Stanford/Baylor [merged thread]

[willtalk]

Baylor was essentially playing without two players that are expected to be major contributors this year in Sims and Prince, which were to be their best 3 point threats. Prince simply isn't ready to play high level ball. I have said that before Sims makes a 30 point difference in a game. She will give you 20 points and takes away at least 10 points away from opponents with her defense. With her in Baylor wins by 20+, IMO.

However, having said that, Baylor does not look like the best team in the nation. There were 5 seniors available and the team just doesn't look nearly as good as last year. I think dropping to 4 would be great motivation.

Let the new UCONN streak begin.

Have thought about it for some time but I am sorry I have to respond to that statement it's so nonsensical on many different levels. Every player has great, average, and sub-average games. No one really knows which one of those type of games a player might have on any given day. Now Sims doesn't even average 20 pts a game. Last season she averaged 14.9 a game. So even before figuring in the replacements points she doesn't meet your + 20 per game standard. If you count assists she averaged just less than three a game.

Now every team is different so lets just take the numbers she had against Stanford last year. 11pts on 4 for 11 shooting, 1-2 on three pointers, 2 rb, 3 assists and 2 steals. But if we subtract the numbers by the players that took her minutes we get even less. Lets see in the Stanford game she played 40 min. Her replacement Johnson played 27 so minus her four that leaves about 10 min that was taken by Madden. So lets just subtract Johnsons stats. 6 from 11 leaves her with 5pts. Steals even out both had two. assists even out. Sims had one more rb. So that just leaves 5 pts and 1rb even before we begin to subtract the points from Maddens 10 extra minutes. Not quite the 20 plus points you threw out is it.

Now most reasonable people will acknowledge that Baylor was hurt by Sims absense. How much though is purely speculatory. I just threw out those numbers to show you how silly the whole thing is and to show you how over the top your 30 pts a game figure was. Those were not reasonable numbers only something you pulled out of your head to justify your perspective. At least I used actual stats. Let me say that it not my belief that Baylor was not hurt by Sims absense. Sims might have had the game of her life and Baylor wins by 20. Or she might have just duplicated her last outing against Stanford. No one can say. The stats I listed were not to support my belief. My actual belief is that the result was a combination of Match-ups and Timing. Timing because Sims was injured. The Match-up because Stanford had the right players on their team to take advantage of it because they can defend Griner well.

 

[easttexastrash]

Have thought about it for some time but I am sorry I have to respond to that statement it's so nonsensical on many different levels. Every player has great, average, and sub-average games. No one really knows which one of those type of games a player might have on any given day. Now Sims doesn't even average 20 pts a game. Last season she averaged 14.9 a game. So even before figuring in the replacements points she doesn't meet your + 20 per game standard. If you count assists she averaged just less than three a game.

Now every team is different so lets just take the numbers she had against Stanford last year. 11pts on 4 for 11 shooting, 1-2 on three pointers, 2 rb, 3 assists and 2 steals. But if we subtract the numbers by the players that took her minutes we get even less. Lets see in the Stanford game she played 40 min. Her replacement Johnson played 27 so minus her four that leaves about 10 min that was taken by Madden. So lets just subtract Johnsons stats. 6 from 11 leaves her with 5pts. Steals even out both had two. assists even out. Sims had one more rb. So that just leaves 5 pts and 1rb even before we begin to subtract the points from Maddens 10 extra minutes. Not quite the 20 plus points you threw out is it.

Now most reasonable people will acknowledge that Baylor was hurt by Sims absense. How much though is purely speculatory. I just threw out those numbers to show you how silly the whole thing is and to show you how over the top your 30 pts a game figure was. Those were not reasonable numbers only something you pulled out of your head to justify your perspective. At least I used actual stats. Let me say that it not my belief that Baylor was not hurt by Sims absense. Sims might have had the game of her life and Baylor wins by 20. Or she might have just duplicated her last outing against Stanford. No one can say. The stats I listed were not to support my belief. My actual belief is that the result was a combination of Match-ups and Timing. Timing because Sims was injured. The Match-up because Stanford had the right players on their team to take advantage of it because they can defend Griner well.

Thanks for the numbers crunching. The thing that you cannot measure is the amount of disruption that Sims causes to the opponent's offense. She puts pressure on the opposing point guard to the point that they have trouble setting up the offense because they are so harassed and constantly under pressure. I actually think you are correct that her absence has less impact on the offense, but after thinking about it, I understated her impact on the opponent's offense. Her presence probably affects they opponent much more than by 10 points. She is also the emotional leader of the team and the one that makes it all run. There are some things that you simply cannot put a number on.

You also quoted Sims' scoring average but if you followed Baylor you would know that her averages increase significantly against the top 5 teams and last year she averaged 20+ a game against top 5 teams.

I bet that if you ask the average Boneyarder that they would say that with Sims, Baylor vs UCONN is a close game. Without Sims in the game, I bet that consensus is that UCONN wins by 20+. She is that important to the success of Baylor. I would love to see one of those nifty polls that presents that question.

 

[OneTrickPony]

Thanks for the numbers crunching. The thing that you cannot measure is the amount of disruption that Sims causes to the opponent's offense. She puts pressure on the opposing point guard to the point that they have trouble setting up the offense because they are so harassed and constantly under pressure. I actually think you are correct that her absence has less impact on the offense, but after thinking about it, I understated her impact on the opponent's offense. Her presence probably affects they opponent much more than by 10 points. She is also the emotional leader of the team and the one that makes it all run. There are some things that you simply cannot put a number on.

You also quoted Sims' scoring average but if you followed Baylor you would know that her averages increase significantly against the top 5 teams and last year she averaged 20+ a game against top 5 teams.

I bet that if you ask the average Boneyarder that they would say that with Sims, Baylor vs UCONN is a close game. Without Sims in the game, I bet that consensus is that UCONN wins by 20+. She is that important to the success of Baylor. I would love to see one of those nifty polls that presents that question.

We were speculating on how to approach Baylor this year, and my particular theory is that with aggressive pressure focused on Sims you can destroy a lot of Baylor's offense it terms of limiting good feeds to the post, limiting her ability to drive and kick or dump, and limit the number of open looks she gets on the perimeter. By platooning people like Kelly Faris, Briana Banks, Bria Hartley and Mo Jeff...I think you can wear her down so that her impact is substantially diminished on the defensive side where she is very effective. If your analysis is correct...and Sims is that integral to Baylor's game...which I tend to agree with...I think UCONN now has the personnel to work Griner in the paint and work Sims hard at the point.

 

[willtalk]

Thanks for the numbers crunching. The thing that you cannot measure is the amount of disruption that Sims causes to the opponent's offense. She puts pressure on the opposing point guard to the point that they have trouble setting up the offense because they are so harassed and constantly under pressure. I actually think you are correct that her absence has less impact on the offense, but after thinking about it, I understated her impact on the opponent's offense. Her presence probably affects they opponent much more than by 10 points. She is also the emotional leader of the team and the one that makes it all run. There are some things that you simply cannot put a number on.

You also quoted Sims' scoring average but if you followed Baylor you would know that her averages increase significantly against the top 5 teams and last year she averaged 20+ a game against top 5 teams.

I bet that if you ask the average Boneyarder that they would say that with Sims, Baylor vs UCONN is a close game. Without Sims in the game, I bet that consensus is that UCONN wins by 20+. She is that important to the success of Baylor. I would love to see one of those nifty polls that presents that question.

I don't disagree that she has an impact on either the offense or the defense. But a guard no matter how good of a on ball defender she is does not have the same impact that a good post defender would. Now Griner is another matter. She has a mega impact. She impacts the entire floor.

My numberer crunching was purposefully sarcastic in order to make a point. We can not really tell if a player will have a good or a sub-par game so I used her averages as a focal point. Yes against the better teams her averages were 18 points a game. probably because she played the entire game such as she did against Stanford in the simi's. Of course in that game her numbers were sub-average for her. Even the best players in the world have games they couldn't hit an uncontested lay up. And average players have lights out games. I used those numbers to show that your evaluation of Sims as making a thirty point difference in a game was way over the top. That was my point.

I personally believe Baylor is a better team than Stanford. Stanford would have trouble beating some teams that Baylor would handle easily. Stanford however matches up well against Baylor. If Sims doesn't have a good game and Stanford doesn't shoot 3's as bad as last year they have a good shot against them. Most teams in WCBB do not have the talent to beat Baylor even if they all have a bad game, but there are a few who could take advantage of a sub-par game by Griner or Sims. A deep well balanced team could mitigate bad games by their main stars. Neither Baylor or Stanford have the offensive balance to compensate if their top scorers don't produce. I like many others would say that all things being equal that Baylor should be the favorite. Provided that they don't lose Griner, Sims or even any more of their other key players. I just don't think they are as unbeatable as many others think they are. And we shall see next year when Griner is gone how much of a difference maker Sims really is.

 

[meyers7]

Now Sims doesn't even average 20 pts a game. Last season she averaged 14.9 a game. So even before figuring in the replacements points she doesn't meet your + 20 per game standard. If you count assists she averaged just less than three a game.

So 14.9 ppg and 3 assists per game comes up to 20-23 points. You may want to "crunch" your numbers again.

 

[willtalk]

So 14.9 ppg and 3 assists per game comes up to 20-23 points. You may want to "crunch" your numbers again.

I stand corrected. Stupid inclusion on my part. But you can't really count assists straight up because then you would also have to subtract the points she scored that were assisted by someone else. So technically I was still probably right.