Small Sample Size

[my2cents]

My teachers of statistics taught me that small sample sizes lead to bad conclusions.
On this board, many comments are made about shooting slumps that are based on , just that...one or two games and few shots.
The general consensus is that an excellent shooters numbers would be 50/40/80....50% from 2's, 40% from 3's and 80% from the foul lime.
Diana Taurasi's career numbers were 47%/ 39%/82%....and we would all acknowledge what an offensive force she was.
Paige's last game she was 5/12 Total, 1/5 from 3's.....A slump? Hardly, if she made ONE more three, she would have been 6/12 (50%), and 2/5 (40%.) one missed shot does not make a slump.
Same with CW, she had two below avg. games...a major slump...but prior to

 

[Littlemin]

I made the comment she had a poor shooting night and my conclusion was not based on statistics but rather the way she missed. It is no revelation that good/great shooters miss long or short, not off to the side. Her three against South Carolina was a classic example, just a smidge long but still a chance to get a ‘shooters bounce” which she did. For the first time against Xavier, she had several missed shots that had absolutely no chance. Is it a big deal or a harbinger of things to come, absolutely not; to her credit, she had a great game anyway. But it is not only about stats but as always for me, about the eye test.

 

[MD#12Fan]

IMO Paige is still figuring out when to shoot. IMO she shoots a lot as an after-thought. There is a large enough sample size to know that Paige is a dead-eye shooter. If anyone has doubts, watch the last 6 minutes of the SC game. My theory is that she will have this figured out before the conference tournament and NCAA tournament. I predict she's going to go off!

 

[Longtime fan]

I just go on what I see. Statistics are a better indicator of your point...but I leave that to the folks who enjoy running the numbers. If I see Evina hit three threes in a row one week, and then clank every three for the next three games, including an air ball, it tells me her shooting ( and perhaps confidence ) are "off." Not forever, but until she starts hitting them again. The problem with statistics is that they don't guarantee anything for her next shot.