Orlando Magic: A
The worst thing that ever happened to Napier, as I see it, was
LeBron James tweeting about him during and after UConn's run to the 2014 NCAA championship. Around the league, James' tweets created the impression that Napier's first-round draft stock was the result of hype from his tournament performance rather than being justified by his entire four-year career. (Napier was drafted 24th -- exactly the same spot he ranked in my WARP projections.)
The hit was even worse in Miami, where Napier was seen as James' preferred choice, a troublesome association after James left the Heat to sign with the
Cleveland Cavaliers as a free agent weeks later. If James' endorsement had anything to do with Miami's decision, and even if it didn't, it's easy to see how regret was inevitable when Napier posted an uneven rookie season.
Let's be clear that Napier was OK as a rookie, not terrible. He rated basically right at replacement level by WARP and posted a credible minus-1.3 rating in
ESPN's real plus-minus -- better than
Los Angeles Lakers rookie guard
Jordan Clarkson (minus-2.4), among others. Napier was an older rookie - he turned 24 this month - but point guards tend to develop longer and later than players at other positions. As a result, I project, based on WARP and RPM, that Napier will develop into a two-win player by the end of his rookie contract, making him a strong value at his low salary. While it's tough to see Napier becoming a starter in the league, he could emerge as a solid backup point guard.
In particular, Napier looks like a useful backup to Magic starter
Elfrid Paytonbecause his best skill (3-point shooting) is Payton's worst. Napier shot 36.4 percent from 3-point range as a rookie, a hair behind
Rodney Hood (36.5 percent) for tops among players from the 2014 draft who attempted at least 100 triples. Like veteran
C.J. Watson, signed as a free agent this summer, Napier gives Orlando a different look at the position. Given the low cost, adding Napier makes a lot of sense.