Shot Selection

[Chief00]

Gilbert had 7 assists last game. Danny is giving him a roadmap to success and he is following it. With James added and B Adams developing, he no longer has the scoring burden he once had. If you talked to AG, one reason he took so many shots was because he thought he needed to - that’s no longer the case.

 

[pj]

Gilbert at 25-28 mpg has a decent chance of making it through the season. Gilbert at 35 mpg has almost no chance of making it through the season. Fatigue and wear and tear are cumulative, and Gilbert doesn't have a body built to withstand 35 mpg.

This is just not true. If his body can't withstand 35 mpg due to injury risk, then it's not likely to withstand 28 mpg either.

 

[jibsey]

so last year Gilbert was close to 40% field goal percentage and 40% three-point percentage with almost four assists per game in approximately 29 minutes. He just needs to get back to those averages and unless he has some kind of injury right now I would expect him to.

 

[Dogdeacon]

doesn't *


I assume you were trolling for that response.

Absolutely & thank you. Just doing my part to Fort the ead!

 

[Dogdeacon]

This is just not true. If his body can't withstand 35 mpg due to injury risk, then it's not likely to withstand 28 mpg either.

Thanks! What you don't know is that nelson conducted an exhaustive physical assessment and at anything over 27.778954 minutes per game, Alterique's injury risk jumps two standard deviations into almost the middle of the injury risk bell curve. Unless you can produce the stats behind your assessment we have to stick with nelson's analytics.

More seriously though, much like stats per minute, I think some of the Alterique opinion is based on the coaching staff finding the minutes per game that maximize efficiency. And clearly Alterique isn't Kemba Walker who could play 38 minutes most games with no physical or play quality deterioration.

 

[Boukworm23]

This thread really came off the rails after a promising start.

At least it hasn’t devolved into frowny faces.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Thanks! What you don't know is that nelson conducted an exhaustive physical assessment and at anything over 27.778954 minutes per game, Alterique's injury risk jumps two standard deviations into almost the middle of the injury risk bell curve. Unless you can produce the stats behind your assessment we have to stick with nelson's analytics.

More seriously though, much like stats per minute, I think some of the Alterique opinion is based on the coaching staff finding the minutes per game that maximize efficiency. And clearly Alterique isn't Kemba Walker who could play 38 minutes most games with no physical or play quality deterioration.

You are right. Overplaying players has no impact at all on whether they get injured. Why does Lebron ever come off the court?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This is just not true. If his body can't withstand 35 mpg due to injury risk, then it's not likely to withstand 28 mpg either.

PJ on the Boneyard knows more about load management than Kawhi Leonard and the 76ers organization. Got it.

 

[pj]

PJ on the Boneyard knows more about load management than Kawhi Leonard and the 76ers organization. Got it.

Optimizing minutes per game is different than injury risk. The relationship of conditioning and rest to performance is different than the relationship to injury risk.

 

[HooperScooper]

I expect Gilbert's minutes to drop over the course of the season, and I think that is a good thing for UConn and Gilbert. Gilbert at 25-28 mpg has a decent chance of making it through the season. Gilbert at 35 mpg has almost no chance of making it through the season. Fatigue and wear and tear are cumulative, and Gilbert doesn't have a body built to withstand 35 mpg.

I would agree that 35 minutes is probably too much for anyone. But I'm curious why you say that? Because of his shoulder injury history? He's very well built so I don't think it has anything to do with his body.

 

[Dogdeacon]

You are right. Overplaying players has no impact at all on whether they get injured. Why does Lebron ever come off the court?

I was agreeing with you?! The sarcasm's intent was to point out that obviously the 28 minutes you mentioned was an arbitrary number for discussion purposes, but it doesn't have to be a scientific fact (impossible) for the point to remain valid. Reasonable minds ought to agree that maxing out minutes for a guy that has missed tons of time to injuries for 3 years running is valid. Of course we don't know, no one does. Arguing about the specific numbers and expecting any certainty around the risks is just arguing without real critical thinking.

 

[andy34]

Optimizing minutes per game is different than injury risk. The relationship of conditioning and rest to performance is different than the relationship to injury risk.

This is a good point. The other dimension here is that our style of play is shifting, which impacts all of these factors. If we continue to play faster (as Hurley's teams have traditionally done) then the conditioning demands will increase and lead to more substitutions, etc.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Optimizing minutes per game is different than injury risk. The relationship of conditioning and rest to performance is different than the relationship to injury risk.

But there is a relationship, you acknowledge that. Go skiing. Do you ski better when you are gassed? Are you more likely to get injured when tired? Try to get to point where you are mentally and physically tired and then go do a slalom run in the glades.

If you are thinking of responding that skiing is different than basketball, wait and try the above before responding.

 

[pj]

But there is a relationship, you acknowledge that. Go skiing. Do you ski better when you are gassed? Are you more likely to get injured when tired? Try to get to point where you are mentally and physically tired and then go do a slalom run in the glades.

If you are thinking of responding that skiing is different than basketball, wait and try the above before responding.

I don't dispute the basic point that a fatigued body is at higher risk of injury. But, you seem to be forgetting what I was responding to, which was this:

Gilbert at 25-28 mpg has a decent chance of making it through the season. Gilbert at 35 mpg has almost no chance of making it through the season. Fatigue and wear and tear are cumulative

A few observations:

1. Steps can be taken to mitigate the injury risk from extra minutes of play, e.g. improving conditioning (so that 35 mpg in a well conditioned player is as low risk as 25 mpg in a less well conditioned player) or the player pacing himself in the game (e.g. having another player bring the ball up court to rest the point guard).
2. Most of a player's actual playing time is in practice not games, and practices can be nearly as intense as games, so an extra 7-10 mpg (in a 30 game season, 200-300 minutes of play over 5 months) is a pretty small increment in load, especially if the player's practice burden is reduced when he needs rest.
3. It's not the case that fatigue and wear and tear are cumulative. All exercise breaks down tissue/muscle and then it gets rebuilt over the next few days. In that sense all fatigue and wear and tear are regenerative of strength. One cannot simply equate higher usage to higher injury risk. A higher volume of sound usage actually reduces injury risk. Lightly used players can have a high injury risk.

Given these observations, it's simply wrong to say that "Gilbert at 35 mpg has almost no chance of making it through the season" and to couple it with "Gilbert at 25-28 mpg has a decent chance of making it through the season". There's no way that both of these are correct if Hurley, Alosi, Gilbert, and the trainer are doing their jobs. His usage level will not be a major factor.

If everyone involved is doing things correctly, the injury risk is nearly the same with either usage. Either Gilbert is at high risk of injury (due to being intrinsically injury prone) or he is not.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I don't dispute the basic point that a fatigued body is at higher risk of injury. But, you seem to be forgetting what I was responding to, which was this:



A few observations:

1. Steps can be taken to mitigate the injury risk from extra minutes of play, e.g. improving conditioning (so that 35 mpg in a well conditioned player is as low risk as 25 mpg in a less well conditioned player) or the player pacing himself in the game (e.g. having another player bring the ball up court to rest the point guard).
2. Most of a player's actual playing time is in practice not games, and practices can be nearly as intense as games, so an extra 7-10 mpg (in a 30 game season, 200-300 minutes of play over 5 months) is a pretty small increment in load, especially if the player's practice burden is reduced when he needs rest.
3. It's not the case that fatigue and wear and tear are cumulative. All exercise breaks down tissue/muscle and then it gets rebuilt over the next few days. In that sense all fatigue and wear and tear are regenerative of strength. One cannot simply equate higher usage to higher injury risk. A higher volume of sound usage actually reduces injury risk. Lightly used players can have a high injury risk.

Given these observations, it's simply wrong to say that "Gilbert at 35 mpg has almost no chance of making it through the season" and to couple it with "Gilbert at 25-28 mpg has a decent chance of making it through the season". There's no way that both of these are correct if Hurley, Alosi, Gilbert, and the trainer are doing their jobs. His usage level will not be a major factor.

If everyone involved is doing things correctly, the injury risk is nearly the same with either usage. Either Gilbert is at high risk of injury (due to being intrinsically injury prone) or he is not.

People are more likely to get injured when they are fatigued. This is not rocket science. If you want to argue that fatigue has no impact on injury risk, go for it.

Fatigue IS cumulative, in that if a player over does it one game, and then comes back and over does it the next, and the next, and the next, the risk of injury keeps going up until that player recovers. Also, injuries beget injuries, so a player tweaking his ankle and trying to play through it can result in a more serious injury as the player compensates for the first injury.

You make my argument for me by bringing in the argument that exercise is regenerative. Would you recommend doing exactly the same set every single day? Of course not. Most training regimens do not have someone repeating the same exercise over and over, and include rest days so the body can regenerate.

The NBA Players Association is trying to reduce the number of games. And LeBron just gave an interview where he complained about the AAU circuit playing too many games. It is possible that they know what they are talking about.

I have an idea. Everyone on this board that is arguing that load management is a myth should play pickup basketball against good competition an hour a day for a month, and let us know if you make it without getting hurt.

 

[pj]

People are more likely to get injured when they are fatigued. This is not rocket science. If you want to argue that fatigue has no impact on injury risk, go for it.

Fatigue IS cumulative, in that if a player over does it one game, and then comes back and over does it the next, and the next, and the next, the risk of injury keeps going up until that player recovers. Also, injuries beget injuries, so a player tweaking his ankle and trying to play through it can result in a more serious injury as the player compensates for the first injury.

You make my argument for me by bringing in the argument that exercise is regenerative. Would you recommend doing exactly the same set every single day? Of course not. Most training regimens do not have someone repeating the same exercise over and over, and include rest days so the body can regenerate.

The NBA Players Association is trying to reduce the number of games. And LeBron just gave an interview where he complained about the AAU circuit playing too many games. It is possible that they know what they are talking about.

I have an idea. Everyone on this board that is arguing that load management is a myth should play pickup basketball against good competition an hour a day for a month, and let us know if you make it without getting hurt.

We're talking college basketball - Alterique playing for UConn. Two games per week. That's enough time to recover from one game before the next game starts. NBA with games most days and AAU with 5 games in a weekend are different. As for playing with an injury leading to more injuries, we just saw Hurley hold Akok out of a game due to a gimpy knee, when Akok himself was ready to play. I think we can count on this staff to do things the right way.