Secret Scrimmage Scores

[KingAG]

The difference in one vs the other is the coach is playing to win and to please the computers. You’ll see more authenticity in rotations and sets, and refs not calling a game to avoid injuries. These exhibition games are basically pickup.

Nothing you’re going to see against UNH will be remotely as useful as what you saw against Michigan St. The End.

It’s why Hurley is playing the games. These games prepare them for BYU WAY more than the cupcakes.

 

[auror]

Got it here. We have Disney+ and that comes with ESPN+ so I just sign in through our TV provider.

Who's out for Kentucky? I still can't believe they spent $22 million on this roster. Who's going to have a worse return on their team investment, the Mets or Kentucky?

Lowe, Aberdeen, and Quaintance for potential starters. Aberdeen played against Purdue, the other 2 have been out.

Chandler played PG for Kentucky and played poorly. Kentucky missed a ton of shots and FTs, Mack made a bunch of tough floaters for Georgetown.

 

[HW611]

The difference in one vs the other is the coach is playing to win and to please the computers. You’ll see more authenticity in rotations and sets, and refs not calling a game to avoid injuries. These exhibition games are basically pickup.

God I hope coaches don’t play to please a computer

 

[Jay-Bone]

I wouldn't not take anything away from these games. For instance, with the lines that are already out, I'm going to hit Murray St and Toledo a little bit harder because they both beat Xavier. Even if Xavier is trash. There is info to glean here. A little info is better than none.

In fact, the algos that set the lines probably aren't even considering these games. So there might actually be an edge here.

 

[auror]

I wouldn't not take anything away from these games. For instance, with the lines that are already out, I'm going to hit Murray St and Toledo a little bit harder because they both beat Xavier. Even if Xavier is trash. There is info to glean here. A little info is better than none.

In fact, the algos that set the lines probably aren't even considering these games. So there might actually be an edge here.

If the algos aren't considering those games, then perhaps that should tell you something about their predictive value.

The only way you can take anything from them is if you know the injury status/minutes played of the starters and whether it's similar to what will be the normal rotation.

Like Mich St didn't hold anyone out for precaution and their starters played 33, 32, 24, 22, 12. So they played their bench a little more than usual, but not that much. You can probably take some things from that game from their point of view.

So what you can take for them is that Kur Teng sucks and they're actively trying to figure out their 2G spot. The bigs can rebound, but the defense guarding mobile 4s is suspect. The help defense isn't good enough considering you're playing 2 bigs.

 

[Jay-Bone]

If the algos aren't considering those games, then perhaps that should tell you something about their predictive value.

The only way you can take anything from them is if you know the injury status/minutes played of the starters and whether it's similar to what will be the normal rotation.

Like Mich St didn't hold anyone out for precaution and their starters played 33, 32, 24, 22, 12. So they played their bench a little more than usual, but not that much. You can probably take some things from that game from their point of view.

So what you can take for them is that Kur Teng sucks and they're actively trying to figure out their 2G spot. The bigs can rebound, but the defense guarding mobile 4s is suspect. The help defense isn't good enough considering you're playing 2 bigs.

Its a lot easier to turn the algos on for the regular season then ask them to interpret how a scrimmage was played based on the factors you mention. However, if one realizes that Toledo went on the road to beat a pseudo-major, albeit a scrimmage, they might easily beat South Alabama at home by 3 of whom they are 15 spots ahead in Kenpom. I'm not saying I'll bet the farm on it, just will increase my bet opposed to if I hadn't known that outcome.

A lot of the difficulty of betting to start the season is having no sample size. Every team can be a wild card.

Not everything has to be a definitive either/or. To beat the system, one has to find an edge where they can.

(This is not gambling advice)

 

[Jay-Bone]

Murray St is giving 4 to Omaha at a neutral location and are 54 spots ahead on Kenpom. My bet feels a little warmer and a little fuzzier knowing they beat Xavier in a scrimmage.

(This is not gambling advice)

 

[Jay-Bone]

I also like Winthrop at home giving 5 to Queens. 68 spots ahead in Kenpom. Would love it if I knew they beat Xavier in a scrimmage, lol.

(This is not gambling advice)

 

[Jay-Bone]

If the algos aren't considering those games, then perhaps that should tell you something about their predictive value.

The only way you can take anything from them is if you know the injury status/minutes played of the starters and whether it's similar to what will be the normal rotation.

Like Mich St didn't hold anyone out for precaution and their starters played 33, 32, 24, 22, 12. So they played their bench a little more than usual, but not that much. You can probably take some things from that game from their point of view.

So what you can take for them is that Kur Teng sucks and they're actively trying to figure out their 2G spot. The bigs can rebound, but the defense guarding mobile 4s is suspect. The help defense isn't good enough considering you're playing 2 bigs.

Not to beat a dead horse, but another example.

In years past I might do well betting against heavy freshman laden teams to start the season even though they have high rankings. Thanks to Ruff Ruff's obsession, I'm giving more credence to teams like Duke & Kansas right out the gate. Darryn Peterson might flop against UNC, but I'm not betting against it even on the road.

 

[auror]

Murray St is giving 4 to Omaha at a neutral location and are 54 spots ahead on Kenpom. My bet feels a little warmer and a little fuzzier knowing they beat Xavier in a scrimmage.

(This is not gambling advice)

I will say, I do think Xavier is extremely booty this season. They're ranked 11th in the Big East in EvanMiya's roster rank. Most of their predictive metrics ranking them in the 60s or thereabouts are baking in substantial program historical adjustment, but I think that has failed them in the roster construction of this team. I could see them finishing outside the top 100. And at the same time, they have essentially 0 returning minutes, which similar to your betting against freshmen-heavy teams early principle, means they're probably even worse than you'd expect in the exhibitions.

Long story short, I wouldn't be upgrading Murray or Toledo at all, but downgrading Xavier heavily.

 

[Jay-Bone]

Long story short, I wouldn't be upgrading Murray or Toledo at all, but downgrading Xavier heavily.

Fair enough. I don't disagree in regards to Xavier. For the other two, I think the scrimmage helps me establish them as not being teams that will be downgraded 30 spots as the season unfolds. They are ready to win and likely currently healthy. But I could be way off. I'm a volume better, as I bet many games that will lessen the chance of my bottom line getting goosed by a wild card. If you told me Winthrop lost a scrimmage to Pace, I'd walk away from that game.