So, how do we match up
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tOSU is a rich roster, with Sheldon, Mikesell, McMahon, Thierry, Green and Mikulasikova all averaging double figure scoring. Rikki Harris and Eboni Walker are also good utility players. This means they can go 8 deep and will often play 10. They aren't tall across the lineup, but they aren't short either -- a lot of 5'10'-6'0" players plus Mikulasikova at 6'4".
This tells me Aaliyah and Dorka will pose significant problems for them and we should own a significant rebounding advantage. Mikulasikova is no match for either of them on O or D.
The core of their non-transition offense comes from Sheldon and Mikesell on the perimeter and McMahon who brings energy and muscle to the inside game and has excellent post moves. But their offense is really enhanced by their pressing transition game. Stop that and they will seem pretty tame. Can we beat their press and even burn them on it? I think so, but it will take a significant contribution from Aubrey.
On defense, we need to face guard Mikesell, and that seem like a job for Azzi. We also need to shut down McMahon, and Aubrey and Caroline can manage this. Sheldon is a significant X-factor and Nika will have to do her best work here. Sheldon is quicker than Nika, and almost as tenacious. Almost.
But to me the keys are to take their press away -- Azzi, Nika, and Aaliyah and Dorka will do this just fine -- control Mikesell on the perimeter, and shut down McMahon. Do that and Sheldon won't matter so much. And if Azzi, Caroline and Lou find the range from 3, Aaliyah and Dorka will own the paint.
I think we got this, but it will be a challenge. We need a challenge.
This tells me Aaliyah and Dorka will pose significant problems for them and we should own a significant rebounding advantage. Mikulasikova is no match for either of them on O or D.
The core of their non-transition offense comes from Sheldon and Mikesell on the perimeter and McMahon who brings energy and muscle to the inside game and has excellent post moves. But their offense is really enhanced by their pressing transition game. Stop that and they will seem pretty tame. Can we beat their press and even burn them on it? I think so, but it will take a significant contribution from Aubrey.
On defense, we need to face guard Mikesell, and that seem like a job for Azzi. We also need to shut down McMahon, and Aubrey and Caroline can manage this. Sheldon is a significant X-factor and Nika will have to do her best work here. Sheldon is quicker than Nika, and almost as tenacious. Almost.
But to me the keys are to take their press away -- Azzi, Nika, and Aaliyah and Dorka will do this just fine -- control Mikesell on the perimeter, and shut down McMahon. Do that and Sheldon won't matter so much. And if Azzi, Caroline and Lou find the range from 3, Aaliyah and Dorka will own the paint.
I think we got this, but it will be a challenge. We need a challenge.
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Seems you're predicting a blowout, this game will be tougher than you described here IMO.
Blueballer
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I think we match up very well as long as all of our pieces remain healthy. Knock on wood.
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I think you must have read someone else's post. I don't expect a blowout, but I do expect a win. I merely pointed out what we'd have to do win. What's your analysis?
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I don't think they can run with uconn. I believe Azzi is finding herself, Caroline is becoming herself. Dorka and Edwards control the paint. Aubrey puts the engiser bunny to shame. Nika. Just be Nika. And the bench will rise. So can't wait. GO HUSKIES. They have that look in thier eyes. No fear. Together they take on the world. Would not bet against them. To get a his NC. Would so sweet. And I believe they will not give up on each other. It's about to get real interesting.
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I'm curious to see what the boneyard "prognosticators" will predict for this game:
score and MOV. I 've done my analysis and .... it's no blowout!
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tOSU likes to score in runs off their press. They can also score in the half court game. A lot depends on whether UConn can beat their press. If they can, I think the half court game favors UConn by a wide margin. If they can’t, then it will be a very close game.
My guess is UConn can dismantle the press because we have too many confident capable ball handlers, and especially Azzi. Under this assumption, I expect we win by 6-8 points.
I’m picturing something like this from the Texas game: Azzi inbounds the ball and gets it right back, Aaliyah or Dorka is stationed at the logo with Lou and one of the bigs at the other end. Either Azzi breaks the press single-handedly or she passes to Nika, or she passes to Dorka at half court who pivots and hits Lou for a 3 or Aaliyah in the paint for an easy layup. Their press relies on 3 guards to trap in the backcourt, which means only 2 to defend Lou and Aaliyah at the other end. That’s the problem with pressing UConn: it’s too dangerous.
Second assumption: Azzi Lou and Caroline light it up from 3. Either they do or they don’t. If they don’t, I think UConn wins by 6-8 as above. But if they do, I think it’s a larger margin, in the 12-15 range.
Other than Sheldon and Mikesell, all the matchups are decisively in our favor. Those two can simply “go off.” But if Nika and Azzi can control them, I don’t think the rest of the team can contain Aaliyah Dorka and Lou
YKCornelius
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Bone Dog, thanks for stepping up and providing some analysis. Good stuff. A few comments from the cheap seats:
1. I think we can take Madison Green out of the equation. She hasn't played for quite a while (injured, perhaps?) and at this stage of the season, McGruff bringing her back into the team chemistry - if she were available - would either be foolish or an act of desperation. Maybe one of the Ohio State fans can enlighten us on the status of Madison Greene.
2. For the last part of the season (read: since the early February blowout losses to Maryland and Indiana), Kevin McGuff has primarily played only seven players. This makes sense, as one would think he was/is most intent on team chemistry as he prepped for the BTT and NCAA tournaments. Although he went with eight during the BTT, it really seemed he was simply working Jacey Sheldon back into the line-up. Once the first two rounds of the NCAAs commenced, he went right back to seven, with Emma Shumate being relegated to the pine. So, I would be stunned if he goes beyond seven, unless there is an injury.
3. The fact that he stayed with seven players (eight during the BTT to regulate Sheldon's minutes) even though it seemed practically every game 2-3 Buckeye starters were in foul trouble, tells me that McGuff isn't comfortable with the end of his bench in tough games/situations.
4. I am most intrigued with how McGuff will use Mikulasikova. A starter last year and in all three NCAA games, after starting the first half of this season, she has come off the bench since mid-season. She is a BIG player who will shoot the three if left alone.
5. I think the Buckeyes will follow Baylor's strategy of setting double screens in order to free up three point shooters. Hence, while I love the idea of face guarding Mikesell, I think we need to be ready to switch between Nika, Azzi and Aubrey as the play unfolds (not a slight, but Caroline doesn't have the foot speed for covering either Sheldon or Mikesell). For the double screens, communication is the key for switching man coverage.
6. Cotie McMahon is an impressive, beautiful player to watch. A combination of speed, strength, explosiveness that is reminiscent of a young Nalyssa Smith from Baylor. The sky's the limit for this one.
7. During the post game discussion between Bob Joyce and Chris Dailey, CD said they will be working on breaking full court press coverage this week, anticipating that Ohio State will be deploying it after they score. I agree that if the Huskies burn the Buckeyes a few times, McGuff will most likely reconsider. Is it me, or does it seem that full court presses are most effective when you are deploying them in front of a screaming home court crowd? That will not be the case in Seattle.
8. Finally, I can't help but thinking that playing Baylor in the second round will help the Huskies immensely as they prepare for a similar guard-oriented team that also has strong, fast, athletic wings - who are young players with limited post-season experience.
Go Huskies!
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Excellent analysis, @YKCornelius . I’m totally with you, especially about McMahon. She’s explosive. Also about Mikulasikova, who was huge in their early run of wins after Sheldon’s injury. Since Sheldon’s return (and perhaps earlier) she seemed to take a backseat.
If they can run a lineup of Sheldon Mikesell McMahon Thierry and Harris for long stretches, they can be dangerous. Can our small lineup keep up with them? I think a lineup of Nika Azzi Lou Aubrey and Aaliyah can run with them to great effect if we’re hitting from the perimeter. McMahon and Thierry are no match for Aaliyah and will rack up fouls trying to stop her.
You’re right that Caroline can’t cover Sheldon or Mikesell. But she can definitely cover Thierry or McMahon. She’s taller than either of them and very clever as a defender and rebounder. But I wouldn’t use her instead of Aubrey. I’d sub her in for Lou.
I really like this year’s edition of tOSU, and mainly because of the dynamism of Sheldon Mikesell and McMahon. McGuff has put together a fine team.
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Aaliyah will be guarding McMahon and she will draw two offensive fouls on her before the first quarter is over.
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Thanks for this thorough, thoughtful analysis. Their short rotation and pressing style makes me wonder whether they will lose steam in the second half, much as Baylor did. UConn, as always, is supremely conditioned even though quite nicked up.
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They looked gassed against UNC imo
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I agree, I didn’t read Bone Dog’s analysis as a blowout at all. Just described strengths of OSU and how we could potentially offset them.
I don't do long analysis's , I go with what my gut tells me about Uconn as a team and what I believe they are capable of achieving with the combos on the floor during the game. Right now they are at their peak of performing and have the confidence of believing in themselves. We are at full strength and healthy. This is our year and we know it. Ohio State won't know what hit them till its all over. I predict we will do what is necessary to win going away. GO HUSKIES!!!!
HuskyFan1125
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My one concern is Ohio States press. I’ve seen them down multiple times throughout the season and absolutely crank that press and put them selves back into games where they have had large deficits. They can score. I think our bigs are better in the half court and could be where the game is won.
No question on the # of TOs Uconn has had but the vast majority of them have been in the half court. One thing about Ohio State, they are an overall relatively small team; with Edwards and Juhasz both pretty good ball handlers and better than that passers, I would expect to see Uconn going over the top of the press and trying to get Fudd and Senechal quick open jumpers to try to make Ohio State pay for pressing.
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We may have a larger fan base at the game so that will help our energy.
Hoping we cut down on our first half turnovers, mostly self-induced. Cutting those in half gives us a chance at a stronger scoring first half. All players should catch passes with two hands!
As for Ohio States's full court press, that can wear down them more than us. Passing downcourt rather than dribbling might be the better option, save on the 30 second shot clock and get right to the business of scoring. The faster we play our game seems to pick up. We are great playing to a 15-20 second shot clock.
Would love to see our guards go right to the hoop much more often with our bigs hunting down any misses. The work of Griffin in the last game was a masterpiece in offensive rebounding. We are a good matchup.
Hoping we cut down on our first half turnovers, mostly self-induced. Cutting those in half gives us a chance at a stronger scoring first half. All players should catch passes with two hands!
As for Ohio States's full court press, that can wear down them more than us. Passing downcourt rather than dribbling might be the better option, save on the 30 second shot clock and get right to the business of scoring. The faster we play our game seems to pick up. We are great playing to a 15-20 second shot clock.
Would love to see our guards go right to the hoop much more often with our bigs hunting down any misses. The work of Griffin in the last game was a masterpiece in offensive rebounding. We are a good matchup.
Aubrey is our best defender- she's taller and quicker than Nika- and with her ability to drive especially after receiving a pass on a fast break, she should see a lot of court time. I also hope Senechal will be returning to her normal dangerous scorer self- against Baylor, she seemed effected by their physical play and didn't score much. Her shooting has been so important all year. Caroline needs to close out better on switches but her offense is returning which is great. Ohio State's only shot seems to be their press- if we can break it and score off it, I think we will win by double digits.
