Sport gambling, where do you stand?

[Scoe]

Speaking of gambling this story is crazy how stupid Pats receiver accused of making illegal sports bets on own college team

 

[Echo Hawk]

It's harmless fun if you:

• know the math and what you're getting into
• play the promos (so you make money over the house in the long run)
• bet on things you know
• can afford it and set appropriate limits

The constant ads are a bit cringe, like advertising the lottery, because they're generally targeting people who don't fit the criteria above.

Yes. But I would add the old aphorism, "A fool and his money are soon separated". As to lotteries, they are a cynical regressive tax on the stupid. Same with casinos. The flood gates on gambling opened with the NH lottery back around 1970. Connecticut was soon after with a $5000 weekly prize. You can literally bet on anything anytime now.

Most people don't understand risk or how to underwrite it. And people don't just risk their money , they gamble with their lives all the time. A male who doesn't get a colonoscopy at age 50. A PSA. Women who forgo Pap smears, breast exams.

Taking risky chances is in our DNA. Understanding it is not. So beware.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Speaking of gambling this story is crazy how stupid Pats receiver accused of making illegal sports bets on own college team

It's incredible. He was pretty successful, but now look what it will cost him.

 

[AdamaNation]

Gov cooper just passed our law in NC. Opens up days before the tournament!!!!!!

 

[XLCenterFan]

Here's the thing about gambling. If you want to consistently make money, it takes YEARS to learn the ins and outs of the sports betting market. I'm a prime example. Started gambling Junior year at UConn with $10 bets and was not good whatsoever. There were even moments where I lost more than I was comfortable with and it led to some difficult times (Gambling when only making $250 a week while working at Red Rock Cafe is not ideal). Funny to think about whether I'd still be gambling if it wasn't for UConn bringing the ship home.

I've been fortunate enough to learn from my mistakes over the 10 years since then. Knowing that if lines like UConn -10 vs DePaul (it's a hyperbolic example but work with me) are posted, you should never be on UConn. The betting public obviously would race to bet -10 vs an abysmal DePaul team (say 80% of bets/tickets are on UConn), which is exactly what Vegas/the sportsbooks want! Another, this time real life, example is #8 Auburn @ Alabama the other night. Alabama was -2.5!!!! Auburn was on a 5 game win streak against the spread! The line told you everything about which side to bet (even though it was a clencher with that final 3 being called off, still a W). Finding yourself betting against the public in most cases will start steering you in the right direction.

Getting the "Action Network Sports Betting" app and paying for a Pro membership ($100/yr I think?) is a must in my opinion. It will show you public betting % and money % on each side of a game. They also have indicators telling you if big money is on a side, "sharps" or respected bettors are on a side, or if the Action team's experts are on a side (you can pick and choose who you want to follow). There's also a ton of articles (which include KenPom rankings, offensive/defensive metrics, shooting regression, etc.) for specific games. Follow me @VinnyD33 on there)

Bottom line is that you really have to work hard to be a profitable gambler (the Pros boast about anything 55%+ win rate ATS). I knew people who had addictive personalities, would lose way more than they had to their names with a bookie, only for them to try to bet their way out of it (DO NOT DO THIS). Gambling is dangerous without doing your research or having zero self control. If you do it for fun, keep it light and bet whatever the hell you desire.

TL;DR... I know, but this is something I'm truly passionate about and I could go on and on. I win enough $ that I consider it my second job (the tax man sees it that way too).

Feel free to start a conversation. Be happy to help and answer any questions.

Last month NCAAB --- ROI: 34.17% Record: 33-15-2 Wins: 69% (v nice)

Great points. I feel like I’m in the same boat as you. It takes a while to learn the ins and outs and to find a good strategy to simply break even. It also takes some guts to keep going and some restraint when you’re thinking of doing something wild. I had steaks where it felt like I would never win again and runs where it felt like I would never lose again. Playing poker and understanding variance has helped my sports betting. I also have learned to value the advice of professionals - Rick Run Good and the PME show for golf, Teddy Covers, Marco D’Angelo, RJ Bell, etc. Always look to fade the public and never pay more than -110. Also can’t be results-oriented. Even a good bet will lose. Example: You find a spread bet that is paying +110. If someone offers to flip a coin with you and will give you better than even money, you have to do it. Even if you lose, it’s a good bet.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Here's the thing about gambling. If you want to consistently make money, it takes YEARS to learn the ins and outs of the sports betting market. I'm a prime example. Started gambling Junior year at UConn with $10 bets and was not good whatsoever. There were even moments where I lost more than I was comfortable with and it led to some difficult times (Gambling when only making $250 a week while working at Red Rock Cafe is not ideal). Funny to think about whether I'd still be gambling if it wasn't for UConn bringing the ship home.

I've been fortunate enough to learn from my mistakes over the 10 years since then. Knowing that if lines like UConn -10 vs DePaul (it's a hyperbolic example but work with me) are posted, you should never be on UConn. The betting public obviously would race to bet -10 vs an abysmal DePaul team (say 80% of bets/tickets are on UConn), which is exactly what Vegas/the sportsbooks want! Another, this time real life, example is #8 Auburn @ Alabama the other night. Alabama was -2.5!!!! Auburn was on a 5 game win streak against the spread! The line told you everything about which side to bet (even though it was a clencher with that final 3 being called off, still a W). Finding yourself betting against the public in most cases will start steering you in the right direction.

Getting the "Action Network Sports Betting" app and paying for a Pro membership ($100/yr I think?) is a must in my opinion. It will show you public betting % and money % on each side of a game. They also have indicators telling you if big money is on a side, "sharps" or respected bettors are on a side, or if the Action team's experts are on a side (you can pick and choose who you want to follow). There's also a ton of articles (which include KenPom rankings, offensive/defensive metrics, shooting regression, etc.) for specific games. Follow me @VinnyD33 on there)

Bottom line is that you really have to work hard to be a profitable gambler (the Pros boast about anything 55%+ win rate ATS). I knew people who had addictive personalities, would lose way more than they had to their names with a bookie, only for them to try to bet their way out of it (DO NOT DO THIS). Gambling is dangerous without doing your research or having zero self control. If you do it for fun, keep it light and bet whatever the hell you desire.

TL;DR... I know, but this is something I'm truly passionate about and I could go on and on. I win enough $ that I consider it my second job (the tax man sees it that way too).

Feel free to start a conversation. Be happy to help and answer any questions.

Last month NCAAB --- ROI: 34.17% Record: 33-15-2 Wins: 69% (v nice)

I have a much simpler suggestion: pay nothing. Sign up for multiple online sportsbooks and play their promotions* and do nothing else. I've profited about $3000/year doing only this and it involves extremely little thought, about 15 minutes a day to do the math and make your bets.

Don't try to outsmart anyone, math wins in the long run. I've probably broken even, at best, on everything else where I either thought I had an edge or emotionally hedged against my own team.

* A caveat on this is you have to know which promotions are actually profitable (+EV) in the long run. A 50% profit boost on a single bet? Absolutely and twice on Sundays. A 25% profit boost on a 3-leg or (God-forbid) 4-leg parlay? Spit on it and don't look back -- the vig is killing any profit and you're actually losing. An odds promo where there's actually another side you can instantly hedge for immediate profit? Definitely. Touchdown scorer props where there's no opposing side that connects the odds to reality? No thanks.

 

[UConnSean]

Here's the thing about gambling. If you want to consistently make money, it takes YEARS to learn the ins and outs of the sports betting market. I'm a prime example. Started gambling Junior year at UConn with $10 bets and was not good whatsoever. There were even moments where I lost more than I was comfortable with and it led to some difficult times (Gambling when only making $250 a week while working at Red Rock Cafe is not ideal). Funny to think about whether I'd still be gambling if it wasn't for UConn bringing the ship home.

I've been fortunate enough to learn from my mistakes over the 10 years since then. Knowing that if lines like UConn -10 vs DePaul (it's a hyperbolic example but work with me) are posted, you should never be on UConn. The betting public obviously would race to bet -10 vs an abysmal DePaul team (say 80% of bets/tickets are on UConn), which is exactly what Vegas/the sportsbooks want! Another, this time real life, example is #8 Auburn @ Alabama the other night. Alabama was -2.5!!!! Auburn was on a 5 game win streak against the spread! The line told you everything about which side to bet (even though it was a clencher with that final 3 being called off, still a W). Finding yourself betting against the public in most cases will start steering you in the right direction.

Getting the "Action Network Sports Betting" app and paying for a Pro membership ($100/yr I think?) is a must in my opinion. It will show you public betting % and money % on each side of a game. They also have indicators telling you if big money is on a side, "sharps" or respected bettors are on a side, or if the Action team's experts are on a side (you can pick and choose who you want to follow). There's also a ton of articles (which include KenPom rankings, offensive/defensive metrics, shooting regression, etc.) for specific games. Follow me @VinnyD33 on there)

Bottom line is that you really have to work hard to be a profitable gambler (the Pros boast about anything 55%+ win rate ATS). I knew people who had addictive personalities, would lose way more than they had to their names with a bookie, only for them to try to bet their way out of it (DO NOT DO THIS). Gambling is dangerous without doing your research or having zero self control. If you do it for fun, keep it light and bet whatever the hell you desire.

TL;DR... I know, but this is something I'm truly passionate about and I could go on and on. I win enough $ that I consider it my second job (the tax man sees it that way too).

Feel free to start a conversation. Be happy to help and answer any questions.

Last month NCAAB --- ROI: 34.17% Record: 33-15-2 Wins: 69% (v nice)

Any "pro" who talks about win rate isn't really a pro - a win rate by itself holds zero value and zero indication of profitability

 

[XLCenterFan]

I have a much simpler suggestion: pay nothing. Sign up for multiple online sportsbooks and play their promotions* and do nothing else. I've profited about $3000/year doing only this and it involves extremely little thought, about 15 minutes a day to do the math and make your bets.

Don't try to outsmart anyone, math wins in the long run. I've probably broken even, at best, on everything else where I either thought I had an edge or emotionally hedged against my own team.

* A caveat on this is you have to know which promotions are actually profitable (+EV) in the long run. A 50% profit boost on a single bet? Absolutely and twice on Sundays. A 25% profit boost on a 3-leg or (God-forbid) 4-leg parlay? Spit on it and don't look back -- the vig is killing any profit and you're actually losing. An odds promo where there's actually another side you can instantly hedge for immediate profit? Definitely. Touchdown scorer props where there's no opposing side that connects the odds to reality? No thanks.

Your approach isn't gambling though. You might as well just open checking accounts at a new bank 5x a year to scoop up the $300 new checking account bonus. What would be your advice to someone that actually wants to sweat something? Someone that isn't just grinding and wants action.

 

[XLCenterFan]

Any "pro" who talks about win rate isn't really a pro - a win rate by itself holds zero value and zero indication of profitability

A win rate can be relevant...especially if you bet the same unit every game. We would also have to know the vig, but there's more than zero value in that stat.

 

[XLCenterFan]

Touchdown scorer props where there's no opposing side that connects the odds to reality? No thanks.

100%. I HATE it when they offer a Yes/No bet, but you can only bet one side of it.

 

[Yardigan]

Schaefer is the one beer to have when you’re having more than one.

I remember the commercials they used to show during sox games where there'd be a guy etching a "1" into a frosted mug during the commercial

 

[Yardigan]

Speaking of gambling this story is crazy how stupid Pats receiver accused of making illegal sports bets on own college team

22 bets a day, 7 days a week for the timeframe given

 

[Yardigan]

Yes. But I would add the old aphorism, "A fool and his money are soon separated". As to lotteries, they are a cynical regressive tax on the stupid. Same with casinos. The flood gates on gambling opened with the NH lottery back around 1970. Connecticut was soon after with a $5000 weekly prize. You can literally bet on anything anytime now.

Most people don't understand risk or how to underwrite it. And people don't just risk their money , they gamble with their lives all the time. A male who doesn't get a colonoscopy at age 50. A PSA. Women who forgo Pap smears, breast exams.

Taking risky chances is in our DNA. Understanding it is not. So beware.

Lottery is just a tax on people that are bad at math

 

[2014DualCs]

Any "pro" who talks about win rate isn't really a pro - a win rate by itself holds zero value and zero indication of profitability

Never once claimed I was a pro. And win rate certainly matters when all your bets are ATS.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Your approach isn't gambling though. You might as well just open checking accounts at a new bank 5x a year to scoop up the $300 new checking account bonus. What would be your advice to someone that actually wants to sweat something? Someone that isn't just grinding and wants action.

You're sweating individual bets, but you're winning in the long run because your sample size is enormous enough to crush the variance.

 

[ucp990411]

My money is way too important to me to gamble. Anyone think these sites ever lose money? I once bet 25 on UCONN not to cover and I had to root for them to miss shots. Tore me apart

 

[Waquoit]

I compare it to going skiing. You make a few runs and come home significantly poorer with nothing to show for it. I've come home from the track with extra cash many times.

 

[Tenspro2002]

My money is way too important to me to gamble. Anyone think these sites ever lose money? I once bet 25 on UCONN not to cover and I had to root for them to miss shots. Tore me apart

The sites make money hand over fist, but individuals can win if they're disciplined about it.

They offer promos that are +EV for the user because it entices the undisciplined user to make a ____load more non-promo -EV bets. If you don't do the latter, you win!

 

[prankster]

Tom ought to run a Boneyard exclusive sports book. Fund the Yard, put some change into his pocket, and let us enjoy the joy and bitterness among the betting yarders.

The "I can't wait to see Georgetown dismantle Providence" folks vs the ""I really want to watch PC undress Cooley" folks....

"That's gold, Jerry! Pure gold!"

 

[1999GoodSon]

I feel exactly the same. All of the sudden gambling is ok because the sate can make some money. The hypocrisy is ridiculous. In Florida you can only bet online through an app that is controlled by the Hard Rock Seminole Indian owned casino. It seems to me that a lot of people were labeled criminals for providing a service to consulting adults. Unfortunately some people I know paid that price.

One of the coolest guys I ever met in my life was the bookie at a very well known golf club in Bristol. Everyone bet on everything, it was a riot. I don't remember putts for less than 100. One guy - went way too far and was (putting it very nicely) betting other people's money. Scandal ensued, everything hit the fan, and our very good friend got 12 years. YEARS. Lost everything. A certain governor couldn't even bail him out and he was a regular.
Today - faceless megacorps take unskilled bettors money, and you can't watch anything on ESPN without the pitch in your face. Ironically, ESPN isn't a couple of miles from that club, and maybe not you, but people are getting hurt. For me, the whole thing is hypocritical garbage and it dilutes the sport. There will be fallout eventually.
Just let me watch the damn game.

 

[Palatine]

I did play one year of fantasy football. My QB was Troy Aikman. It ruined Sunday's for me. I couldn't just enjoy the Giants game.

 

[awfuldan]

I have a much simpler suggestion: pay nothing. Sign up for multiple online sportsbooks and play their promotions* and do nothing else. I've profited about $3000/year doing only this and it involves extremely little thought, about 15 minutes a day to do the math and make your bets.

Don't try to outsmart anyone, math wins in the long run. I've probably broken even, at best, on everything else where I either thought I had an edge or emotionally hedged against my own team.

* A caveat on this is you have to know which promotions are actually profitable (+EV) in the long run. A 50% profit boost on a single bet? Absolutely and twice on Sundays. A 25% profit boost on a 3-leg or (God-forbid) 4-leg parlay? Spit on it and don't look back -- the vig is killing any profit and you're actually losing. An odds promo where there's actually another side you can instantly hedge for immediate profit? Definitely. Touchdown scorer props where there's no opposing side that connects the odds to reality? No thanks.

This is more or less my strategy with regards to sports betting and the online casinos in CT. I'm ahead $6500 on FanDuel (mostly in the last year) solely through hustling promotions and never betting on anything that isn't +EV. It's not glamorous but it works and I have fun doing it.

 

[XLCenterFan]

This is more or less my strategy with regards to sports betting and the online casinos in CT. I'm ahead $6500 on FanDuel (mostly in the last year) solely through hustling promotions and never betting on anything that isn't +EV. It's not glamorous but it works and I have fun doing it.

View attachment 95712

Define +EV

 

[ucp990411]

Honest question. How many of you gamblers are married with children?

 

[awfuldan]

Define +EV

EV is short for expected value, which is the amount a gambler can expect to make in the long term over many trials. @Tenspro2002 used the example of a 50% profit boost on a single -110 bet. This bet is going to +EV: it doesn't matter if you happen to lose on 1 specific game, the bet will make money in the long term because the odds are in your favor.

You mentioned you are a poker player and EV comes up in poker all the time. The simplest example is if I go all-in pre-flop and you have pocket aces, you will always have a +EV call. Even if I have pocket kings and flop a set, your call is still a longterm winning play.

A regular -110 sports bet can potentially still be +EV if you have a big enough edge over the sportsbook that you can overcome the vig when you pick winners. It's pretty hard to get to that point though, and I can recognize that I'm not there. Even when I see a line that looks attractive to me, I won't bet it because I know I don't have the edge.