Should Uconn say "no" to the ACC?

[jbdphi]

Before you jump all over me, I'm just repeating the title of this blog post I caught in the overnight. This must be a Boneyard poster? Look on the side and you will see a well written dialogue as to why PP should be let go and that was after the Buffalo game.

http://stholeary.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/should-uconn-say-no-to-acc-and-stay-in.html?spref=tw

 

[Adios]

If the ACC can score a monster contract, it should be in good shape.

 

[noeynox]

If the ACC can score a monster contract, it should be in good shape.

Problem is their locked into a contract that is going to pay its teams significantly less than Pac, Sec, and the B1G. ESPN never stepped up to help the Big East from impending raids, by renegotiating its below market contract, will they bail out the ACC?

That said UConn cannot turn down an ACC invite.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Problem is their locked into a contract that is going to pay its teams significantly less than Pac, Sec, and the B1G. ESPN never stepped up to help the Big East from impending raids, by renegotiating its below market contract, will they bail out the ACC?

That said UConn cannot turn down an ACC invite.

ESPN did bail out the Big 12 when the Big 12 threatened to dissolve. If ESPN will not bail out the ACC now, it will lose its 6-8 most valuable schools. That is a fact. I have operated under the assumption that ESPN will bail the league out when push comes to shove, but only ESPN knows for sure whether they will or not. UConn should protect itself from the situation where the ACC gets torn apart, because it could be better off staying home and taking the ACC schools into the BE or forming a new league than it would be in joining that conference.

And if the ACC is shredded, the Big East will get a very good TV deal.

 

[SAMCRO]

Why stay? Absolute worse case, the ACC gets picked apart and loses FSU, Clemson, NCSU, VT, and maybe Uva and UNC. You pick up any # of UL, UC, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU, or Temple. Its significantly more $ and Still beats the hell out of what the BE will be very soon (and no more PC, SH, or DePaul). Would it suck if this happened? Absolutely. Would it be better than our current situation? Absolutely.

 

[jbdphi]

It's all supposition but I have a very strong feeling that being in the ACC (if that is where we end up) will be no picnic. The B1G, SEC and the Big 12 will carve that league up like a Thanksgiving turkey over the next months / years.

The only wild card in all of this is is ESPN and what they are willing / able to do with a reconstituted ACC. If they are able to enforce the current contract without any termination rights from the ACC then I could see many teams looking for a liferaft from the ACC like they had been out of the Big East.

The B1G and the PAC12 are playing at a higher level with their own networks and the dual sources of revenue that those engender. The SEC will be there shortly. I'm not 100% positive where the Big 12 stands right now but I know they aren't locked into an agreement that gives up all their content for a fixed price over the next X number of years. The ACC's revenue model, in a constantly changing paradigm, is already an albatross hanging over its neck.

Of course, ESPN needs that albatross because they are already starting to lose relevance in a system where the conferences have their own in-house distribution. They are still paying through the nose for the new playoff format but that is an incredibly limited amount of time slots at a very high price compared to the amount of inventory that regular season games can provide. ESPN needs the ACC to stay relevant because they are the only captive conference they have left (assuming the Big East goes elsewhere if it actually survives).

I have no idea what happens but it really is fascinating. Like the writer of the blog post states, I think if we got / get a call from Swofford, we'd likely accept very quickly with minimal conditions and breathe a huge sigh of relief at the same time. But if that $50 million break-fee holds up in court (which I think it very much would) and the B1G comes calling in a year or two, we may look back and think it would have been better to bide our time in the NNBE.

 

[Jericho]

Only if you're under some belief that the Big 10 will come calling. But since the Big 10 has not come yet (when the school is openly begging for a new home), unless there's been substantial discussions behind closed doors that will result in an imminent invite then the ACC is a no-brainier. Louisville seems to have no qualms about joining the ACC, even though they may make more money and could be a viable addition to the Big 12. That should tell you something.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Only if you're under some belief that the Big 10 will come calling. But since the Big 10 has not come yet (when the school is openly begging for a new home), unless there's been substantial discussions behind closed doors that will result in an imminent invite then the ACC is a no-brainier. Louisville seems to have no qualms about joining the ACC, even though they may make more money and could be a viable addition to the Big 12. That should tell you something.

It isn't a no brainer. From what I have read, the ACC contract is $15MM a year with a bullet at the end. That is not nearly enough to hold the league together when every single school in the ACC is worth much more than that to another league. If ESPN does not amend that contract, the ACC is going to get shredded in realignment. And if that happens, being in the open market is a better place to be than locked up in a lousy long-term deal. We also don't know if there are any built-in penalties in the deal for losing schools.

The WAC teams are kicking themselves for joining the MWC now. Whatever the WAC's problems, it only had 2 years left on its contract while the MWC deal runs through 2019. The MWC schools make less than $1MM a year, while the WAC would have made 2 or 3x that on the open market right now. Other than the fact that the MWC had better, higher profile programs, I can't figure out why all the WAC teams joined because financially it was a terrible decision. The Big East and ACC are in the same spot now. If ESPN does not amend the ACC TV contract, there is no financial reason to join that league and lock into a 15 year deal that is below market now and will be 1/3 of market by the end.

 

[Stinger92860]

If not the ACC we may have to go Indy. There could be a BE but it the way things look it will only have 4 football schools. Cincy, Temple, USF, UConn/Louisvile (pick 1). This could play out as the other schools who were looking to join may not join.

 

[Dooley]

In addition to being at ESPN's mercy, UConn would be at the ACC's mercy if it lost members. The $50M exit fee is steep. If the B1G ever came calling (and President Herbst has been angling for this since her hire with trying to raise UConn's endowment from $300M to $1B, hiring more faculty in the next 4 years, and allocating more money to research to catch the eye of the AAU...then hiring the former associate AD at Michigan as her AD), I'm sure UConn wouldn't want to have to price a $50M exit fee into what may be a diluted early share, similar to what RU and MD received. Also, the ACC seems to be at the mercy of Notre Dame (sound familiar?) right now. Without going all in for football, maybe the "football" members of the ACC will probably bolt.

I think (just my own guess, for what that's worth) is that UConn would accept an invite to the ACC if offered ONLY after exhausting the phone lines and back channels to the B1G offices and schools. While swapping conferences in a short period of time isn't unheard of (read: TCU), I think the preferred approach from our administration will be to quietly angle for the B1G first, knowing that the ACC will be there if it is raided again.

UConn has a TON to offer any conference with its combination of location, academics (and increased budget), and athletic excellence. It's also a flagship university and the only sports show in town. Frankly, I'm not worried much anymore. I am confident UConn will land on its feet when the music stops.

 

[noeynox]

If the BIG comes calling later, take out a loan and pay the 50 million. The difference in revenue will be so great that it eventually pays for itself many times over.

The Big East barring a total implosion from that acc will get less money than the acc. There is also the issue of the Power 5 (where the acc. Resides) and the group of 5 where the big east resides. Simply put, uconn has to say yes.

 

[ZooCougar]

Hell no. Say yes.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Why stay? Absolute worse case, the ACC gets picked apart and loses FSU, Clemson, NCSU, VT, and maybe Uva and UNC. You pick up any # of UL, UC, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU, or Temple. Its significantly more $ and Still beats the hell out of what the BE will be very soon (and no more PC, SH, or DePaul). Would it suck if this happened? Absolutely. Would it be better than our current situation? Absolutely.

The leftovers of the ACC (after UVa and UNC go the B1G, VaTech and NC State go to the SEC, and FlaState and Clemson go to the Big 12) are BCU, Syracuse, Pitt, Wake, Duke, GaTech, and Miami. How is joining them a step up?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The leftovers of the ACC (after UVa and UNC go the B1G, VaTech and NC State go to the SEC, and FlaState and Clemson go to the Big 12) are BCU, Syracuse, Pitt, Wake, Duke, GaTech, and Miami. How is joining them a step up?

It's also not clear that if 6-8 schools leave, the leftovers will even want to be in a league with UConn, Louisville and Cincinnati. They may just vote to dissolve the league, pocket the exit fees, and form a new conference with like-minded academically focused schools.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Also, if ESPN is willing to let UVa, VTech, Maryland, GTech, Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC and NC State leave, they are saying they basically don't want the ACC property. They may simply terminate the contract based on membership departures.

This ACC decision is not nearly as easy as some of you think.

 

[tzznandrew]

The leftovers of the ACC (after UVa and UNC go the B1G, VaTech and NC State go to the SEC, and FlaState and Clemson go to the Big 12) are BCU, Syracuse, Pitt, Wake, Duke, GaTech, and Miami. How is joining them a step up?

How is that a step up from Houston, SMU, Memphis, San Diego State, Temple, Central Florida?

Sorry. If you don't think a conference of those school, plus Louisville, Cincy, and USF isn't better than that dreck, you're lost. Every one of the schools you listed is a real school. Some of them have national championships. You could drive to some games.

BC Sucks, but I'd rather play them than UCF.
Pitt hasn't been good in years. But they are way better than Memphis, SMU, and Houston.
And so on, and so on.

You're also assuming the ACC gets destroyed. How stupid would it be to deny the ACC, have them take Louisville, and then stick together. That's like burning your money on December 21st because you think the world is going to end.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The leftovers of the ACC (after UVa and UNC go the B1G, VaTech and NC State go to the SEC, and FlaState and Clemson go to the Big 12) are BCU, Syracuse, Pitt, Wake, Duke, GaTech, and Miami. How is joining them a step up?

That's a huge step up from the rest of the NBE (Memphis, Houston, SDSU, SMU...). Because the ACC can add Louisville, Cincy, CFU and SFU any time they want. The Big East is will shortly be nothing but a memory, whether the ACC implodes or not. There is no "stay", stay means the MAC or independent status.

 

[Point6]

Not only would I tell the ACC to go F itself - I would also tell the B1G it can go F itself. Then I jump in the car and go beat the SEC's . If the B12 gets in the way, I kick its too. You have something to say PAC12??? - c'mon say it - where is your "I'll grab Utah" now B**TCH???

 

[freescooter]

So much of this is based on the theory that North Carolina, NC State, VaTech, Virginia,Georgia Tech, Florida State and Clemson all leave. I have to say I don't think that is too likely. Where are they going to go? To me its a stretch to get Uva and UNC to the Big 10. And its a stretch to get the Big 10 to 16, too. For the moment the B-12 is happy at 10, mostly because its two jewels, Texas and Oklahoma don't want to lose a chance at the title because of some dumb league championship game. If they are forced they will probably go to 12, maybe 14, but they could well look more lower mid-west/west and go to Louisville, Cincy, BYU, or some other southwestern addition rather than southeast for Florida State and/or Clemson. the SEC isn't taking the #2 school in either Florida or South Carolina either. And don't forget that in at least two schools, you're assuming that state politics would enable the prestigious University to leave its larger less prestigious brother behind. In both cases the brother has both a larger student body and a larger local alumni base, too. and that cuts both ways. I just think that any scenario that forsees the total demise of the ACC is reaching pretty far. Could it happen? well, Rutgers is in the big 10 so I guess anything is possible. But I really think it is highly dependent on too many things that are unlikely all occurring. I also think the ACC could easily survive the loss of 1 or two members, even Florida State which has never really fit anyway. bottom line is that unless you have a Big offer in hand, you have to say yes to the ACC.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

So much of this is based on the theory that North Carolina, NC State, VaTech, Virginia,Georgia Tech, Florida State and Clemson all leave. I have to say I don't think that is too likely. Where are they going to go? To me its a stretch to get Uva and UNC to the Big 10. And its a stretch to get the Big 10 to 16, too. For the moment the B-12 is happy at 10, mostly because its two jewels, Texas and Oklahoma don't want to lose a chance at the title because of some dumb league championship game. If they are forced they will probably go to 12, maybe 14, but they could well look more lower mid-west/west and go to Louisville, Cincy, BYU, or some other southwestern addition rather than southeast for Florida State and/or Clemson. the SEC isn't taking the #2 school in either Florida or South Carolina either. And don't forget that in at least two schools, you're assuming that state politics would enable the prestigious University to leave its larger less prestigious brother behind. In both cases the brother has both a larger student body and a larger local alumni base, too. and that cuts both ways. I just think that any scenario that forsees the total demise of the ACC is reaching pretty far. Could it happen? well, Rutgers is in the big 10 so I guess anything is possible. But I really think it is highly dependent on too many things that are unlikely all occurring. I also think the ACC could easily survive the loss of 1 or two members, even Florida State which has never really fit anyway. bottom line is that unless you have a Big offer in hand, you have to say yes to the ACC.

Where are they going to go? The Big 10, SEC and Big 12 would kick one of their members out if UNC or UVa would join. Those are two of the most prestigious state schools in the country. They can go wherever the hell they want. If ESPN doesn't step up with more cash, the ACC is coming apart. It is ESPN's call.

 

[UconnBoston]

Its a very easy decision for a couple of reasons: (1) the only alternative is remain in the Big East, which is on far far shakier ground than the ACC; (2) Uconn has a lot of very positive qualities which will make it a very attractive candidate to be added to one of what many perceive will be the power 4 conferences, however, we are not presently in a strong position because of the current state of our basketball and football programs. Uconn needs to buy itself time to stabilize the basketball program (hopefully under KO) and turn around the football program (hopefully by firing PP). Additionally, as pointed out above, Uconn needs more time to build its endowment and its case for admission into the AAU. Membership in the ACC may not provide sufficient time to accomplish all of these goals, but hopefully the music stops long enough for Uconn to sufficiently build its candidacy so that next time around we can sneak into the B1G. Further, membership in the ACC in the short-term will make these goals easier to achieve than will membership in the Big East.

 

[freescooter]

Where are they going to go? The Big 10, SEC and Big 12 would kick one of their members out if UNC or UVa would join. Those are two of the most prestigious state schools in the country. They can go wherever the hell they want. If ESPN doesn't step up with more cash, the ACC is coming apart. It is ESPN's call.

OK, that's UNC and Virginia. One is a basketball power. the other not so much. Neither are football powers that I can recall. Who's going to "kick out one of their members" for Clemson? Or Virginia Tech? NC State? The problem with your scenario is that it assumes too many things that are unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely. In a risk assessment the ACC breaking up is pretty low.

 

[Sean O]

I'm the author so thanks for posting & getting some discussion going. If the ACC doesn't lose anyone but Maryland, my blog post is rendered moot. But everyone thought realignment was over as recently as 2 weeks ago, ya know?

If I were UConn, I'd try to keep the Big East afloat until the Big Ten calls. If I'm Louisville or Cincy, I do the same until the Big 12 calls. The ACC is going to be chopped up, whether it happens this year, next year or 5 years from now. It's just not good enough at football.

 

[Stinger92860]

How is that a step up from Houston, SMU, Memphis, San Diego State, Temple, Central Florida?

Sorry. If you don't think a conference of those school, plus Louisville, Cincy, and USF isn't better than that dreck, you're lost. Every one of the schools you listed is a real school. Some of them have national championships. You could drive to some games.

BC Sucks, but I'd rather play them than UCF.
Pitt hasn't been good in years. But they are way better than Memphis, SMU, and Houston.
And so on, and so on.

You're also assuming the ACC gets destroyed. How stupid would it be to deny the ACC, have them take Louisville, and then stick together. That's like burning your money on December 21st because you think the world is going to end.

AND we get to keep the bbal tourney in NYC....either MSG or the Bsrclay's.......

 

[IMind]

The money you get in the Big East short term is at best going to be equal to what the ACC has (assuming an NBC deal comes through for a decent amount) and that's a huge assumption to make... and the TV exposure is going to be better in the ACC. There's really no pluses to staying in the Big East short term or long term.

If all things had remained the same could the Big East have been a fairly lucrative conference and kept us competative, probably... but that ship started pulling out to port when 'Cuse and Pitt left and it completely sunk when Rutgers left. I'm not talking about football competativeness or even basketball... I'm talking about marketable brands. Temple, Memphis, and SDSU just don't cut it.