So....Memphis

[HuskyHawk]

It's strangely quiet. Maybe the "doomsday" crowd doesn't want to admit to any chance of victory and the "nothing is wrong" crowd doesn't want to say anything in case of an embarrassing loss.

Kenpom still has UConn at 127, which is starting to be a bit ridiculous. Memphis is 162.
In the ESPN RPI, UConn jumps to 78. That seems high to me. Memphis is 1o1, which is where we were before the Tulane game.

My brief thoughts: Memphis isn't very good. If we play the same level of basketball we did against UCF and Tulane, this should be a W. That's always a question mark with this team though. Our play in the last stay-over road game @Auburn couldn't have been worse.

What are you guys thinking?

 

[InKembaITrust]

Our away and neutral court record is very questionable. This team needs to handle the adversity of travel better, get over that hump.

Think the chemistry and distinguishing roles is growing fast, as is their confidence over the past couple so I think we win by 10.

 

[mauconnfan]

I'm in the same boat as the Tulane game. Winnable for sure, if you want to have a decent year and continue to improve this is a team you need to perform against and steal a W in an away game. Memphis has some pieces much like us but I think this is a team our kids match up against well and if they want to begin to separate themselves from the bottom and get cozy in the middle of the pack at least, here's one you need.

Cut down on the TO's, make some shots, keep the young bigs out f foul trouble so we can go more 2 guard stuff and play some good defense, back to Storrs with 2 roadies. 11-7,4-2 not awful.

 

[Robertelamin]

I'll spare everyone the details. UConn loses.

 

[Purple Stein]

Sim says 4 point win for the good guys (with an average of a two point win):

 

[Purple Stein]

Here's the sim box -- a nice 3-16 performance from 3!

 

[elmcityboy]

Here's the sim box -- a nice 3-16 performance from 3!

View attachment 27774

this is fun, but if antwoine scores more than cv i'll eat my hat. crazy christian is on a tear!

 

[KodiacKemba]

Here's the sim box -- a nice 3-16 performance from 3!

View attachment 27774

Again I’m seeing free throws disparities

 

[Matrim55]

It's strangely quiet. Maybe the "doomsday" crowd doesn't want to admit to any chance of victory and the "nothing is wrong" crowd doesn't want to say anything in case of an embarrassing loss.

I'm part of the "we're still actually terrible" crowd, but will freely admit 1) we've played much better over the last 80 minutes, 2) if we play like that vs. Memphis, we should win, and 3) I'm starting to be bullish on this team's NIT prospects.

Wish we'd beaten Tulsa.

 

[upstater]

It's strangely quiet. Maybe the "doomsday" crowd doesn't want to admit to any chance of victory and the "nothing is wrong" crowd doesn't want to say anything in case of an embarrassing loss.

Kenpom still has UConn at 127, which is starting to be a bit ridiculous. Memphis is 162.
In the ESPN RPI, UConn jumps to 78. That seems high to me. Memphis is 1o1, which is where we were before the Tulane game.

My brief thoughts: Memphis isn't very good. If we play the same level of basketball we did against UCF and Tulane, this should be a W. That's always a question mark with this team though. Our play in the last stay-over road game @Auburn couldn't have been worse.

What are you guys thinking?

I am trying not to think too much about this, but I was always under the assumption that playing a touch schedule was a good thing. So playing Oregon, Syracuse, Michigan St, Arkansas, Auburn, Villanova, and Arizona was going to buffer UConn's resume.

But now as we start playing mediocre teams and beating them, now we rise in the RPI? Is the conventiona wisdom wrong? Are you better off beating mediocre competition than scheduling (and losing, other than Oregon) to top competition?

 

[DonaldDraper]

No sense in going deep into RPI and sims at this point. Both of the blowout losses this year came when the team had road games in close succession (tournament in portland playing consecutive days, Zona on 12/21 and Auburn on 12/23). Given this is the second game of the road trip and they haven't come back to CT since Tulane, they need to show that they can handle the back side of a road trip. Uconn needs to come away with any win they can muster. OT or whatever, it doesn't matter. They need to set the tone (from an energy perspective) that they plan on bringing to the Villanova game.

You claim confidence after winning a pair on the road, and have 3 days to practice for Villanova. No more moral victories. I'm not sure if they can practice at XL, but I'd try to shoot for as long as I can in that building leading up to the game. This team is plenty capable of beating Nova.

 

[upstater]

A win tomorrow will also be big because the travel schedule eases up considerably after that.

Wichita St. and Houston to end the season are the only long trips left. I guess you can consider East Carolina a long trip because after you deplane in Raleigh, you take a bus to the train, then you hop on a mule, and you're there in 5 more hours.

 

[Doctor Hoop]

Regarding the sim stats, Whaley with a goose-egg? I think not.

I'm cautiously optimistic, let's say, about Memphis. The key, as it has been this year, is defense. We will never be an offensive juggernaut, so put that thought out of mind. Avoid bad turnovers, force tough shots, and rebound the misses.

 

[The Funster]

Memphis is a winnable game. If the team has really begun to turn the corner this is a game they have to win. A close loss, for all intents and purposes, undoes the UCF and Tulane wins, IMO. That might sound harsh but the team put itself in this position. To lose at Memphis and then have to play Nova could put this team into a tailspin. We need to beat Memphis.

 

[Paesano]

It's strangely quiet. Maybe the "doomsday" crowd doesn't want to admit to any chance of victory and the "nothing is wrong" crowd doesn't want to say anything in case of an embarrassing loss.

Kenpom still has UConn at 127, which is starting to be a bit ridiculous. Memphis is 162.
In the ESPN RPI, UConn jumps to 78. That seems high to me. Memphis is 1o1, which is where we were before the Tulane game.

My brief thoughts: Memphis isn't very good. If we play the same level of basketball we did against UCF and Tulane, this should be a W. That's always a question mark with this team though. Our play in the last stay-over road game @Auburn couldn't have been worse.

What are you guys thinking?

I don't know what to think. I am in a wait and see mode at the moment. The team is a trainwreck but they had two solid games in a row. Not sure what will show up tomorrow.

 

[jibsey]

For those who think KO has a perfectly good roster that hasn't jelled yet, we make the shots we've been missing especially from 3 because it's law of averages, and we win. I like the way Carlton and Whaley have been progressing.

 

[methodology]

Here's the sim box -- a nice 3-16 performance from 3!

View attachment 27774

What do you use for these sims

 

[Dave]

Doomed

 

[HuskyHawk]

No sense in going deep into RPI and sims at this point. Both of the blowout losses this year came when the team had road games in close succession (tournament in portland playing consecutive days, Zona on 12/21 and Auburn on 12/23). Given this is the second game of the road trip and they haven't come back to CT since Tulane, they need to show that they can handle the back side of a road trip. Uconn needs to come away with any win they can muster. OT or whatever, it doesn't matter. They need to set the tone (from an energy perspective) that they plan on bringing to the Villanova game.

You claim confidence after winning a pair on the road, and have 3 days to practice for Villanova. No more moral victories. I'm not sure if they can practice at XL, but I'd try to shoot for as long as I can in that building leading up to the game. This team is plenty capable of beating Nova.

Indeed I feel pretty good about this game except for the fact that our two wretched performances both came in a second straight road/neutral game without a trip home in between. It makes me nervous.

By the way, when I said 78 was "high" I suppose I meant low. I meant that it is better than I expected. As for @upstater I think playing those tough games helps RPI....if you actually eventually win some games. No .500 or under team is going to look good in the RPI. I think as we win against these teams we slot ourselves above them and below the strong RPI teams we lost to. It makes sense to me.

 

[Husky68]

Massey has UConn #95 and Memphis #103 so essentially the same with it being a Memphis home game so a toss up vs. ratings. Very similar last 3 games with both teams having league victories over bottom 2/3's league teams. UConn should win if get at least average shooting (for a good team of 45%/35%/75%) and manage the turnover/rebounding area. Defense looked ok vs. Tulane. Larrier and Anderson need to be more offensive/efficient as can't count on Jalen to have a top notch performance every game. Young guys inside have to make their layups.
Win this game and next game has some juice. UConn wins with a solid performance (if not fire Ollie).

 

[UConnStats]

Regarding the sim stats, Whaley with a goose-egg? I think not.

I'm cautiously optimistic, let's say, about Memphis. The key, as it has been this year, is defense. We will never be an offensive juggernaut, so put that thought out of mind. Avoid bad turnovers, force tough shots, and rebound the misses.

Whaley takes 9.9% of FGA when he’s on the court, the only people who shoot less often than him are Onuorah and Williams. This is why the system had him only attempting 2 FG, in which case statistically he has a 36% chance of missing both shots as Whaley is shooting 60% on the year.

However, Whaley has averaged 4.75 FGA per game over the last 5 games, so I’d say he’s a pretty safe bet to surpass those projections as long as he stays on the court tomorrow. This projection system apparently has no change in weighting towards the most recent games. He’s been a much bigger part of the offense recently.

 

[Purple Stein]

What do you use for these sims

http://www.ncaagamesim.com

I'm gonna look like a shill at this point!

Here's this year's Huskies vs the 2013-2014 Huskies. Shabazz and Boat went for 21 each ...

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Memphis is a winnable game. If the team has really begun to turn the corner this is a game they have to win. A close loss, for all intents and purposes, undoes the UCF and Tulane wins, IMO. That might sound harsh but the team put itself in this position. To lose at Memphis and then have to play Nova could put this team into a tailspin. We need to beat Memphis.

Agree. The "close loss" got used up at Tulsa.

 

[Uconn92387]

The good thing about our conference this year is that about 7 to 8 teams have good wins against top 50 rpi opponents. We have 8 teams with 100 rpi or better. I think we can beat everyone but Witchita st and Cinn easily. The wins against the rest help our rpi combined with the fact all our losses are basically top 50 rpi losses. I am just happy the team is playing with energy and purpose especially on the defensive end. I think we have enough to be a bubble team. I expect another hard fought game on The road.

UConn 67
Memphis64

 

[Storrs South]

Memphis is shooting under 30% from 3 this season; for context Tulane is shooting 36% on the season and UCF 30%. If this 1-3-1 zone continues to work well in limiting open 3s, this should again be a good matchup for UConn. The interior D has been solid but they continue to get away with teams missing some open looks the perimeter.