Stanford crushed Oregon State

[Sluconn Husky]

76-54 without Lili Thompson. Now 10th in both Massey and Sagarin rankins, Stanford might be dangerous come tourney time, something kind of unfathomable two months ago.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Wondering if this Oregon St loss, if that now makes them the 4th #2 seed and in UConn's bracket. Charlie Creme said OSU's loss to Minnesota had them in UConn's bracket. I would rather see UConn face Oregon St over OSU for the right to go to the Final Four.

 

[UcMiami]

Once again (as in same as last year) I wonder about the real strength out west. I just get the sense that Stanford has fallen back into the pack and while the rest of the league has gotten more competitive generally is it just an optical illusion?
ASU - thought they were looking pretty strong until OSU embarrassed them. OOC they lost to KY and SC out of the gate, then beat SYR on the road and FSU at home. Best road win - at Stanford - meh.
OSU - nothing OOC except a road loss to ND and a home loss to TN that looks worse as time goes on but looked pretty bad at the time. Best road win - at Washington - meh
Stanford - OOC lost at TX and beat TN at home. Have beaten no one on the road of note and have some pretty ugly losses scoring 31 and 36 points against ASU and UCLA.
UCLA - losses at home to ND and SC in OOC and nothing else of note. No in conference road wins of note and losses to USC, CAL, and Washington that aren't great.

The other eight teams only notable OOC games - two losses to OK, one each to OKST, UK, TAMU, SYR and California's early win against a struggling Louisville team who started the year 1-4 that went to 3-5 before they got their act together.

The conference as a whole has a record OOC against ranked teams of 2-11 with the two wins against FSU and SYR - you could add in another win and loss for TN but they have proven to be unworthy of their ranking, and you could add in another win for Louisville but that was a team in the process of losing to Western Kentucky, Purdue, and Dayton with only a win against Marist (on its own 0-7 start to the season.) That they have proceeded to trade wins and losses in conference makes them look like the SEC figuring out how to game the RPI and SOS and 'good wins' criteria needed to get better seedings in the tournament.

 

[EricLA]

Stanford seems to be coming into their own. On a team with no superstars, and really, names that probably most in WCBB have not heard of before, it's a testament to Tara's coaching acumen. They didn't just beat Oregon State, they whooped them (22 p0ints in a game between 2 top 15 teams is a whoopin')...

I'm not sure Oregon State is going to end up a 2 seed. If you assume that UCONN, ND, SC and Baylor are the 1 seeds, it seems you have Maryland, Ohio State, Arizona State, Texas, Louisville, aTm and Oregon State fighting it out for the 4 spots as 2 seeds. Oregon State has to be trending down. You could almost throw Stanford in there. If they win out and win the Pac 12, I could see them moving up depending on what the rest of the field does. I think right now, Maryland, Ohio State and Texas have pretty much "cemented" a 2 seed. The last one is really up for grabs. But not much separates 2 seeds from 3 seeds so...

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Once again (as in same as last year) I wonder about the real strength out west. I just get the sense that Stanford has fallen back into the pack and while the rest of the league has gotten more competitive generally is it just an optical illusion?
ASU - thought they were looking pretty strong until OSU embarrassed them.

The other eight teams only notable OOC games - two losses to OK, one each to OKST, UK, TAMU, SYR and California's early win against a struggling Louisville team who started the year 1-4 that went to 3-5 before they got their act together.

The conference as a whole has a record OOC against ranked teams of 2-11 with the two wins against FSU and SYR - you could add in another win and loss for TN but they have proven to be unworthy of their ranking, and you could add in another win for Louisville but that was a team in the process of losing to Western Kentucky, Purdue, and Dayton with only a win against Marist (on its own 0-7 start to the season.) That they have proceeded to trade wins and losses in conference makes them look like the SEC figuring out how to game the RPI and SOS and 'good wins' criteria needed to get better seedings in the tournament.

I hope the last part is tongue in cheek - no one is trying to game the RPI by what goes on in conference.

First, the majority of the PAC is going to have weakish schedules, because much of the rest of the P5 - throw in some of the BE and AAC if you will - is far away. That's a fact - your best games are going to be in destination tourneys and / or the P5 team that wants to do a west coast tour - and few teams want to go to the west just for the sake of playing an awful AZ, Utah or Colorado.

While I made very few games this year, I did see Stanford at AZ - they were certainly not clicking, although they won. A few of the teams are hurt by the injury bug (I assume that ultimately explains Cal) so it is hard to read just how good they might be. I have always felt that the style of play in the PAC - to the extent that there is one, and I believe there is, and similar to the B1G, is not effective against better teams from other conferences. Stanford has never bought into that style, and ASU is unique. Low scores, BTW, involving ASU are the norm.

Stanford did come back to the pack, but I think are now showing their true ability. I actually do expect ASU to win the tourney, but if not them, probably Stanford. Oregon State is just too inconsistent, and dependent on limited players.

 

[UcMiami]

Knightsbridge - a little tongue in cheek, but when you look at teams going 10-2 or better OOC and then completely collapse in conference you have to wonder a bit about scheduling even given the issues of being on the west coast. USC actually went 12-0 and now has 11 losses AZ and Cal with two losses OOC and now with 18 and 15 respectively. That all does help the rest of the league in terms of RPI.

But the main thing is that none of these teams have proven they can beat a top ten team outside of their league though they have consistently had two teams ranked in the top ten and are expected to have four teams hosting NCAA games as part of the top 16 teams.

Eric - Maryland has consistently been out of the top 8 in both the NCAA list and Charlie's guesses at seeding - I think they need to beat OSU to get a 2 seed, because they have such a dreadful OOC this year. Otherwise they need help with stumbles from other teams in consideration - but really two seed vs three seed doesn't really matter as much as which region you get assigned to. They might prefer to be near the top of the three seeds rather than the last 2 seed.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Knightsbridge - a little tongue in cheek, but when you look at teams going 10-2 or better OOC and then completely collapse in conference you have to wonder a bit about scheduling even given the issues of being on the west coast. USC actually went 12-0 and now has 11 losses AZ and Cal with two losses OOC and now with 18 and 15 respectively. That all does help the rest of the league in terms of RPI.

The year we came out here (2011) I said to Coach Butts at a meet and greet that "to be the best you need to play the best" (this was in conversation, not accusing her) and she said something like "give us some time before we try that".

Arizona has played no one notable out-of-conference in the 5 years we have had season tix. Kansas was the only P5 team this year, and they are un-victorious in the Big 12. Lost to SMU, FGCU and San Diego. Beat Cal and Colorado (both in Tucson) for only PAC victories. 2 wins is about normal for AZ.

I'm too lazy to research Cal - but they were ranked when we beat them Week 1 of conference. So I have assumed they must have suffered an injury. This has been an extremely busy winter for us, I have kept up on wins / losses and watched games on TV, but not kept up with much else. And we don't get the PAC network.

And we are kinda hoping for a coaching change, her contract is up this year.

 

[Carnac]

Three things I can almost guarantee will happen during the NCAA tourney:
1. A dark horse will emerge and play way over their head, and mess up everybody's bracket.
2. There will be several upsets during rounds 3 &4 that nobody saw coming.
3. ALL 4 #1 seeds will make the cut to the final four in Indiana in April.

What program do you think can knock any of them off? All of them (except UConn) are going to enter the tourney with only 1 loss. Two of them lost only to UConn. Baylor thrashed Okla. St in their rematch.

I'll ask again......who is going to beat any of the #1 seeds (UConn, Baylor, ND & South Carolina)? That's 3 loses between them for the entire season. All of them will come into the tourny peaking. I'll hang up and listen.

 

[sarals24]

Tara is a hell of a coach.

 

[UcMiami]

Maryland, Ohio State, and Louisville would be my choices for 'party crashers' - OK State is in the process of being thrash by WV so Baylor's crushing them isn't that special. Baylor because they haven't played any other top ten team OOC is a bit of a mystery, and SC because if a team gets hot offensively against them they may be unable to score enough, are the two that are most vulnerable in my mind - but ND and Uconn could lay an egg as well if the other team catches fire.

 

[Plebe]

That they have proceeded to trade wins and losses in conference makes them look like the SEC figuring out how to game the RPI and SOS and 'good wins' criteria needed to get better seedings in the tournament.

But who should be moved ahead of them in the seeding? Similar observations can be made about any of the other teams in contention for a 2 or 3 seed. Look at Maryland's record: only three top-50 wins, all of them at home. Their best road wins are over the bubble teams in the Big Ten. Florida State's best road win is over Miami (a team I believe is overrated). Louisville has obviously improved since its early struggles, but exactly who have they beaten to prove they deserve higher than a 3 seed?

 

[Plebe]

Eric - Maryland has consistently been out of the top 8 in both the NCAA list and Charlie's guesses at seeding - I think they need to beat OSU to get a 2 seed, because they have such a dreadful OOC this year. Otherwise they need help with stumbles from other teams in consideration - but really two seed vs three seed doesn't really matter as much as which region you get assigned to. They might prefer to be near the top of the three seeds rather than the last 2 seed.

Just before the committee's first top-10 "reveal" on February 1, Charlie had Maryland as #7 overall, IIRC. But the committee then put them at #9, behind both Oregon State and Arizona State, reflecting Maryland's weak nonconference schedule and a lack of quality wins, and thereafter Charlie fell in line with the committee (since his task, after all, is to predict what the committee would do). The committee reconfirmed the #9 position on its second reveal of February 15, since Maryland's only top-50 win in the interim was a home victory over Michigan State (while both Oregon State and Arizona State were picking up top-50. However, after Ohio State's road losses to Minnesota and Michigan State, Charlie has Ohio State moving down to #9, and Maryland up to #8. As UcMiami says, though, the practical difference between a 2 seed and a 3 seed is pretty negligible.

 

[chrissaran]

Oregon St. or Ohio St. it won't matter. UConn will beat either by 20.

 

[Plebe]

Oregon St. or Ohio St. it won't matter. UConn will beat either by 20.

No one will argue that. I think Maryland is the greatest concern of the teams that are likely to be seeded across from UConn in the Bridgeport regional. We'll see if the committee moves them up to at least #7 after Ohio State, Oregon State, and Arizona State each suffered losses.

 

[TerpWomenFan]

Maryland did hurt themselves by playing such a weak OOC schedule. But they have played great all year except for the two OSU games. (I guess you can count the UConn game as a good game for them). One team I would be scared of is Louisville. They should have beaten Notre Dame but played poorly down the stretch. Other than that they have played as well as any team in the country not named UConn. And Walz is a good coach.

 

[UcMiami]

What I see with both OSU and Maryland is really good offensive teams and the biggest issue in most upset bids in the ability to score enough points. Of the two, Maryland appears to be the more interested in also playing some defense, so I guess they are the biggest threat.*
Jeff has specialized in getting his teams ready for the challenges in the NCAA and seems to be able to instill belief in his players that they can win so they make the third of my possible surprise FF teams.

* Massey who does an offense and defense rating puts OSU at #1 offense and #199 defense, vs Maryland at #4 and #32 - some of the defensive liability for these two teams is just a result of fast paced offense leading to more chances for the opponent to score.

 

[Gate81]

OSU #1 offense and #199 defense is a HUGE disparity. I wonder how rare it is for a team to be this extreme in the difference.

 

[UcMiami]

OSU #1 offense and #199 defense is a HUGE disparity. I wonder how rare it is for a team to be this extreme in the difference.

I think the Oregon team 2010 vintage with Westhead was probably worse - #1 in scoring and about dead last in scoring defense. Just checked and they ended #2 offense and #508 Defense (never quite figured out how that works as their are only 350 or so D1 teams, but the offense and defense numbers get a little wacky. - perhaps he rates all women BB team not just D1 and as you get farther down the list D2 teams start getting into the rankings?)