow in the BE, get a BCS game or two, and then take them when they have more value and cache. That's probably true with any target schools the Big12 is looking at.

 

[gars44]

I think there is specific reason for the Big10 to be patient. They have a contract that is the next to be renegotiated ('16)... They also have a Big10 network that may replace any network contract they currently have. Adding any schools now is too uncertain.

Also, the conferences that are making moves are in the most precarious situation. The BE, Big12 and ACC were all teetering on extinction so they needed to make a move or two (5 or 6 with the BE). Interesting perspective that I haven't seen is that the ACC was the only conference to cave to ND. This actually says alot about their position. Sure they get 5 ND games, but they also are giving ND a lot in return. Something the Big would not offer. Someone did post, The ACC is now a hybrid model.

I think the Big12 has to be the next conference to make a move if anything is going to happen before the Big starts their negotiations. And that will determine how badly they want 12 teams. Regardless, it makes no sense to act now. The schools they can get are on the upswing (UofL specifically). Let them continue to grow in the BE, get a BCS game or two, and then take them when they have more value and cache. That's probably true with any target schools the Big12 is looking at.

I think there's way too much football on TV right now. ESPN is going to get killed on the profit margin in a couple of years. There's a lot of things to watch on TV, and ESPN has done a great job consolidating its position in all of this, but watch the ka-ching figures in a couple of years. This is a sense I have, because I have been a big consumer for years, and I'm kind of tired of watching. I flipped into the ND game last night, and remarked how good BK is and how well he has turned that program around, going into MSU and beating them bad, and all that, but no real interest in the game. So, yeah, I think everyone is going to be real, real patient for a while. And they should be.

 

[Adios]

If all of these conferences go to 16, we'll be included. We know that much. We did put on a good show yesterday in football.

 

[RS9999X]

Face the reality--these conferences have some digesting to do as the new television model (streaming) rolls out. After the SEC confirms their new contract upgrade and the Champions Bowl details. We know the ACC Orange Bowl deal: It's the ACC V. Notre Dame if ND is a top 20 team or some other such requirement in the years when the Orange doesn't host the semi-final.

ESPN can skim all the content they need for ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 from what they have with little competition. They can sell mountains of regional content. And they still have some leftover for ESPNU. They will concede to NBC Ice Skating and Nascar and any other events NBC creates, orchestrates or contracts with UFC or WWE or Golf for non-Football lovers.

If one BE team actually pulls enough in the rating to hurt ESPN and/or consistently creates problems for the new 5-conference BCS structure then that can be dealt with in time on a per team basis and find that one team a new home come 2020.

The only logical move from here is divestment come 2025. Five 10-team conferences each playing 9 games. Kiss the weakest 13 teams good-bye.

 

[junglehusky]

The only logical move from here is divestment come 2025. Five 10-team conferences each playing 9 games. Kiss the weakest 13 teams good-bye.

Nooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!! then we'll never get to find out how UConn stacks up against Nevada-Reno and UTSA!! I had my whole weekend in October 2029 planned, now I gotta find something else to do.

 

[CAHUSKY]

Nooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!! then we'll never get to find out how UConn stacks up against Nevada-Reno and UTSA!! I had my whole weekend in October 2029 planned, now I gotta find something else to do.

For what it's worth, Nevada would probably have beaten Uconn 3 of the past 4 years. Back off my home town wolf pack!

 

[HuskyHawk]

For what it's worth, Nevada would probably have beaten Uconn 3 of the past 4 years. Back off my home town wolf pack!

Yes, and I suspect that if you put Nevada and New Mexico in say, the Big XII, the recruiting would jump considerably, and so would attendance. Which would lead to revenue, investments in facilities and pretty soon you'd have programs that were quite competitive. The Big XII should be the conference of the southwest and mountain states (Colorado should never have left, Utah should have been invited), especially with Missouri now gone.

 

[The Funster]

There is no way to avoid it. For the 16 team conferences scenario to exist, the power conferences are going to have to take schools with lesser reputations, athletically and academically. If the Big XII is going to look to the west they can effectively shut the Pac out.

 

[Pudge]

Yes, and I suspect that if you put Nevada and New Mexico in say, the Big XII, the recruiting would jump considerably, and so would attendance. Which would lead to revenue, investments in facilities and pretty soon you'd have programs that were quite competitive. The Big XII should be the conference of the southwest and mountain states (Colorado should never have left, Utah should have been invited), especially with Missouri now gone.

But there is the RUB ... it won't happen. The Cartel ... heavily weighted NOW to North Carolina & Alabama & Texas ... won't allow the new entrants (totally absent a fast-growing state of Nevada) to enter. No more New England, excepting that awful bunch of Jesuits.

This will not stand. Why? Because in Economic theory, Cartels always break apart because of cheating. Someone allows the hole.