Corrected from earlier post where I grabbed the wrong screenshot from Massey.
I that there are a couple of reasons that UCLA doesn’t get the discussion that they deserve. The first is that people perceive Lauren Betts as fragile. She’s an undeniable force and when playing well makes UCLA pretty much unstoppable. The second thing that seems to show consistently on fan boards (and not just this one) is that Cori Close may not be able to coach in the big game situations well enough to deliver a championship. I don’t think either one of those things are concrete metrics that should keep UCLA from being ranked number one, but it changes the perception of fans. If I were voting on straight up facts, clearly UCLA is number one. If I were voting with a forward thinking “what are teams going to look like at the end of the year”, right now I think that Notre Dame is the team to beat.
Every computer model has bias built into it. Massey has bias towards recent winners. At the beginning of the year, it was far too far skewed to the teams that had won a lot last year and didn’t seem to reflect conference realignment and coaching changes.
Some of the strength of schedule ratings were way off at the beginning of the year and still seem to be suspect. Strength of schedule has to factor into rating because otherwise you reward teams far too much the play cupcakes. The problem with this is that as conference realignment has concentrated a lot of the best teams together (for example OU now being in the SEC), you get a modeling effect that starts introducing bias, simply based on the effect of good teams playing each other. it isn’t as simple as “who did you play“ it’s also who did the teams you played play. I think that when good teams are all bunched together, and they all have to play each other, it starts to cause bias. While I used to think that Massey ratings were really good, lately, I’ve been taking them with a grain of salt.
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