Some HoopGurlz 2021 movement | The Boneyard

Some HoopGurlz 2021 movement

HGN said:
Saylor up to #10 in Blue Star.
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Looking back after two or three years, which rating service is most accurate in identifying the stars? Huge discrepancy. Should they be averaged together to get a more accurate picture of who will excel?
 
Fairfield Fan said:
Looking back after two or three years, which rating service is most accurate in identifying the stars? Huge discrepancy. Should they be averaged together to get a more accurate picture of who will excel?
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The ratings are like BBQ sauces-regional, highly dependent on personal taste, based on unknown but traditional recipes. Asking which is the most accurate is like asking which is the best BBQ sauce. Blue Star has tracked best with UCONN successful players over the years and has been accused of having an east coast (regional) bias and is aligned with the Philly Belles AAU organization. All Star Girls Report tend to find the hidden gems and predicted stardom for Gabby Williams when hardly anyone else did at a time when Gabby was injured. Prospects Nation grew out of ESPN Hoopgurlz and those two tend to be in sync because these common rating principles. 1) They do not rate players unless they have seen them play live 2) The rating are based on a projection of the position the player is expected to play at the college level 3) Injured player tend to drop but not significantly. 4) HS level of competition is highly highly discounted instead they tend to rely heavily on AAU showcase tournaments and USA basketball trials.
Although Prospects Nation grew out of ESPN Hoopgurlz and have nearly the same rating philosophies you will occasionally find huge discrepancies in the ratings. The explanations for the discrepancies can usually be traced by to one of those items listed as 1-4 previously. A simple example might be one rating service has not seen the player live while the other has and was impressed. Another example is that one service might be projecting the player to be a post in college and the other might be projecting them to be stretch 4 type forward. Saylor is a good example of this because even Geno doesn't know yet what position Saylor is going to play when she gets to UCONN.
The rating should definitely be averaged and out of that average you get much more useful information. There are 3 posters that have done composite ratings. @meyers7 , @vowelguy and @WBBfolllwer.
The 2020 Composite ranking is some where in this thread.
the-boneyard.com

October UConn Recruiting Thread

While we are on the subject of ratings/rankings might as well talk about this since it comes up every year. Each year there is a vast disparity in rankings or ratings between the services for a few players. Examples from the past: 2019 Kennedy Brown #20 in ESPN: #100 by Prospectsnation 2018...
the-boneyard.com the-boneyard.com
One other thing regarding Hoopgurlz specifically, be leery of cross promotion (aka click bait) with ESPN. In addition to the ratings in Hoopgurlz ESPN also has a rankings of girls HS teams. When you read through rankings ESPN makes a point to hyper link the players and their rankings. In this sense Paige was a dream for ESPN because she was the #1 player on the number #1 HS team in the country. In addition to HS rankings ESPN also host a HS tournament at end of the season. The tournament features 4 of the best HS girls and boys team in the country and used to be called the ESPN Rise now called Dick's National Championship. Here there is heavy cross promotion too from ESPN and the teams that get invited are usually those with highly ranked ESPN player. Paige team was extended an invite this season but was not allowed to participate per Minnesota state rules.
 
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While it may not be as pronounced as it once was, there has frequently appeared to be a distinct UConn bounce for HS players that Geno has signed through the years, particularly when final ratings come out at the end of a player’s senior season. But as we’ve seen, even the Geno Auriemma seal of approval is not a guarantee of success at the college level.

Of course with every player that bounces upward there is at least one player that falls. We’ve seen that with two of ND’s recruits on Hoopgurlz. SB was the #1 recruit for the longest time in the class of 2019 before falling to #6. In the class of 2020, Natajia Marshall plummeted all the way to 34. Some of Marshall’s decline is injury related, but having seen her play twice in her jr season at the Federation Cup with CTK, other than her size, I couldn’t figure out why she was rated so highly in the first place.
 
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Fairfield Fan said:
Looking back after two or three years, which rating service is most accurate in identifying the stars? Huge discrepancy. Should they be averaged together to get a more accurate picture of who will excel?
Expand ...
Why do you say this and do you have any anecdotal evidence to support this statement or is it just a guess?
 
CocoHusky said:
The ratings are like BBQ sauces-regional, highly dependent on personal taste, based on unknown but traditional recipes. Asking which is the most accurate is like asking which is the best BBQ sauce. Blue Star has tracked best with UCONN successful players over the years and has been accused of having an east coast (regional) bias and is aligned with the Philly Belles AAU organization. All Star Girls Report tend to find the hidden gems and predicted stardom for Gabby Williams when hardly anyone else did at a time when Gabby was injured. Prospects Nation grew out of ESPN Hoopgurlz and those two tend to be in sync because these common rating principles. 1) They do not rate players unless they have seen them play live 2) The rating are based on a projection of the position the player is expected to play at the college level 3) Injured player tend to drop but not significantly. 4) HS level of competition is highly highly discounted instead they tend to rely heavily on AAU showcase tournaments and USA basketball trials.
Although Prospects Nation grew out of ESPN Hoopgurlz and have nearly the same rating philosophies you will occasionally find huge discrepancies in the ratings. The explanations for the discrepancies can usually be traced by to one of those items listed as 1-4 previously....
The rating should definitely be averaged and out of that average you get much more useful information. There are 3 posters that have done composite ratings. @meyers7 , @vowelguy and @WBBfolllwer.
The 2020 Composite ranking is some where in this thread.
the-boneyard.com

October UConn Recruiting Thread

While we are on the subject of ratings/rankings might as well talk about this since it comes up every year. Each year there is a vast disparity in rankings or ratings between the services for a few players. Examples from the past: 2019 Kennedy Brown #20 in ESPN: #100 by Prospectsnation 2018...
the-boneyard.com the-boneyard.com
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...so my analysis a couple of weeks ago is already forgotten...:oops:

the-boneyard.com

Top HS Rankings vs. WBCA All-American Teams

With yesterdays announcement of the WBCA teams and the anticipated signings of the next wave of HS prospects (including yesterdays Caroline Ducharme announcement!), I did a comparison of the HoopGurlz Top 10 Player ranking since 2007 (Maya Moore) to 2017 (Meg Walker). I used this set of data as...
the-boneyard.com the-boneyard.com
 
DefenseBB said:
Why do you say this and do you have any anecdotal evidence to support this statement or is it just a guess?
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Diamond Johnson ( Rutgers) 2020: ESPN #5 and ProspectsNation #44
Kennedy Brown ( Oregon State) 2019: McDonalds' Game AA player, ranked 100 by ProspectsNation and 19th in ESPN.
Raven Farley. ( LSU) in 2017: McDonalds' Game AA player, Ranked 14 by ESPN and 100 + by ESPN.
Sidney Cooks Michigan State now at Mississippi state) in 2017: McDonalds' Game AA player, Ranked 5th by ESPN and 69 by ProspectsNation.
Happens every year!
 
DefenseBB said:
...so my analysis a couple of weeks ago is already forgotten...:oops:

the-boneyard.com

Top HS Rankings vs. WBCA All-American Teams

With yesterdays announcement of the WBCA teams and the anticipated signings of the next wave of HS prospects (including yesterdays Caroline Ducharme announcement!), I did a comparison of the HoopGurlz Top 10 Player ranking since 2007 (Maya Moore) to 2017 (Meg Walker). I used this set of data as...
the-boneyard.com the-boneyard.com
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Never. BTW I glad I got a chance to reread this because I did not catch this the first time around.
In your original post you stated:
"Transfers have made the WBCA-Elena Delle Donne and Courtney Williams (Texas A&M to South Florida), so transfers beware!"
The Courtney Williams that played at A&M was not the same Courtney Williams that played at South Florida.
They were both terrific players just not the same player. Considering that EDD was only in Storrs for a few days in the summer I'm not sure that qualifies as a transfer. Transfers should definitely beware!
 
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CocoHusky said:
Diamond Johnson ( Rutgers) 2020: ESPN #5 and ProspectsNation #44
Kennedy Brown ( Oregon State) 2019: McDonalds' Game AA player, ranked 100 by ProspectsNation and 19th in ESPN.
Raven Farley. ( LSU) in 2017: McDonalds' Game AA player, Ranked 14 by ESPN and 100 + by ESPN.
Sidney Cooks Michigan State now at Mississippi state) in 2017: McDonalds' Game AA player, Ranked 5th by ESPN and 69 by ProspectsNation.
Happens every year!
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Also Aubrey Griffin -- #90 ProspectsNation; #21 HoopGurlz
 
oldude said:
While it may not be as pronounced as it once was, there has frequently appeared to be a distinct UConn bounce for HS players that Geno has signed through the years, particularly when final ratings come out at the end of a player’s senior season. But as we’ve seen, even the Geno Auriemma seal of approval is not a guarantee of success at the college level.

Of course with every player that bounces upward there is at least one player that falls. We’ve seen that with two of ND’s recruits on Hoopgurlz. SB was the #1 recruit for the longest time in the class of 2019 before falling to #6. In the class of 2020, Natajia Marshall plummeted all the way to 34. Some of Marshall’s decline is injury related, but having seen her play twice in her jr season at the Federation Cup with CTK, other than her size, I couldn’t figure out why she was rated so highly in the first place.
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Question - is it a UCONN bounce, or is that just coincidence? UCONN has gotten several really good players over the past several years who were injured at various times during their early high school careers. Other players like Griffin, were way under the radar and it wasn't until she almost made the U-17 or U-18 USA teams that her ratings bumped up.

I know it's a chicken/egg thing. UCONN generally looks for talented players. Some are under the radar. Once we get involved, they are scrutinized more closely. But is the bump because UCONN offered, or because they were always that good, but suddenly others are noticing it too?!!
 
EricLA said:
Question - is it a UCONN bounce, or is that just coincidence? UCONN has gotten several really good players over the past several years who were injured at various times during their early high school careers. Other players like Griffin, were way under the radar and it wasn't until she almost made the U-17 or U-18 USA teams that her ratings bumped up.

I know it's a chicken/egg thing. UCONN generally looks for talented players. Some are under the radar. Once we get involved, they are scrutinized more closely. But is the bump because UCONN offered, or because they were always that good, but suddenly others are noticing it too?!!
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If any of the top 15 teams offer an under the radar kid, they always get a ton more attention. I bet you could offer a kid that wouldn't start juco and some teams would offer sight unseen just because of an offer from the big time universities.
 
EricLA said:
Question - is it a UCONN bounce, or is that just coincidence? UCONN has gotten several really good players over the past several years who were injured at various times during their early high school careers. Other players like Griffin, were way under the radar and it wasn't until she almost made the U-17 or U-18 USA teams that her ratings bumped up.

I know it's a chicken/egg thing. UCONN generally looks for talented players. Some are under the radar. Once we get involved, they are scrutinized more closely. But is the bump because UCONN offered, or because they were always that good, but suddenly others are noticing it too?!!
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Good question. I don’t really know. But for the record, I’ve always viewed it as an egg/chicken thing......;)
 
EricLA said:
Question - is it a UCONN bounce, or is that just coincidence?
Expand ...

One of the best things about ESPN/Hoopgurlz is that Dan Olson lists some of the events at which he has seen the individual players.

So it is possible that UConn's increased interest in a player or a verbal commitment to UConn coincides with a player's rise in the rankings because of the additional opportunities for viewing said player, through high school tournaments and state championships, AAU and traveling events, Team USA tryouts, etc.
 
Heck ESPN's HoopGurls doesn't even have Paige as an McDonalds AA. They need to get their act together if they want to put out information on Women's basketball.

  • GradePlayer InfoStatus
  • 98
    Paige Bueckers, PG

    • POS Rank PG #1
    • HT 5-11
    • HS Hopkins H.S. (MN)
    Signed
 
DefenseBB said:
Why do you say this and do you have any anecdotal evidence to support this statement or is it just a guess?
Expand ...

Take for example the very different ratings of UConn recruits on ESPN and Blue Star. Others have listed other examples here.
 
Fairfield Fan said:
Take for example the very different ratings of UConn recruits on ESPN and Blue Star. Others have listed other examples here.
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Well, you mention "Stars" and when I look back at the HG top 10 Rankings, other than Gabby Williams who was #14, HG seems to have gotten it correct. Kia Nurse was #33 and has proven to be a great pro and while we loved her on our team, she was the 4th fiddle behind Stewie #1, Mo #2, Tuck #6, KML #1, KLS #1, Pheesa #6.

Just where is the outrage that you suggest? Who exactly did they "miss on"?
 
garddog said:
If any of the top 15 teams offer an under the radar kid, they always get a ton more attention. I bet you could offer a kid that wouldn't start juco and some teams would offer sight unseen just because of an offer from the big time universities.
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Funny how you put UConn in the same grouping as the next 14 ;)
 
Relying on free public rankings is like buying stocks based on something you see or hear on a cable business show rather than hiring an advisor in a fiduciary relationship. You get what you pay for.
 
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