Shot Selection

[nelsonmuntz]

Most teams' shooting percentage can be traced to shot selection. The games this weekend were a good example of that. Vital is a very good shooter, but when he resorts to slow dribble, 1-on-1, contested pull up jumpers, he becomes a very bad shooter. When he finds open spots away from the ball and shoots off the catch, he is a very good shooter. That is how he goes from 2 of 12 against Xavier (lots of long contested pull ups) to 4 for 8 against Miami. He didn't shoot better against Miami, he took better shots. And while one of his 2 makes against Xavier was a pull up 3, he was wide open, so his feet were set when he shot it.

The NBA has been tracking this stuff for a while, and the eFG% of catch-and-shoot jumpers is about 53% compared to 42% for pullups last year. Those stats include players like Harden and Curry that are among the best of all time at shooting off the dribble. It is fair to assume that the shooting percentage gap between catch-and-shoot and pull-ups for most non-NBA players is bigger than 11%. The difference between winning and losing for UConn is going to be fairly small in a lot of UConn's games this season, and even a 3 or 4 percentage point improvement in shooting percentage will be huge.

Those misses cause other problems too. Bilas will point out that a bad shot is the first pass of the other team's fastbreak. Watch any game and track what happens after someone takes a crazy shot, like a contested, pull-up 3. It often will front rim for a long rebound to a guard, that is now off in the other direction while the shooting team's entire front court if still under the basket with no chance of catching him. 10% shots on one end frequently become 90% shots at the other end.

If Vital and Gilbert in particular can cut out the 2-3 lowest percentage shots they take every game, it will have a big impact on the overall shooting percentage and on the team winning or losing. Hurley is a little old school in that he seems to let the players play, but sometimes the new analytics are not wrong. Shot selection is one of the easiest things to improve from a coaching standpoint, and I think it will be the difference between a 25 win NCAA season, and an 18 win NIT season.

 

[Dooooooomed]

Great post.

 

[jibsey]

Hurley lashed out at those bashing Gilbert and rightly so I guess because he’s needed for this team to succeed. Gilbert’s %’s should revert to his normal numbers over time The high 30’s not 20. What bothered the fans was the driving, not dishing and throwing up prayers. Vital and Gilbert got no place to go but up. The thing is now though we have new guys who can make those shots like Bouk and Akok at higher % maybe.

 

[Stinger92860]

Data usually doesn’t lie. We saw a much more efficient AG on Sunday and his D pressure was awesome.

 

[Get a Job]

Data usually doesn’t lie. We saw a much more efficient AG on Sunday and his D pressure was awesome.

Don't *

 

[tzznandrew]

Don't *

There's no reason to correct people's grammar on a message board. BUT, if you're going to be a stickler and correct something, at least correct something that hasn't essentially been standard English for a while now. Yes, data is technically a plural Latin noun, but English isn't Latin. Even the OED has conceded this:

In modern non-scientific use, however, it is generally not treated as a plural. Instead, it is treated as a mass noun, similar to a word like information, which takes a singular verb. Sentences such as data was collected over a number of years are now widely accepted in standard English

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Likes to both of you for the pedantry and counter-pedantry.

 

[Get a Job]

There's no reason to correct people's grammar on a message board. BUT, if you're going to be a stickler and correct something, at least correct something that hasn't essentially been standard English for a while now. Yes, data is technically a plural Latin noun, but English isn't Latin. Even the OED has conceded this:

Data | Definition of Data by Lexico

Guess I'm old school

 

[Shine33]

Good post but this is really just a more mathematical way of saying what a lot of posters on here have been saying. Vital and Gilbert need to shoot less, take higher quality shots when they do shoot and make better decisions overall. Pretty simple.
Really don’t need all that data to know what a bad shot looks like. But the data is nice to have when you need objective proof of the argument

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Likes to both of you for the pedantry and counter-pedantry.

Let's revisit this the next time someone talks about "the media."

 

[Stinger92860]

Don't *

English is a 2nd language for me. I slept through English but woke up during math and finance classes. So far it’s working out for me. Hope English is working out for you.

 

[tzznandrew]

English is a 2nd language for me. I slept through English but woke up during math and finance classes. So far it’s working out for me. Hope English is working out for you.

People who study English do just fine for themselves, so I'm sure it's working out. Pretty cool that you speak multiple languages, though.

 

[BuffaloHusky]

I've made the argument for years but actually taking the first quality shot is also vital in the college games. Too often players settle into their half court sets against good defenses and are forced into sub-optimal shots as the shot clock expires or worse a turnover. Instead, I'm an advocate of taking advantage of any good look especially off rebounds when defenses are a bit on their heels and a mid range 15 footer or quick post up is available. This was harder to take advantage of in the last few years given the injuries and lack of depth but should be fully exploited this season.

 

[Get a Job]

English is a 2nd language for me. I slept through English but woke up during math and finance classes. So far it’s working out for me. Hope English is working out for you.

People who study English do just fine for themselves, so I'm sure it's working out. Pretty cool that you speak multiple languages, though.

I actually studied German and engineering, but my behavior has nothing to do with that. I'm just a jerk

 

[Stinger92860]

People who study English do just fine for themselves, so I'm sure it's working out. Pretty cool that you speak multiple languages, though.

Oh no, I’ve yet to master any single language. Ciao!

 

[Kembacity]

English is a 2nd language for me. I slept through English but woke up during math and finance classes. So far it’s working out for me. Hope English is working out for you.

How is being a crabby little POS working out for you? Well?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This thread really came off the rails after a promising start.

 

[Dogdeacon]

This thread really came off the rails after a promising start.

True that. Ball don't lie.

 

[BlueMAB]

Most teams' shooting percentage can be traced to shot selection. The games this weekend were a good example of that. Vital is a very good shooter, but when he resorts to slow dribble, 1-on-1, contested pull up jumpers, he becomes a very bad shooter. When he finds open spots away from the ball and shoots off the catch, he is a very good shooter. That is how he goes from 2 of 12 against Xavier (lots of long contested pull ups) to 4 for 8 against Miami. He didn't shoot better against Miami, he took better shots. And while one of his 2 makes against Xavier was a pull up 3, he was wide open, so his feet were set when he shot it.

The NBA has been tracking this stuff for a while, and the eFG% of catch-and-shoot jumpers is about 53% compared to 42% for pullups last year. Those stats include players like Harden and Curry that are among the best of all time at shooting off the dribble. It is fair to assume that the shooting percentage gap between catch-and-shoot and pull-ups for most non-NBA players is bigger than 11%. The difference between winning and losing for UConn is going to be fairly small in a lot of UConn's games this season, and even a 3 or 4 percentage point improvement in shooting percentage will be huge.

Those misses cause other problems too. Bilas will point out that a bad shot is the first pass of the other team's fastbreak. Watch any game and track what happens after someone takes a crazy shot, like a contested, pull-up 3. It often will front rim for a long rebound to a guard, that is now off in the other direction while the shooting team's entire front court if still under the basket with no chance of catching him. 10% shots on one end frequently become 90% shots at the other end.

If Vital and Gilbert in particular can cut out the 2-3 lowest percentage shots they take every game, it will have a big impact on the overall shooting percentage and on the team winning or losing. Hurley is a little old school in that he seems to let the players play, but sometimes the new analytics are not wrong. Shot selection is one of the easiest things to improve from a coaching standpoint, and I think it will be the difference between a 25 win NCAA season, and an 18 win NIT season.

The one thing you didn't touch on here (i think) is when those bad shots are taken.

From my eye, it seems like most are under 10 on the shot clock. That's a byproduct of good defense and bad offense.

I'm not saying Vital/Gilbert don't take bad shots, but usually (NOT always) it seems a product of the shot clock. If anyone has the data on how much time is left on the clock when Vital/Gilbert are shooting, I think it would be insightful.

 

[tzznandrew]

This thread really came off the rails after a promising start.

I mean, to be fair, at the core of the OP was "high percentage shots are good and low percentage ones are bad and the team would be better with more high percentage shots." It's a completely true statement that cannot generate much further discussion.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The one thing you didn't touch on here (i think) is when those bad shots are taken.

From my eye, it seems like most are under 10 on the shot clock. That's a byproduct of good defense and bad offense.

I'm not saying Vital/Gilbert don't take bad shots, but usually (NOT always) it seems a product of the shot clock. If anyone has the data on how much time is left on the clock when Vital/Gilbert are shooting, I think it would be insightful.

I get that guards are going to have to launch a few every game late in the clock to avoid a violation. You get into the "eye test" a little here, although a lot of those clock run downs by Vital and especially Gilbert are after spending 10 seconds trying unsuccessfully to break down the defender 1-on-1. Look at how many of Gilbert's and Vital's shots against Xavier were after 2 or 3 slow crossovers.

 

[jibsey]

Taking bad shots is an issue but you can improve shot selection by selecting the right players to take the shot. If Gilbert is going to stay at 20-30% by Jan end, which I don't expect, take him out of the equation. We've got a lot of shooters who can do better.

 

[Doctor Hoop]

The one thing you didn't touch on here (i think) is when those bad shots are taken.

From my eye, it seems like most are under 10 on the shot clock. That's a byproduct of good defense and bad offense.

I'm not saying Vital/Gilbert don't take bad shots, but usually (NOT always) it seems a product of the shot clock. If anyone has the data on how much time is left on the clock when Vital/Gilbert are shooting, I think it would be insightful.

Some of that comes from what I suspect are bad habits. There has been a tendency to play the first 20 seconds of the shot clock with less urgency, running that high hand-off weave rather than attacking. I think the point that the players might want to take into the game is to be more aggressive toward the hoop earlier in the clock - not necessarily shooting earlier, or forcing a drive, but probing harder to make the defense work harder for 30 seconds, not 10. And if the D doesn't then take it to them.

 

[RichZ]

True that. Ball don't lie.

doesn't *


I assume you were trolling for that response.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Taking bad shots is an issue but you can improve shot selection by selecting the right players to take the shot. If Gilbert is going to stay at 20-30% by Jan end, which I don't expect, take him out of the equation. We've got a lot of shooters who can do better.

Some guys just can't shoot. Kevin Ollie couldn't shoot. Taliek Brown couldn't shoot. Those guys found other ways to be major contributors. Vital can definitely shoot, and I think Gilbert can too if he is wide open.

Like every coach, Hurley has to play the hand he is dealt to maximize points per possession. With the team he has now, Vital and Gilbert taking long contested pull ups is not maximizing his points per possession.

I expect Gilbert's minutes to drop over the course of the season, and I think that is a good thing for UConn and Gilbert. Gilbert at 25-28 mpg has a decent chance of making it through the season. Gilbert at 35 mpg has almost no chance of making it through the season. Fatigue and wear and tear are cumulative, and Gilbert doesn't have a body built to withstand 35 mpg.