Sox second half prediction

[Danzz]

The Sox will make a run at some point because the starting pitching is much better than they showed in the first half.
Unfortunately, the first half strengths will be the second half weaknesses.
Expect Gonzalez to come on (he is already showing signs), Ortiz to continue to produce but then what? They will have trouble scoring runs with the makeshift lineup. Crawford is being mentioned as a Tommy John surgery candidate so I don't expect much from him and we'll just have to see about Elsbury .Pedroia most likely will come back too soon because the guy is a gamer and won't be honest about his health. They won't have enough offense. The young guys (Nava, Middlebrooks, etc) will show why they didn't make the big club in the spring.
The bullpen which was great in the first half will begin to falter somewhat in the second half. They have been forced to pitch a lot of innings because starters haven't been going deep enough into games. Aceves will begin to slide more from misuse and Morales won't be as effective bouncing back and forth from the bullpen to the starting rotation. Note to Bobby: Morales is a power pitcher not a knuckleballer.
Still, I see the Sox doing enough to finish third behind the Yankees and Rays and of course missing the playoffs again. Theo got into some trouble calling this a "bridge year" but that is exactly what it is.

 

[60'sfan]

The Sox will make a run at some point because the starting pitching is much better than they showed in the first half.
Unfortunately, the first half strengths will be the second half weaknesses.
Expect Gonzalez to come on (he is already showing signs), Ortiz to continue to produce but then what? They will have trouble scoring runs with the makeshift lineup. Crawford is being mentioned as a Tommy John surgery candidate so I don't expect much from him and we'll just have to see about Elsbury .Pedroia most likely will come back too soon because the guy is a gamer and won't be honest about his health. They won't have enough offense. The young guys (Nava, Middlebrooks, etc) will show why they didn't make the big club in the spring.
The bullpen which was great in the first half will begin to falter somewhat in the second half. They have been forced to pitch a lot of innings because starters haven't been going deep enough into games. Aceves will begin to slide more from misuse and Morales won't be as effective bouncing back and forth from the bullpen to the starting rotation. Note to Bobby: Morales is a power pitcher not a knuckleballer.
Still, I see the Sox doing enough to finish third behind the Yankees and Rays and of course missing the playoffs again. Theo got into some trouble calling this a "bridge year" but that is exactly what it is.

I agree with most of what you have said. I think it's a bridge year too. Nava has been a bright spot but he is probably not going to be a starter. He doesn't have enough power. He would be a nice reserve to keep because he does a lot of things well. I would play Middlebrooks and see what he can do. This will be a learning experience for him but he does look like the third baseman of the future. I think the bullpen will be OK as the Sox add back Bailey and Hill and I see Bailey replacing Aceves as the closer by late August. However, I don't share your optimism on the starters. I don't know what happened to Lester and Beckett but they are not the pitchers they used to be. I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox package Beckett and an outfielder to try to get a top of the rotation starter if it could be done. I think they should release Dice K. He is not going to do much for them and I don't think he has any trade value. He is just taking up a roster spot. I don't know if Crawford will ever be the player we thought we were getting but I would not play him just because he is making a lot of money. Down the road, we could have an outfield of Linares, Bradley and Kalish/Ross. I still think the Sox are weak at short and behind the plate. This might be a good time to work on that as opposed to pursuing the elusive playoff spot. Even if we got it, we don't have a top of the rotation starter to get us to the second round.

 

[Danzz]

Beckett's fastball is around 92 and he is no longer a top of the rotation power pitcher. He is still a better starter then what may be available. I can't figure out Lester. He has the stuff to be dominating but he gets wild in the zone too often. We may see a more dominant Lester in the second half. I try to conceal my frustration with Dice K because he does win games but I'll cut the lawn before I'll watch a Sox game he starts.His high early pitch count taxes the bullpen. Dice K usually looks pretty good after the first inning but unfortunately, the first inning counts. I like Dubront but he also taxes the bullpen; usually 5 or 6 innings. Bucholz is talented but still a question mark. I just think as a group they will be much better the second half.
I don't agree with you about Salty. He is not Johnny Bench but he has a strong sometimes erratic arm and his defense has improved. He also adds some power to a lineup that needs it.
Who do they start if they were somehow able to get into a 1 game playoff? I don't think Valentine could answer that now. It would probably be who has the best second half.
Avilles has been better than expected but I agree, he is not the long term answer at SS. He is better suited to Punto's current utility role.

 

[NHUConnfan]

Crawford is being mentioned as a Tommy John surgery candidate so I don't expect much from him and we'll just have to see about Elsbury

This completely contradicts what Nick Cafardo said yesterday when he stated that Crawford would return about 1-2 weeks after Ellsbury (who should be coming back very soon).

You also forgot to mention Bailey coming back soon too. I believe he will get slotted as the closer at the first slip by Aceves. It'll keep him on his toes to perform very well.

 

[Danzz]

It was Crawford who said he may need Tommy John surgery eventually but frankly I don't remember who reported it....I want to say Cafardo but I'm not sure. Crawford coming back and eventually needing TJ surgery could be different issues. It could mean Crawford can play but hasn't healed completely.
Bailey also has to impress to get considered for the closing role and this will be like spring training for him. The Sox bullpen really needs this Allstar break.

 

[NHUConnfan]

It was Crawford who said he may need Tommy John surgery eventually but frankly I don't remember who reported it....I want to say Cafardo but I'm not sure. Crawford coming back and eventually needing TJ surgery could be different issues. It could mean Crawford can play but hasn't healed completely.
Bailey also has to impress to get considered for the closing role and this will be like spring training for him. The Sox bullpen really needs this Allstar break.

I still don't believe you. If he really needed TJ surgery, he'd get it now. There's no reason for him to come back otherwise. This is just about as insane as the rumor I heard that the Cubs were looking at Ryan Sweeney (the Cubs don't need an OF at all).

Bailey doesn't need to impress. He was bought as our closer. Aceves was a serviceable but not without faults as a closer. He is better used for long relief more sparingly.

 

[Danzz]

Well believe this from NESN:

I still don't believe you. If he really needed TJ surgery, he'd get it now. There's no reason for him to come back otherwise. This is just about as insane as the rumor I heard that the Cubs were looking at Ryan Sweeney (the Cubs don't need an OF at all).

Bailey doesn't need to impress. He was bought as our closer. Aceves was a serviceable but not without faults as a closer. He is better used for long relief more sparingly.

Aceves is the closer and they won't change that right away no matter what their original plans were.
As far as Crawford's possible surgery is concerned it is similar to Tommy John surgery. Funny thing is I had this surgery about 8 months ago and the recovery time is about 90 days for full use without restrictions for my ulnar problem but they moved the ligamentand didn't repair it.The surgery improved but didn't solve my entire problem but that is more because of my advanced age than anything.Younger people get much better results. Ulnar surgery is a long way from TJ. This from NESN but similar story from Boston.com
"Crawford's elbow continues to cause him pain despite a plasma injection meant to ease the discomfort. He said he will likely need surgery to fix the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow in the offseason. The surgery -- similar to the Tommy John process that pitchers go through -- usually sidelines position players for a shorter time, about six to eight months. Many position players can also continue to play with the injury. Red Sox brass has denied that surgery is a definite need, and no one is fearful of Crawford returning to the field with an elbow that's not completely strong. He can still hit, after all, which is why he's been advancing in lockstep to the majors despite the elbow pain."

 

[NHUConnfan]

Then why is he planning on returning this year? I'm baffled then.

 

[Danzz]

Then why is he planning on returning this year? I'm baffled then.

If he has the surgery at all it will be after the season. He can play with it now.The real question why a last place team in the division intends on bringing him back at all this year instead of doing the surgery now and having him ready for next season. Maybe there are opposing medical opinions but who knows.

 

[60'sfan]

If he has the surgery at all it will be after the season. He can play with it now.The real question why a last place team in the division intends on bringing him back at all this year instead of doing the surgery now and having him ready for next season. Maybe there are opposing medical opinions but who knows.

I think Crawford wants to play in the worse way. He is probably embarrassed about the money he is being paid but not earning. If he has to make a strong throw from the outfield, it could end his season. I think his elbow is a time bomb. The Sox management is just as embarrassed. They would like to see him play this year and have a decent second half and address the elbow situation after October. I'm not too optimistic about what we will get from him. They showed him in the dugout during the Yankees series and he looks like he has put on about 25 pounds.

 

[Danzz]

I think Crawford wants to play in the worse way. He is probably embarrassed about the money he is being paid but not earning. If he has to make a strong throw from the outfield, it could end his season. I think his elbow is a time bomb. The Sox management is just as embarrassed. They would like to see him play this year and have a decent second half and address the elbow situation after October. I'm not too optimistic about what we will get from him. They showed him in the dugout during the Yankees series and he looks like he has put on about 25 pounds.

You are probably right but it doesn't make a lot of sense. BTW, the ulnar nerve(funny bone nerve) is under the ligament so I'm betting he has a combination of pain and numbness. The outside of my left hand is still a little numb and 2 fingers are a numb and curl a bit requiring oversize golf grips. He may have trouble griping the ball.

 

[60'sfan]

You are probably right but it doesn't make a lot of sense. BTW, the ulnar nerve(funny bone nerve) is under the ligament so I'm betting he has a combination of pain and numbness. The outside of my left hand is still a little numb and 2 fingers are a numb and curl a bit requiring oversize golf grips. He may have trouble griping the ball.

I think the Sox and Crawford will know a lot more in August. If they are out of the race and/or Crawford is still struggling they can shut him then and maybe have him ready for 2013.