Sums it up perfectly.
My guesses, in order of minutes-per-game:
The easier to guess:
- Ball: Will mostly soak up Alleyne's minutes (18 mpg) and possibly play more. I picture Ball as the backup 2 for Spencer and will play quite a bit alongside Spencer whenever Spencer plays the 3 when Castle is on the bench.
- Diarra: Similar role to last season (13 mpg). Almost all minutes will be backing up Newton. Maybe we see Diarra and Newton share the floor, but I think it's doubtful.
- Johnson: Similar role to Clingan last season (13 mpg). I'd expect Clingan to get close to Sanogo's 27 mpg last season, with Johnson playing all other minutes at the 5. I'm trying to imagine a "two big" lineup with Johnson at the 4, but I don't think it's happening.
- Singare: The Richie Springs Role. Maybe some garbage time, but this will be a bench riding, development season for Singare. I think he only plays meaningful minutes if there's an injury
The Much Harder to Guess
- Stewart: I love his versatility long-term. Mature offensive weapon a la Karaban, but I think he will need time to grow defensively. My best guess is that he soaks up Karaban's backup 4 minutes, but it'll be curious to see how Stewart can defend Big East PFs, even though that position is weaker w/ Prosper, Kaluma, Whitmore, Jones out, but Hopkins/Freemantle still loom.
- Ross: I love his upside as a deadly floor spacer with underrated athleticism, however, I see Castle and Spencer playing almost every minute at the 3. Doubt we'll see Ross much in Big East play.
- Roumoglou: Is he just a great practice piece or does he have potential in the rotation? He's grown to 6'8 215, shot 38% from three in the FIBA U19 back in the Summer of 2022.
When all is said and done, the rotation won't be more than 9, meaning my guess of pieces six-through-nine are Ball, Johnson, Diarra, Stewart, respectively.
This seems like a good discussion point.
Johnson has by far the most straight forward path towards minutes as the front runner for first big off the bench and appears to be able to play minutes at the 4 and the 5. He should be getting 20 minutes every game and he will have games where he's playing 30 minutes.
Diarra should be one of the first two guards off the bench and 10-12 mpg is there for him. He's a bulldog on defense and can wreck opponent's offensive flow. He's also a high energy guy for UConn who can jump start a sluggish team. His outside shooting, decision making while penetrating, and FT shooting will determine if he's a 6-8 mpg player or a 12-15 mpg player.
Ball appears physically ready and if he can shoot, he's getting 10-12 mpg.
Seems like Stewart, Ross and Roumoglou are in a 3 for 1 situation between the 3 and 4 spot. There's just not a lot of minutes available if Karaban and Castle are playing well. Ideally one of those three definitively separates and solidifies the bench rotation.
What do we all know? Based on injuries, increase level of competition and ability to fit in with the starters, rotations always work themselves out. I expect 9-10 players playing in Nov-Jan. By mid-Feb it will be 8 players in the rotation with 9 and 10 being spot minutes only.