Seeds and Tiebreakers

[Ozone21]

Is there a link to the tiebreaker scenarios? Looks like we will be a 4 or 5 when we beat Memphis on Thursday. Trying to time the ticket market.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

Is there a link to the tiebreaker scenarios? Looks like we will be a 4 or 5 when we beat Memphis on Thursday. Trying to time the ticket market.

I believe the tie-breaker is the relative record against the highest seeded team at the beginning of the tournament. In the most likely scenario, if we are tied record wise with any other team, it'll pit our head to head record against SMU (only remaining game @ Moody vs. Tulsa - I expect SMU to win this game)

If we win out, we are most likely the #4 or #5 seed, which is interchangeable because they play each other in the quarterfinals (2:00 PM on Friday)

The highest seed we can achieve is the 3 seed, but only if the following scenario occurs:

UConn wins out and
1) Cincy drops both their remaining games @Tulsa and home against Memphis (UConn 12-6, Cincy 11-7) (Low probability)
or
2) Cincy loses to Tulsa, and Tulsa beats SMU (Tulsa would finish in 1st, and the head to head tiebreaker between Cincy and UConn would be the record against Tulsa (Cincy 0-1, UConn 1-1 (Adv UConn)) (Low probability)

I could be wrong, but I believe that this is the scenario that exists

 

[HuskyBballFan]

http://theamerican.org/documents/2015/2/18/TheAmerican-mbbTiebreakers.pdf

There are a million moving parts, but as far as I can tell the most likely scenario by far is that we're in the 4-5 game against Temple.

If we're in any sort of tie with Cincy (including a 3-way tie with Temple), they will get the 3 seed. Head-to-head is a wash, even if you include Temple in a "mini-conference." So then it moves to best record against the top of the standings. If SMU is at the top, advantage Cincy since they beat SMU twice. If Tulsa is at the top, they actually wouldn't give us the edge over Cincy even if we are 1-1 and they are 0-1, because they didn't have the chance to play them twice. So then it moves down to SMU, and Cincy wins.

So I believe there are only 3 scenarios where we would avoid SMU until the finals:
1) We win out, Cincy loses out, and SMU beats Tulsa.
2) We finish 4th or 5th and Tulsa beats SMU.
3) We lose out (6 seed) and SMU beats Tulsa.

I don't think any of those are particularly likely. I guess we should really root for Tulsa to beat SMU in Moody.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

http://theamerican.org/documents/2015/2/18/TheAmerican-mbbTiebreakers.pdf

There are a million moving parts, but as far as I can tell the most likely scenario by far is that we're in the 4-5 game against Temple.

If we're in any sort of tie with Cincy (including a 3-way tie with Temple), they will get the 3 seed. Head-to-head is a wash, even if you include Temple in a "mini-conference." So then it moves to best record against the top of the standings. If SMU is at the top, advantage Cincy since they beat SMU twice. If Tulsa is at the top, they actually wouldn't give us the edge over Cincy even if we are 1-1 and they are 0-1, because they didn't have the chance to play them twice. So then it moves down to SMU, and Cincy wins.

So I believe there are only 3 scenarios where we would avoid SMU until the finals:
1) We win out, Cincy loses out, and SMU beats Tulsa.
2) We finish 4th or 5th and Tulsa beats SMU.
3) We lose out (6 seed) and SMU beats Tulsa.

I don't think any of those are particularly likely. I guess we should really root for Tulsa to beat SMU in Moody.

Ah it makes sense not to weigh the Tulsa head to head record because we played them twice and Cincy didn't. By all accounts, it looks like we are in the 4-5 game unless Cincy loses out and we win out

 

[tcf15]

 

[CTBasketball]

The conference is looking good with those 28 views.