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People on this subject, man. This is actually more tame than what I usually get when I bring up how illogical this practice is.
I understand the games are not played in a lab. Things like human nature have to be considered. But those variables are far outweighed by the fallacy of conceding precious points and drastically lowering your winning probability to preserve a distorted idea that certain possessions matter more than others. You can lose a game in the final ten minutes of the first half just as easily as you can lose it in the final ten minutes of the game, especially when you're playing a great team. UConn lost that game when Cincinnati went on a 14-2 run after Adams sat down and, barring a miraculous comeback, UConn would have lost in part because of Okafor's absence in the '04 semis. That was not some success story.
If Cincinnati is going to optimize their offensive approach based on Adams' foul situation, that's good for us. It gets them out of their flow and takes the ball out of the hands of their best players - Adams very reasonably could have hidden on somebody like Kevin Johnson and been at minimal risk for picking up a fourth. He averages 2.4 fouls per 40 minutes, for Christ sake.
Every probability model and betting formula is contingent on every possession being of equal weight. Those people are smarter than coaches. We won the title in 2011, in part, because Kawai Leonard and Derrick Williams sat critical minutes with foul trouble. Them being out coincided with our run in each game and neither of them, from my memory, actually ended up fouling out. Those are fouls they'll never get to use.
With three fouls and that much time, it's debatable. 50 years from now, anybody who takes a guard out of the game because they picked up two fouls will be institutionalized.
I understand the games are not played in a lab. Things like human nature have to be considered. But those variables are far outweighed by the fallacy of conceding precious points and drastically lowering your winning probability to preserve a distorted idea that certain possessions matter more than others. You can lose a game in the final ten minutes of the first half just as easily as you can lose it in the final ten minutes of the game, especially when you're playing a great team. UConn lost that game when Cincinnati went on a 14-2 run after Adams sat down and, barring a miraculous comeback, UConn would have lost in part because of Okafor's absence in the '04 semis. That was not some success story.
If Cincinnati is going to optimize their offensive approach based on Adams' foul situation, that's good for us. It gets them out of their flow and takes the ball out of the hands of their best players - Adams very reasonably could have hidden on somebody like Kevin Johnson and been at minimal risk for picking up a fourth. He averages 2.4 fouls per 40 minutes, for Christ sake.
Every probability model and betting formula is contingent on every possession being of equal weight. Those people are smarter than coaches. We won the title in 2011, in part, because Kawai Leonard and Derrick Williams sat critical minutes with foul trouble. Them being out coincided with our run in each game and neither of them, from my memory, actually ended up fouling out. Those are fouls they'll never get to use.
With three fouls and that much time, it's debatable. 50 years from now, anybody who takes a guard out of the game because they picked up two fouls will be institutionalized.
