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Message: [QUOTE="bballnut90, post: 2991377, member: 2117"] I think this is pretty well done. One thing I'll note is that this year feels more unpredictable than most since no one has really emerged as a consistently strong team. Almost all of teams above have almost lost to a pretty bad team. UCONN and ND are best positioned for a #1 seed. ND's resume is the strongest of anyone right now, and I think they're a safe bet for a #1 provided they drop only 1-2 games the rest of the year. UCONN is safe *if* they beat Louisville. Walz has never found a way to give Geno a competitive game so I think odds are strong that UCONN wins that one. Same with South Carolina. Besides that, the AAC is bad so UCONN should roll. Playing a cupcake schedule the last couple of the months may allow the Huskies to develop better chemistry and should help players like ONO and Coombs get more confidence. I think the last 2 top seeds likely go to 2 of Mississippi State, the PAC 12 champion, Louisville or Baylor. Right now Baylor and Stanford look best positioned to get these spots. Baylor is streaky but the Big 12 is weak this year. If they finish the year with 1 loss and have a win over UCONN on their resume, they definitely a 1 seed. PAC-12 should be a 3 team race with Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford. Stanford has an inside track because they only play the Oregon schools once, and play both at home. Oregon/OSU have a brutal stretch where they face the Bay Area schools and play their head to head games all within a couple of weeks. If Stanford can get out of the PAC/tournament with 2-3 losses, I think they'll likely be positioned well for a #1. Mississippi State is also positioned well, having just 1 loss and playing in a weak SEC conference. They've already beat Kentucky and play Tennessee and South Carolina at home. They look vulnerable though, so I'll be surprised if they run the table or have just 1 loss. Even if they run the table, they'll still lack a big time win over a top 10 team. They'd be a nightmare opponent if they end up as a 2 seed. I'd least want to face Mississippi State over any other likely #2 seed. Louisville fought hard last night but will need other teams to have bad losses, or they'll need to beat UCONN or ND to nab a 1. They don't have any big time wins. Teams that have big potential to free fall include NC State, Tennessee, Texas and Maryland. NC State is still somewhat of an unknown IMO....they've only played (and beat) Michigan State and several cupcakes. The meat of their schedule comes in Feb when they play @FSU, @Syracuse, vs. ND, [USER=2325]@Louisville[/USER] and vs. Miami. Then they have the ACC tournament. I wouldn't be shocked if they enter the FSU game 22-0 and then enter the NCAA tournament with a 25-6 record, going 3-6 over their last 6 games. Realistically I think they'll be a 3, but their "stretch of death" could push them down to a 4 or even a 5 depending on how the season pans out. Tennessee looks like a hot mess. I expect them to trend downward as their SOS improves and they play more road games and play better opponents. Texas is also a hot mess but I think they're safe for a top 4 seed as long as they don't lose more than 4 games in conference play. Maryland I'm guessing will drop at least 1-2 games before the tournament. That'd put them at a 3 or 4 IMO. Maryland never gets love from the committee because they don't play good teams. I would LOVE to see some strong mid majors get 3 seeds this year. Marquette is fantastic, so is Gonzaga. Both deserve to host if they take care of their weaker conferences. I also wouldn't count out traditionally strong programs like South Carolina, Florida State, or Kentucky from making a run this year. South Carolina is on a win streak after their beatdown vs. Baylor...if they finish 2nd in the SEC, my guess is they'll get a 3 or 4 seed. They also usually play well against Mississippi State so that will be a big game to watch. Florida State isn't as good as previous years but they're still solid, and they're usually good for upsetting a higher ranked team (or 2) as the season unfolds. Then you have Kentucky who could work their way up to a 3 seed with a good SEC season. By the end of the season my guess is that the seeds will be: [FONT=courier new]NY: UConn - Lville - Marq - SCar [COLOR=rgb(255, 255, 255)].[/COLOR] NC: Stan - MsSt - NCSt - Cuse IL: [COLOR=rgb(44, 130, 201)]NDame[/COLOR] - OrSt[COLOR=rgb(226, 80, 65)] [/COLOR]- [COLOR=rgb(65, 168, 95)]Mryd[/COLOR] - Texas OR: Baylor - [COLOR=rgb(251, 160, 38)]Oreg[/COLOR] - Gonz - [COLOR=rgb(226, 80, 65)]Ky[/COLOR][/FONT] [/QUOTE]

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