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OT: Stock Market

Javjudah said:
XON
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Giving a ticker doesn't mean anything without DD or time. Aug 31 you would have bought at 15.38ish - and dropped to 14ish until today.

Next time provide the date of the jump please (only pm me)
 
huskyinfl said:
Giving a ticker doesn't mean anything without DD or time. Aug 31 you would have bought at 15.38ish - and dropped to 14ish until today.

Next time provide the date of the jump please (only pm me)
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Things don't go up in a straight line.
 
One time in college I almost invested in industrial hemp penny stocks. One skyrocket from like 5 cents to nearly 15 bucks in a few short months or something before it returned to its original spot. I’ve never really been a bright investor, I’m better at spending
 
Don’t day trade.

Put money aside from your first source of income and open a Roth IRA.

If you have a 401K through your employer, maximize the employer matching contribution.
 
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huskyinfl said:
Giving a ticker doesn't mean anything without DD or time. Aug 31 you would have bought at 15.38ish - and dropped to 14ish until today.

Next time provide the date of the jump please (only pm me)
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My average price was $14.22. Sold at $19.40. Will re-buy at/around $17 on a pull back.
 
Drip twice. Drip money consistently, every two weeks per pay check, into quality companies with plus dividend yields and DRIP aka re invest the dividends in that stock. Up market or down long term. Do that for half of your portfolio anyway. Just an example is SO.....the Southern Company.
 
Most people agree that nothing performs better than stocks long term but consider the bear market of 2007-2009 and specific sector major declines. If your are very close to retirement and that hit happens it can be difficult to recover, in fact I know of someone that happened to who had to delay their retirement by 5 years. Interest rates are going to head up and there are more conservative fixed but not sexy strategies for those who wish to sleep soundly at night (that by the way includes market exposure for part of the portfolio). Warren Buffet says stay in which makes sense long term but what about taking a huge hit if you are only 1 or 2 years into retirement. It could be devastating.
 
Read Graham's Security Analysis or Intelligent Investor, take a small amount and go after it and have fun. The rest of it.. low cost index funds and hold. Also... long pork bellies
 
I have spent over 40 years on Wall Street as an institutional money manager and strategist. I will echo those that cautioned against day trading. Some are successful at it but most are not. I would also caution that we are almost ten years into this bull market and that's longer than most bull cycles last. We are in a sweet spot with a strong economy, strong earnings and still relatively low interest rates and inflation. Market looks ready to enter a final parabolic stage that could take the S&P to 3300 or higher by year-end. But risks are building. There is $250 trillion in debt and more than $1 quadrillion in derivatives in the global financial system. We have never had this degree of leverage before, not even close. Leverage works both ways. It enhances returns on the way up but will hit the economy and markets very hard on the way down. With this level of leverage, the next bear market is likely to be worse than 2008. So some good opportunities still but I think 2019 could be much more problematic.
 
The debt numbers don't scare me as much as the derivative numbers do, because I don't think anyone fully understands how those markets fully interact with our economy. I don't know how anybody could.
 
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Uconnfanatic said:
I have spent over 40 years on Wall Street as an institutional money manager and strategist. I will echo those that cautioned against day trading. Some are successful at it but most are not. I would also caution that we are almost ten years into this bull market and that's longer than most bull cycles last. We are in a sweet spot with a strong economy, strong earnings and still relatively low interest rates and inflation. Market looks ready to enter a final parabolic stage that could take the S&P to 3300 or higher by year-end. But risks are building. There is $250 trillion in debt and more than $1 quadrillion in derivatives in the global financial system. We have never had this degree of leverage before, not even close. Leverage works both ways. It enhances returns on the way up but will hit the economy and markets very hard on the way down. With this level of leverage, the next bear market is likely to be worse than 2008. So some good opportunities still but I think 2019 could be much more problematic.
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Any defensive play suggestions?

A question that's we're discussing at work is, if the correction is huge, where do you go defensively?

With interest rates rising, bonds will be negatively affected.

Precious metals look like they are due for a correction as well and emerging markets are scary.

Real estate looks scary as well, there does not seem to be any place to play defensively.

My guess would be bear market index funds.
 
uconndogs said:
The debt numbers don't scare me as much as the derivative numbers do, because I don't think anyone fully understands how those markets fully interact with our economy. I don't know how anybody could.
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We are in uncharted waters when it comes to derivatives. You are right that no one rally knows what the full impact of derivatives will be in the next downturn. What is likely is that they will exacerbate the downturn and cause a steeper, faster bear market unwind. Won't be pretty.
 
Real estate is safer this time around in most places. There is a shortage of housing and pricing is more reasonable than it was during the 2006-2009 debacle along the coasts with the exception of a handful of big cities.

I am more of a believer in quality dividend stocks in utilities and other consumer staples. As a long term strategy, you’ll build up a nice income for retirement with these stocks and they outperform the market during recession. You won’t hit it big with a Qualcomm, Apple or Google but you’ll sleep soundly. Take a chunk, like 30% and put that in an index fund. Playing with individual stocks is really only worthwhile if you have a good analyst sneaking you tips he has from the office. Otherwise, I just can’t see it being more productive than going out and earning money and letting the pros invest it in diversified funds.
 
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Uconnfanatic said:
We are in uncharted waters when it comes to derivatives. You are right that no one rally knows what the full impact of derivatives will be in the next downturn. What is likely is that they will exacerbate the downturn and cause a steeper, faster bear market unwind. Won't be pretty.
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What I never understood was 2008 seemed to be massively leveraged up on debt and derivatives and it almost melted everything. And it seems like people rushed right back in to do it all over again. 1 quadrillion is a fascinatingly horrific number to think about.
 
B1GEast said:
Any defensive play suggestions?

A question that's we're discussing at work is, if the correction is huge, where do you go defensively?

With interest rates rising, bonds will be negatively affected.

Precious metals look like they are due for a correction as well and emerging markets are scary.

Real estate looks scary as well, there does not seem to be any place to play defensively.

My guess would be bear market index funds.
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I am in a small minority who thinks long-term Treasury bonds will trade up to significant new highs next year as a recession and bear market sends investors across the globe scurrying for the safety of the U.S. government guarantee. The same doesn't hold true for corporate bonds, particularly lower quality corporate bonds as they will likely be hit hard in the recession as spread widen. I actually like gold a lot here and think it is likely to outperform most assets for the next several months. But beyond this rally gold is likely to trade back down to new lows during the coming bear market so it's not likely to protect investors during that downturn. I don't like real estate here. Cycle appear to be nearing a top.
 
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Hamms30 said:
What I never understood was 2008 seemed to be massively leveraged up on debt and derivatives and it almost melted everything. And it seems like people rushed right back in to do it all over again. 1 quadrillion is a fascinatingly horrific number to think about.
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We are back to that level at most things if not more.
  • US GDP up something like 40%; unfortunately, that's against a national debt increase of 120% or so.
  • That doesn't even include the unfunded liabilities (some ridiculous trillion dollar number).
  • Housing debt similar levels
  • Student debt massively higher, unsustainable bubble.
  • etc
This is all on top of a worldwide national debt increase north of 60% iirc. Not to mention the quadrillions of derivatives floating around in the world which will do god knows what in a downturn.

And this has been the 2nd longest expansion in US history. We are overdue.

The big difference is we don't have the same types of tools available to fight it. Deficit is already massive, so pumping cash in the system is going to have some seriously detrimental effects. And interest rates can't go much lower (they are desperately trying to raise them now in anticipation of needing to lower them in the not so far future).
 
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uconnphil2016 said:
One time in college I almost invested in industrial hemp penny stocks. One skyrocket from like 5 cents to nearly 15 bucks in a few short months or something before it returned to its original spot. I’ve never really been a bright investor, I’m better at spending
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You gotta stop smoking phil. Clear that head up and think straight.

FYI I sold bitcoin at $10. hahahahaha
 
intlzncster said:
We are back to that level at most things if not more.
  • US GDP up something like 40%; unfortunately, that's against a national debt increase of 120% or so.
  • That doesn't even include the unfunded liabilities (some ridiculous trillion dollar number).
  • Housing debt similar levels
  • Student debt massively higher, unsustainable bubble.
This is all on top of a worldwide national debt increase north of 60% iirc.

And this has been the 2nd longest expansion in US history. We are overdue.

The big difference is we don't have the same types of tools available to fight it. Deficit is already massive, so pumping cash in the system is going to have some seriously detrimental effects. And interest rates can't go much lower (they are desperately trying to raise them now in anticipation of needing to lower them in the not so far future).
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Ray Dalio and some others have been hammering away at a crash worse than the Great Depression coming and nobody has done anything about it.
 
Uconnfanatic said:
I am in a small minority who thinks long-term Treasury bonds will trade up to significant new highs next year as a recession and bear market sends investors across the globe scurrying for the safety of the U.S. government guarantee. The same doesn't hold true for corporate bonds, particularly lower quality corporate bonds as they will likely be hit hard in the recession as spread widen. I actually like gold a lot here and think it is likely to outperform most assets for the next several months. But beyond this rally gold is likely to trade back down to new lows during the coming bear market so it's not likely to protect investors during that downturn. I don't like real estate here. Cycle appear to be nearing a top.
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Agree with a lot of this. I think gold will rise, eventually spike, but find a new trading channel higher than it is now (1600/1900/whatever it might be) similar to how it has behaved for the last 20 yrs or so. Historically low interest rates being a driver here.

I'm not interested in Treasury bonds long term, but they could very well be successful short/intermediate. I agree with the safe haven play, as the US will be the last to go, but it will go. I just have no idea what time frame that will be. I'm not big on it only because of the uncertainty and interconnectedness of all the world economies.

For myself, I'm busy raising cash atm, as good buys will be available in the the next few years in many different markets.
 
Depends on your current income and how comfortable you are to shell out __ amount of money each week/month to trading. Building a really good portfolio takes time.

I would advise against day trading, its very risky and like others have pointed out you are behind the 8 ball. Your little app or account on Robinhood or Charles Schwab will always be delayed and you'll be suckered into wrong selections.

What I've done in the past is stay with blue chips that give good dividends. Its probably not the best strategy, but its worked out OK for me.
 
superjohn said:
Ray Dalio and some others have been hammering away at a crash worse than the Great Depression coming and nobody has done anything about it.
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And if we are being honest, nobody will, as it's not politically expedient. Not beforehand anyway*. Sad but true.

*the only thing being done from this perspective, is the Fed trying to raise rates minimally at best, without hurting momentum, in anticipation of having to lower them during the next downturn.
 
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intlzncster said:
Agree with a lot of this. I think gold will rise, eventually spike, but find a new trading channel higher than it is now (1600/1900/whatever it might be) similar to how it has behaved for the last 20 yrs or so. Historically low interest rates being a driver here.

I'm not interested in Treasury bonds long term, but they could very well be successful short/intermediate. I agree with the safe haven play, as the US will be the last to go, but it will go. I just have no idea what time frame that will be. I'm not big on it only because of the uncertainty and interconnectedness of all the world economies.

For myself, I'm busy raising cash atm, as good buys will be available in the the next few years in many different markets.
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We're 37 years into a bond bull market so this final flight to safety run into Treasuries in the next six to nine months will be the last hurrah into a final secular top. In coming years, bonds will reverse much of the last 37 years of gains as inflation goes to ever higher levels in the 2020s. The disinflation cycle that began in the early 1980's is coming to an end. It will likely be followed by a short, sharp deflationary downturn next year to be followed by an inflation-driven recovery cycle. In this short-term deflationary downturn, we'll likely see some involuntary debt liquidation in the form of corporate bankruptcies and bank failures around the globe. The world's central banks will respond with even more QE than we've seen in this cycle and it will jumpstart the first inflation cycle we've seen since the 1970's. The next cycle will be led by a whole different set of stocks. Industrial and commodity stocks will lead the way, not growth stocks. The indexes that have done so well with disinflation and falling interest rates will be weighed down by last (this) cycle's leaders and their performance will greatly lag the industrial and commodity stocks. It is important to look forward and not extrapolate past trends when investing. Every cycle involves a change in leadership. Last cycle's winners become next cycle's losers. But first there is a last hurrah blow-off coming for this cycle's leaders that should carry tech and the indexes into year-end. At least that's my expectation.
 
Uconnfanatic said:
We're 37 years into a bond bull market so this final flight to safety run into Treasuries in the next six to nine months will be the last hurrah into a final secular top. In coming years, bonds will reverse much of the last 37 years of gains as inflation goes to ever higher levels in the 2020s. The disinflation cycle that began in the early 1980's is coming to an end. It will likely be followed by a short, sharp deflationary downturn next year to be followed by an inflation-driven recovery cycle. In this short-term deflationary downturn, we'll likely see some involuntary debt liquidation in the form of corporate bankruptcies and bank failures around the globe. The world's central banks will respond with even more QE than we've seen in this cycle and it will jumpstart the first inflation cycle we've seen since the 1970's. The next cycle will be led by a whole different set of stocks. Industrial and commodity stocks will lead the way, not growth stocks. The indexes that have done so well with disinflation and falling interest rates will be weighed down by last (this) cycle's leaders and their performance will greatly lag the industrial and commodity stocks. It is important to look forward and not extrapolate past trends when investing. Every cycle involves a change in leadership. Last cycle's winners become next cycle's losers. But first there is a last hurrah blow-off coming for this cycle's leaders that should carry tech and the indexes into year-end. At least that's my expectation.
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If you are that sure on the timing you should own the world by the time that all shakes out :)
 
Uconnfanatic said:
We're 37 years into a bond bull market so this final flight to safety run into Treasuries in the next six to nine months will be the last hurrah into a final secular top. In coming years, bonds will reverse much of the last 37 years of gains as inflation goes to ever higher levels in the 2020s. The disinflation cycle that began in the early 1980's is coming to an end. It will likely be followed by a short, sharp deflationary downturn next year to be followed by an inflation-driven recovery cycle. In this short-term deflationary downturn, we'll likely see some involuntary debt liquidation in the form of corporate bankruptcies and bank failures around the globe. The world's central banks will respond with even more QE than we've seen in this cycle and it will jumpstart the first inflation cycle we've seen since the 1970's. The next cycle will be led by a whole different set of stocks. Industrial and commodity stocks will lead the way, not growth stocks. The indexes that have done so well with disinflation and falling interest rates will be weighed down by last (this) cycle's leaders and their performance will greatly lag the industrial and commodity stocks.

It is important to look forward and not extrapolate past trends when investing. Every cycle involves a change in leadership. Last cycle's winners become next cycle's losers. But first there is a last hurrah blow-off coming for this cycle's leaders that should carry tech and the indexes into year-end. At least that's my expectation.
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Not sure on your timing, as it's impossible to do so with certainty, but much of what you say there makes sense. However, some of the effects are difficult to predict because of humans inherent ability to act irrationally. Many times, in economic panics, people tend to run into burning buildings.
 
intlzncster said:
We are back to that level at most things if not more.
  • US GDP up something like 40%; unfortunately, that's against a national debt increase of 120% or so.
  • That doesn't even include the unfunded liabilities (some ridiculous trillion dollar number).
  • Housing debt similar levels
  • Student debt massively higher, unsustainable bubble.
  • etc
This is all on top of a worldwide national debt increase north of 60% iirc. Not to mention the quadrillions of derivatives floating around in the world which will do god knows what in a downturn.

And this has been the 2nd longest expansion in US history. We are overdue.

The big difference is we don't have the same types of tools available to fight it. Deficit is already massive, so pumping cash in the system is going to have some seriously detrimental effects. And interest rates can't go much lower (they are desperately trying to raise them now in anticipation of needing to lower them in the not so far future).
Expand ...
China tariffs now in place is 10% but going to 25% by year end. Car prices could be up $2000-5000 as well as a zillion other things. If things start to go bad it could happen quickly.
 
Today's investing technology enables anyone to profit in a down market. Forever's investing human psychology generally stops most from moving to short positions. Investing is primarily an optimistic sport. That said, the pure quant types basically have not out performed a long term dollar cost averaging into the S&P strategy. Quants remove emotion and emotion is a powerful force in markets.
 
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