Shot Charts - Replacing the 3 | The Boneyard

Shot Charts - Replacing the 3

Does T-Sam have a J?

  • Yes - passes the eye test

    Votes: 3 12.0%
  • No - Fails the eye test

    Votes: 9 36.0%
  • Sample size, moron.

    Votes: 13 52.0%

  • Total voters
    25
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OkaForPrez

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So what started as a debate as to whether or not T-Sam has a jump shot or not (vote in poll - unrelated to rest of post) brought me to a handy shot-chart website I wanted to share with everyone. You can find it here, Upside & Motor.

I'll post some of the key charts from last year below so you can have a look yourself, but it underscores what we already know intuitively. We made up for a lot of deficiencies last year with our 3 point shooting. Our most efficient shooters are gone (Bazz, Deandre and Giff). There is a ton of shooting to make up for here. So where is it going to come from? The Omar chart doesn't instill a ton of confidence and even boat's chart is a bit concerning not just from deep but all over the floor.

The two pressing questions: will we improve enough in rebounding, interior scoring and defense to offset what will certainly be a drop off in shooting?

And, How far exactly will we drop? What can we expect in terms of an uptick for Boat? Omar? What do we expect to see from the "Am's" (T-Sam, D-Ham, Sam-II-am). Is a stretch to think Facey will be putting up a significant number of shots from 3 in the stretch 4 role?
What do you think team 3pt % will be next year and why?

We shot 38% as a team last year, our best year since 2004. Track it over time here.

Shot Charts:

shabazz.png
 

OkaForPrez

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Other relevant stats:

Daniel Hamilton shot 32% from 3 his senior season at Bosco.
Rodney Purvis shot 38% from 3 as a freshman at NC State.
Sam II Am shot 33% in juco.
Omar shot 32% as a freshman, 24% last year
Boat shot 37% from 3 last year.
 
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We've had teams in the past that have either struggled to score from deep (low 3FG%) or have chosen not to (low 3FGA). But those teams all had excellent interior scoring, something we will not be blessed with this year.

We're going to need Boat and Purvis to maintain their high-30's percentages, and hope Hamilton shoots a lot better than he did last year. Otherwise, we're going to get zoned to death.
 

OkaForPrez

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You wouldn't happen to have a chart for 12-13 Bazz, would you?
Nah, not through this site. The guy only captured last year. It might be out there somewhere though.
 
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Great question, great thread.

I'm hoping Boat, Purvis & Hamilton can all shoot high 30s, and that Facey will surprise us with his range as well. If Omar ends up being a reliable corner 3 man on top of it... damn, I think I just talked myself into believing that we're a Final 4 team again.
 
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I don't think we need to be as good a 3 pt team as last year, just good enough to keep defenses honest which I think we should be. If we do, I think we should have and rely more on a strong midrange and drive to the basket game between Purvis, Hamilton, Boat, and even TSam (and hopefully a reborn Omar) who have (or hopefully have) the ability to create their own shots. Other than Boat and Bazz (and sometimes DD), we didn't have many who could create their own shot and/or get to the basket. I think we will stronger this year in that regard.
 

Inyatkin

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Re: "Sam II Am." It's clever and all but I'd like it better if I knew how to pronounce it. Sam-Eye-Eye-Am? Sam-Two-Am?
 

OkaForPrez

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Re: "Sam II Am." It's clever and all but I'd like it better if I knew how to pronounce it. Sam-Eye-Eye-Am? Sam-Two-Am?

I always say it with one I and spell it with II. Always loved that nickname.
 
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Very interesting topic, OK4, and probably the most pressing question this team will have to answer.

This is a team that is going to really struggle in the half-court offensively if things don't break right. Last years offense worked (when it mattered) because of how well Napier and Boatright's skill set complemented the shooting ability of Daniels and Giffey. This year, there seems to be a redundancy in the personnel. Purvis and Boatright are vastly improved as perimeter shooters (I'm speculating a bit on Purvis) from where they were earlier in their career, but I still tend to think they are creators by nature more so than spot up shooters. How they co-exist (or don't) within the structure of the offense will be interesting to watch. Less than ideal spacing can be overcome by smart off-ball cutting. Purvis should be watching how Dwayne Wade evolved as a player during his time with LeBron and implementing some of that into his own game.

I have not seen Daniel Hamilton play outside of a couple glorified scrimmages, but I have heard opinions that range from him being one of the best pure scorers in his class to him being somebody who hunts his own shot. On one hand, we have seen freshman struggle in the past adjusting to the college game. They aren't featured nearly as much as they were in high school, and a lot of them have the tendency to drift and become ineffective spot up shooters. All half-court offenses are better with more movement than less, but with this roster, that is probably going to be especially true.

Second thing on D-Ham: for as valuable as Giffey and Daniels were last season, they were both dreadful passers and shaky ball-handlers. For what we might lose with D-Ham from the three point line, I expect we might gain as much in terms of him being able to catch the ball in the middle of the floor and dribble through tight spaces.

The most glaring void left by the departing veterans is at the power forward position. That statement isn't meant to disparage Facey as much as it is to emphasize how good Daniels was. Coaches at all levels are constantly trying to balance the cost benefit at this position - do I go small and expose myself defensively, or do I risk suffocating my half-court offense with two limited big men? It's generally an either/or proposition, but the versatility Daniels gave us at the four was basically unparalleled. When St. Joe's was running a two big offense in the NCAA Tournament and battering us with it, DeAndre was the guy who stepped up and finally stopped Kanacevic. He was a capable rim protector, a very underrated pick and roll defender, and by the end of the season, as dangerous a pick and pop player as there was in the country. He was phenomenal in March.

Word is that Facey is now hitting threes at a high clip, but I'm skeptical - hitting threes in a real game is obviously a lot different than in other settings. In what little we saw of him last year, he was purely an energy player (albeit a good one) who played no meaningful role in our offensive or defensive schemes. In todays game, employing a big man who can't shoot or score in the post is tricky.

So, with all these questions in mind, it's easy to imagine this offense leaving us frustrated, at least early on. But keep this in mind when people are panicking in December: last years offense was a train wreck - seriously, it was unwatchable - in early March. And that was with a veteran team, the best point guard in the country, and tons of shooting. So to say we should temper our expectations is an understatement.

That all in mind, there are certain things about next years team that I am hopeful will offset some of these concerns:

1. Transition offense - One little known fact is that last years UConn team played at a distinctively slow pace. Among national champions, I believe they were one of the slowest ever. They weren't opposed to running, but for the most part, they beat teams by being more disciplined (major credit to Ollie here).

This season, I'm anticipating a 180. If you aren't familiar with Rodney Purvis's game, know that he's one of the most dangerous open court weapons around. I watched some tape of his freshman year at N.C. State, and his baseline to baseline speed is off the charts. Boatright has long been somebody who has liked to push the pace, even when it wasn't advisable. Brimah gets up and down the floor as well as any center in America. Facey and Samuel both love to run. This team is built for high-octane basketball. The athletes we have here are as good as any in America outside Lexington.

2. Post offense - people may be very surprised how capable Brimah and Nolan are in the paint. They've still got a ways to go, but Brimah especially has the tools to emerge into a legitimate back-to-the-basket threat.

3. Omar Calhoun - as ace mentioned the other day, people have been awfully quick to shovel dirt on his career. It's possible that he's simply never going to be the type of shooter we expected, but if guys like Giffey and Daniels can develop reliable strokes over time, Omar can as well. He just needs to see a couple go in the net.

Overall, this team will be defined by how they defend. If they're a cohesive, aggressive defense predicated on turning people over, they are going to have success. If they are more leisurely defensively, we'll be in a lot of close games with average teams.
 

OkaForPrez

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@champs99and04 Posted the topic fishing for your response. Definitely see us getting up and down in transition this year. Just got really excited for the season to start.
 
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