Stuff I'm thinking about heading into the NCAA Tourney

[alexrgct]

Breanna Stewart has a chance to validate that she's NPOY. She's been making a late run at the award at a time when Sims's numbers dropped off a bit. Meanwhile, Stanford had some bad losses, enough that Chiney is a less compelling argument. Chiney has carried a good but not truly great team, whereas Breanna has been the best player on a potentially historic team. In any case, if Stewie wins the award, she'll be as motivated as she's been this season, and if she doesn't, she might just have a chip on her shoulder. Additionally, the Wade and the AP are up for grabs. Is it possible Stewie wins one?

Speaking of historic, this team is light years ahead of where it was a year ago. In 2013, UConn had lost four games with the criticism "they can't close" being spread prevalently. And then UConn turned around and won the requisite six games in a row, all by 18 or more (five games by 26 or more). Clearly, this program has a culture of winning at this time of year, and Geno will have his kids ready.

If UConn were to lose a game, how would it happen? Other than the injury bug, it's difficult to say. The inside-outside offense of UConn is such that you can't take away much on defense without conceding too much else. Meanwhile, UConn's defense is stifling. All five starters are capable of carrying the team for stretches. You can have a game plan to suppress one of them, but what do you do about the others? I think at the business end of the tournament (i.e., the national semifinals and finals), UConn would run into some damn fine teams with some damn fine coaches who will have the best possible gameplan. If UConn wins anyway, we can say the team was unbeatable.

It's tempting to compare this UConn team to 2002 and 2009, as the body of work (IF AND ONLY IF THEY WIN THE NC) may just be more impressive on paper than UConn's in either of those seasons. There are other criteria for this debate, however. That being said, I think everyone will relish that debate. It would certainly be a great debate to be able to have.

There was a time when the prevailing sentiment was that teams should be soaked in because you might never see another like it again. And then instead, we saw another team that resembled previous great UConn teams. This squad has great players who will share places on the Huskies of Honor wall with the other all-timers. Bria and Stef already are on there, and KML and Breanna will be there too. This season can end in three ways: One is a shocking and painful loss, in which case Uconn will have fielded its greatest team not to win a national championship. Alternatively Uconn could win the NC, prove its worthiness on the program's great continuum, and prove itself as the gift that keeps on giving. Or perhaps UConn just might win it all in a manner we may never see again. In that case, you better soak it in until you're drenched.

Jeez, is it Selection Monday yet?

 

[DavidK]

For player of the year, I expect Stewart to win but wouldn't be shocked if Simms or Chinney won it.

How would we lose a game? Another high quality team would have to play an amazing game and we would have to struggle. In last years Louisville upset over Baylor everyone talks about how big of an upset it was, but forgets to mention how Baylor almost came back to win it. The Cards were up 17 with 7 1/2 minutes left and with questionable calls down the stretch (which is to be expected) it still was a close game. Baylor had the ball with 20 seconds left down by one.

Also if we did lose how would it happen? The opponent has to believe in them selves and each other and play like it. I'm not saying it's impossible, but that it is highly unlikely

For where this teams ranks all time if we win the NC, hard to tell because last year we had 4 loses and seamed like every game down the stretch we chocked against Notre Dame. It wasn't till the Final Four when we won it all that this team truly became one of the great ones. This year we haven't really been tested down the stretch, with the Baylor game coming closest to a close finish. Where I think we showed our toughness and focus more so was the game at Lousiville being down early and the crowd was pumped. Our girls stayed focused, and got the job at hand done.

Point is anyone can speculate where this team will end up as one of the all time greats, and I think they will be up there, but you have to finish what you started for that to hold true.

My prediction? We win and just like last years NC game, the general fan loses interest in the second half with the lead in the 20's and 30's. Louisville could get a 4th shot, we could play Tennessee in the final four in their home state, or Notre Dame for the Championship, it doesn't matter. This team is so hard to guard and on top of that the nations best defense.

But overall I agree with you in almost everything stated, especially is it Selection Monday yet?

 

[semper]

My only fear is that some coach asks that we get roughed up and someone gets hurt. I just don't want any more injuries. I think that is the only way to beat us, to hurt us, and I don't want that to happen.

 

[UcMiami]

I think DavidK hits it - you have to struggle, the other team has to play out of their minds good, and throw in a hatchet job by the refs (not that they are biased in their calls, just that they decide the game is about them and they call 50 fouls.)
I think this team most resembles that 2002 squad in terms of just an amazingly talented starting line-up. They could easily end up being all selected in the first five of their respective drafts with a couple of them going #1 - the only difference then with 2002 starters is that four of the five were seniors.

 

[HGN]

Any team is beatable....Including UConn and ND. In UConn's case another team would have to force us to go to our bench for a long stretch. Our bench is our Achilles heel. If we can stay out of foul trouble , and the refs call a fair game, we can go all the way.

On the other hand ND is very good as well. And they are deep. And they too really haven't been challenged. UConn will challenge them and make them stare Defeat right in the face. It will be interesting to see if they blink. I think they will .

 

[MilfordHusky]

How can we lose? Injury, obviously. Please, God, no injuries. A series of really bad foul calls, especially against Notre Dame. Really cold outside and FT shooting. The other team getting hot despite good defense. I think it'll take 2 or 3 of those. My only concern is officiating in a ND game. They are very good, but can't beat us at full strength. Because they are notorious floppers, they will try to bait the refs to make questionable calls against us. I dislike the guys in green more than the ones in orange, partly because of that.

 

[Sonny44]

I think the refs we get in the finals won't be suckered in by flops.

 

[dtbtbtb]

UConn can be beat by one or probably two of the below:
a. Injury to any of the starting 5
b. The other team shooting lights out
c. Stewie and Bria have a bad game
d. The refs take Stewie and Dolson out of the game with fouls

It seems to me that the strategy that teams (the realy good ones) will try in order to beat UConn will be to be very phisical with Stewie, dribble penetrate to the basket to try and draw fouls on Stewie and Dolson, double team off MoJeff for her to prove she can hit the outside shot, and pray

 

[DavidK]

UConn can be beat by one or probably two of the below:
a. Injury to any of the starting 5
b. The other team shooting lights out
c. Stewie and Bria have a bad game
d. The refs take Stewie and Dolson out of the game with fouls

It seems to me that the strategy that teams (the realy good ones) will try in order to beat UConn will be to be very phisical with Stewie, dribble penetrate to the basket to try and draw fouls on Stewie and Dolson, double team off MoJeff for her to prove she can hit the outside shot, and pray

me

I think she has proven she can hit that shot if you leave her open, so i wouldnt use that strategy

 

[JRRRJ]

UConn can be beat by one or probably two of the below:
a. Injury to any of the starting 5
b. The other team shooting lights out
c. Stewie and Bria have a bad game
d. The refs take Stewie and Dolson out of the game with fouls

It seems to me that the strategy that teams (the realy good ones) will try in order to beat UConn will be to be very phisical with Stewie, dribble penetrate to the basket to try and draw fouls on Stewie and Dolson, double team off MoJeff for her to prove she can hit the outside shot, and pray

Y'know, I've seen this strategy touted a lot. When I watch the games, I see that the lanes to the basket just aren't there due to suffocating man-to-man coverage, great switching on picks, and mobile posts. Even when the opposing guards are quick and agile. The team defense has this one covered.

IMHO, the only way to score a lot of points against this team is for a good-passing, disciplined team to have a career night in mid- & long-range shooting percentage.

 

[Tenspro2002]

UConn can be beat by one or probably two of the below:
a. Injury to any of the starting 5
b. The other team shooting lights out
c. Stewie and Bria have a bad game
d. The refs take Stewie and Dolson out of the game with fouls

It seems to me that the strategy that teams (the realy good ones) will try in order to beat UConn will be to be very phisical with Stewie, dribble penetrate to the basket to try and draw fouls on Stewie and Dolson, double team off MoJeff for her to prove she can hit the outside shot, and pray

I think this is exactly right, and it will take two of the above. We can overcome any one of those bad scenarios, but multiple of them could give us trouble.

I really think the only way we lose is a combination of b and c, where they shoot like 11 of 21 from 3, and we shoot like 3 of 18. Our interior defense is excellent, I'm not too worried about that. Our offense can become stagnant from time to time, and if Bria is turning it over a bunch with her iffy handle, and Stewie's shots aren't falling, it could be a long night.

Against anyone other than Notre Dame, it would take a perfect storm of circumstances. And even against them, us losing would require one or more low-probability (negative) outcomes.