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Message: [QUOTE="Golden Husky, post: 3884118, member: 8090"] The biggest difference between Massey and licensed bookmakers is that a statistician such as Massey suffers no penalty for his mistakes while bet takers can actually count their losses. The making of a pointspread is part science and part art. While bookmakers have access to all relevant data and establish power ratings, there are other considerations--most of which can be placed in the category of "perception"--that go into line calculations. Thus, should UConn play a team such as Texas A&M and the statistical data support a line of UConn -6, bookmakers may issue a line of say, -10. Why? Because UConn is a brand name in women's college basketball, one that recreational bettors (squares) recognize, while Texas A&M largely is unknown to any but sophisticated bettors (sharps). So, there's apt to be a disproportionate amount of square action (dead money) on UConn. Bookmakers understand that if the number gets too high, sharps will buy back the underdog. It's a delicate equation. Also, and this will probably come up again when lines become more prevalent later in the tournament, the purpose of the pointspread is to encourage an equal or near-equal amount of betting on each team. It is [B]not [/B]a predictor of the game's outcome. In fact, if the final score of a game hits the pointspread, the game is said to "land," usually a horrible result for the house which can be "sided" (lose to one set of bettors and push with the other) or "middled" (lose to both sets of bettors) in that scenario. [/QUOTE]

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