Seeding 1/11

vowelguy

Boneyard contrarian since 1998
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#1
My current thinking:

NY: UConn - Stan - Syra - Tex .|| RU
NC: Baylr - NCSt - OrSt - Tenn || FSU
IL: NDame - MsSt - Mryd - Marq || IaSt
OR: Lvlle - Oreg - Gonz - Ky ..|| AzSt
 

Fightin Choke

Golden Dome Fan
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#2
My current thinking:

NY: UConn - Stan - Syra - Tex .|| RU
NC: Baylr - NCSt - OrSt - Tenn || FSU
IL: NDame - MsSt - Mryd - Marq || IaSt
OR: Lvlle - Oreg - Gonz - Ky ..|| AzSt
I wonder if Maryland can keep its 3-seed. The B1G seems to have a bunch of teams that may trip up Maryland but may not provide a significant boost to its resume. Then again, if Georgia plays like they did last night against Mississippi St., that would help the Terps' seeding.
 
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#3
vowelguy, that looks solid as of today. I have no doubt that 5-16 will change considerably by end of regular season.
 

vowelguy

Boneyard contrarian since 1998
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#8
I wouldn't get your hopes up. A team needs a winning record to get into the WNIT.
#ByeCoachP
Dunno,
ND, Syr, FSU are losses but
2x UNC, Wake + UVa, VaTech, Clem, Pitt, BC, Mia

Can they go 7-3 against that 2nd row? If so, they're 15-13.
 
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#9
Dunno,
ND, Syr, FSU are losses but
2x UNC, Wake + UVa, VaTech, Clem, Pitt, BC, Mia

Can they go 7-3 against that 2nd row? If so, they're 15-13.
They can also go 6-4 against the 2nd row as long as they win their first game in the ACC tournament (which will be against a weak team).

Wake and Pitt should be wins. They should at least split with UNC and Uva. That would be 5 wins right there. Then they'd only need to win 2 of BC, Clem, VaTech, Mia to clinch a .500+ record. Of those 4 games, only BC is on the road.

Another interesting wrinkle in this scenario is whether Duke and SC make up their canceled OOC game.
 
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#10
My current thinking:

NY: UConn - Stan - Syra - Tex .|| RU
NC: Baylr - NCSt - OrSt - Tenn || FSU
IL: NDame - MsSt - Mryd - Marq || IaSt
OR: Lvlle - Oreg - Gonz - Ky ..|| AzSt
Same bracket Baylor had last year, except insert Lvlle in place of NCST.
 

bballnut90

LV Adherent. Topic Crafter
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#11
My current thinking:

NY: UConn - Stan - Syra - Tex .|| RU
NC: Baylr - NCSt - OrSt - Tenn || FSU
IL: NDame - MsSt - Mryd - Marq || IaSt
OR: Lvlle - Oreg - Gonz - Ky ..|| AzSt
I think this is pretty well done. One thing I'll note is that this year feels more unpredictable than most since no one has really emerged as a consistently strong team. Almost all of teams above have almost lost to a pretty bad team.

UCONN and ND are best positioned for a #1 seed. ND's resume is the strongest of anyone right now, and I think they're a safe bet for a #1 provided they drop only 1-2 games the rest of the year.

UCONN is safe *if* they beat Louisville. Walz has never found a way to give Geno a competitive game so I think odds are strong that UCONN wins that one. Same with South Carolina. Besides that, the AAC is bad so UCONN should roll. Playing a cupcake schedule the last couple of the months may allow the Huskies to develop better chemistry and should help players like ONO and Coombs get more confidence.

I think the last 2 top seeds likely go to 2 of Mississippi State, the PAC 12 champion, Louisville or Baylor. Right now Baylor and Stanford look best positioned to get these spots. Baylor is streaky but the Big 12 is weak this year. If they finish the year with 1 loss and have a win over UCONN on their resume, they definitely a 1 seed.

PAC-12 should be a 3 team race with Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford. Stanford has an inside track because they only play the Oregon schools once, and play both at home. Oregon/OSU have a brutal stretch where they face the Bay Area schools and play their head to head games all within a couple of weeks. If Stanford can get out of the PAC/tournament with 2-3 losses, I think they'll likely be positioned well for a #1.

Mississippi State is also positioned well, having just 1 loss and playing in a weak SEC conference. They've already beat Kentucky and play Tennessee and South Carolina at home. They look vulnerable though, so I'll be surprised if they run the table or have just 1 loss. Even if they run the table, they'll still lack a big time win over a top 10 team. They'd be a nightmare opponent if they end up as a 2 seed. I'd least want to face Mississippi State over any other likely #2 seed.

Louisville fought hard last night but will need other teams to have bad losses, or they'll need to beat UCONN or ND to nab a 1. They don't have any big time wins.


Teams that have big potential to free fall include NC State, Tennessee, Texas and Maryland. NC State is still somewhat of an unknown IMO....they've only played (and beat) Michigan State and several cupcakes. The meat of their schedule comes in Feb when they play @FSU, @Syracuse, vs. ND, @Louisville and vs. Miami. Then they have the ACC tournament. I wouldn't be shocked if they enter the FSU game 22-0 and then enter the NCAA tournament with a 25-6 record, going 3-6 over their last 6 games. Realistically I think they'll be a 3, but their "stretch of death" could push them down to a 4 or even a 5 depending on how the season pans out.

Tennessee looks like a hot mess. I expect them to trend downward as their SOS improves and they play more road games and play better opponents.

Texas is also a hot mess but I think they're safe for a top 4 seed as long as they don't lose more than 4 games in conference play.

Maryland I'm guessing will drop at least 1-2 games before the tournament. That'd put them at a 3 or 4 IMO. Maryland never gets love from the committee because they don't play good teams.


I would LOVE to see some strong mid majors get 3 seeds this year. Marquette is fantastic, so is Gonzaga. Both deserve to host if they take care of their weaker conferences. I also wouldn't count out traditionally strong programs like South Carolina, Florida State, or Kentucky from making a run this year. South Carolina is on a win streak after their beatdown vs. Baylor...if they finish 2nd in the SEC, my guess is they'll get a 3 or 4 seed. They also usually play well against Mississippi State so that will be a big game to watch. Florida State isn't as good as previous years but they're still solid, and they're usually good for upsetting a higher ranked team (or 2) as the season unfolds. Then you have Kentucky who could work their way up to a 3 seed with a good SEC season. By the end of the season my guess is that the seeds will be:

NY: UConn - Lville - Marq - SCar .
NC: Stan - MsSt - NCSt - Cuse
IL: NDame - OrSt - Mryd - Texas
OR: Baylor - Oreg - Gonz - Ky
 

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