I went with my "gut" when I made those picks. But what do I know? I would have bet the farm UConn was going to win two years ago when they lost to Mississippi State.
Nobody saw that one coming (UConn beat them by 60 points the year before).
I though UConn was invincible that year. Had they beat MS, they would have defeated South Carolina. I think those 4 teams have "the best chance" to win it all. Any one of them can pee in the bed at any time, get upset and sent home.
Again, there are no clear cut favorites this year. Anybody including UConn can get hot, find a rhythm and put a modest 6 game win streak together over 3 weekends.
All of your comments have merit, no arguments here. Three of the teams I picked have only one loss. It will be easier to pick 4 favorites you like once the brackets are revealed. Right now, it's a crap shoot. Some teams are going to have it easier than others based on their seeding and their placement in the bracket.
ND has 3 losses, but as we saw last year, they can do more with less, and can be extremely resilient when the situation calls for it. Nobody wants to play ND in the tournament, just like for years, no one wanted to play UConn, or be on their side of the bracket.
I would NOT want to play UConn right now. They're on a vicious roll, and I would not want to get caught in their wake.
If they played Baylor and Louisville in Gampel this week, the results would be different.
Louisville depends a lot on Asia Durr. If she shows up and plays BIG, they have a chance. If a team can stop or slow her down (like UC did in the 1st qtr) the entire game, they're in trouble. I don't bank on teams that are dependent on just one player. Anybody can have a bad or off day.
Louisville can make it to the FF, but they're going to have to go through a least two very good teams to get there. Keep an eye on
Iowa and Megan Gustafson, the leading scorer in the country. They have the makings of a potential dark horse.
IF (in BIG bold letters) UConn can play for 6 games like they played against South Carolina and UCF, they have a better than average chance of winning it all.
They lost those two games because their shots did not fall. They shot
38% from the field vs Louisville. That's horrible!! They shot
29.4% against Baylor.
On the other hand, they shot
57% vs ECU,
62.9% vs Temple, and
56.9% vs South Carolina. All decisive wins. That's NOT rocket science. The numbers speak for themselves. When their shots fall, they win, and they win convincingly.
UConn is in a nice "vibe" right now. If they can maintain their current state of mind and body, they will be very hard to beat. The best thing to come of these last two games is that it appears that Christyn was emerged from the effects of hitting the wall.
Her shots are falling again, and she has her confidence back. They are going to need HUGE contributions from
ALL of their starters, especially Walker and Williams if they are going to raise that trophy on championship Sunday in Florida.
ONO may be needed for a few minutes in those last 3 games as well.
UConn will most likely have to face two #1 seeds that last weekend. I think UConn Nation should have a "corporate" group prayer before the tournament begins. A little divine intervention would not hurt. As Vic Schaefer likes to say:
"Praise the Lord and go dawgs." Great post by the way.