Couple of quick thoughts (without having seen them play, so take it with a grain of salt):
1. Per kenpom, they're 49th in the country (68th in offense, 55th in defense). By comparison, Memphis is 66th in offense and 53rd and defense, so the two are basically identical from a statistical perspective, and we enjoyed a lot of success against Memphis this season (that said, two of the games went down to the wire, so it wasn't as if they were a pushover). Most of our losses this season have come against teams with elite defenses (Ville x3, SMU x2, Cincy), so the fact that St. Joe's appears to have a defense we can score on is comforting. The only perplexing losses were Stanford (and that may have just been because we had no clue how to solve a zone) and obviously Houston.
2. If St. Joe's does in fact play at a slow pace (209th in adjusted tempo per kenpom, but that can be misleading - we're 246th, for instance), it becomes all the more imperative to jump out to a quick lead. For all the pundit talk about how "it's easier to slow a team down than speed them up", do you know who generally controls tempo? The team that's ahead. If we lead early and are able to sustain that lead into the second half, St. Joe's is going to be forced to deviate from their deliberate style and take high degree of difficulty shots early in the shot clock. That plays right into our hands. If, on the other hand, UConn trails by eight or more in the second half, our margin for error is razor thin.
3. TV timeouts in the NCAA Tournament are nearly twice as long, so that could be to the benefit of St. Joe's and their thin bench. That doesn't protect them from foul trouble, though, which is why, again UConn needs to be in attack mode early. My feeling is if UConn jumps out to an early lead, St. Joe's is a team that may struggle to score points against our defense. They performed very well against a strong VCU defense both times this season, but VCU differs a bit in that their defense is largely predicated on turning people over. Against Villanova, St. Joe's shot just 37% from the field.
My general thought is that this is a pretty good team playing good basketball at the right time. I think UConn should win, but St. Joe's just won the A-10 Tournament - that's no small accomplishment, and they had to beat a team of similar caliber to us (VCU) to do it. I certainly will not be taking them lightly in the least bit.