Scouting St. John's

[Hey Adrien!]

Onto the next game.

Schedule Analysis (9-4)

• Best OOC wins: Monmouth, Colgate, Fordham and Saint Peter’s
• OOC loses: Kansas, Indiana, Pittsburgh
• Overall 339th hardest strength of schedule

Roster Report:

• Good size. 94% of their lineups include two 6’8+ players w/ Champagnie playing the three 20% of the time.
• 11 players in the rotation. Rafael Pinzon was out for two games w/ Covid protocol while Tareq Coburn was out two games for back issues. Both could be back Wednesday.

Offense: 71th KenPom efficiency

• 82.4 ppg
• Nearly half of production between Champagnie (20.7p) and Alexander (15.8p)
• Offense highly dependent on transition.
• 2nd fastest offensive tempo in nation w/ average offensive possession lasting 14.5 seconds
• Top-80 in both 2p% and 3p%
• 19th highest A/FGM ratio. Alexander and Addae-Wusu w/ 4+ assists while Smith/Mathis/Champagnie all ~2 assists
• They are not reliant on three-point shooting. 33.8% of FGAs are three-pointers, which is ranked 275th
• Good offensive rebounding team, 85th best offensive rebounding rate

Defense: 109th KenPom efficiency

• "40 Minutes of Hell". UConn has already played against two top-8 turnover-heavy teams (VCU and West Virginia), so the team is plenty seasoned for the pressure St. John's will bring.
• Posh Alexander was last year’s Big East co-DPOY. 2.4 steals/game this year. Expect him to hound Cole
• Dylan Addae-Wusu is their physical help defender/trapper. Averages 1.5 steals/game.
• In similar Mike Anderson fashion, their defense hangs its hat on causing turnovers. Their block and steal rate is both top-20 in the nation.
• Three defenders average 1.2+ blocks/game: Soriano (1.9), Champagnie (1.5), Nyiwe (1.2)
• 67th in opponent 2p%
• But only 245th in opponent 3p% (34.7%).
• Awful defensive rebounding (299th best rate)
• Teams are able to get to the line against them (31.7% FTA/FGA rate, 221st lowest in nation)

Champagnie and Posh are excellent players, but UConn is by far the better team. Perfect game find open shots from their overly aggressive D and win by a large margin.

 

[awfuldan]

Cole is gonna be key in handling the pressure for us, per usual. Would love to see a good floor game from Andre Jackson too. He has struggled with turnovers at times, but he could be big for us in a fast-paced open-floor game.

I want to see a big game from Sanogo. Last year he was killing St. John's before he got benched in one of Hurley's most criticized moves of the season. IIRC he got benched because St. John's was playing Champgagnie at the 5, which it sounds like they aren't doing as much this year. Regardless, he should be in there a ton Wednesday.

We haven't played in Gampel in over a month. Seems like we always shoot better there, and we are coming off a really good offensive performance at Seton Hall. Guys should be fired up to get a win. Hoping it's a fun one. We need revenge for last year.

 

[Get a Job]

Onto the next game.

Schedule Analysis (9-4)

• Best OOC wins: Monmouth, Colgate, Fordham and Saint Peter’s
• OOC loses: Kansas, Indiana, Pittsburgh
• Overall 339th hardest strength of schedule

Roster Report:

• Good size. 94% of their lineups include two 6’8+ players w/ Champagnie playing the three 20% of the time.
• 11 players in the rotation. Rafael Pinzon was out for two games w/ Covid protocol while Tareq Coburn was out two games for back issues. Both could be back Wednesday.

View attachment 72359

Offense: 71th KenPom efficiency

• 82.4 ppg
• Nearly half of production between Champagnie (20.7p) and Alexander (15.8p)
• Offense highly dependent on transition.
• 2nd fastest offensive tempo in nation w/ average offensive possession lasting 14.5 seconds
• Top-80 in both 2p% and 3p%
• 19th highest A/FGM ratio. Alexander and Addae-Wusu w/ 4+ assists while Smith/Mathis/Champagnie all ~2 assists
• They are not reliant on three-point shooting. 33.8% of FGAs are three-pointers, which is ranked 275th
• Good offensive rebounding team, 85th best offensive rebounding rate

Defense: 109th KenPom efficiency

• "40 Minutes of Hell". UConn has already played against two top-8 turnover-heavy teams (VCU and West Virginia), so the team is plenty seasoned for the pressure St. John's will bring.
• Posh Alexander was last year’s Big East co-DPOY. 2.4 steals/game this year. Expect him to hound Cole
• Dylan Addae-Wusu is their physical help defender/trapper. Averages 1.5 steals/game.
• In similar Mike Anderson fashion, their defense hangs its hat on causing turnovers. Their block and steal rate is both top-20 in the nation.
• Three defenders average 1.2+ blocks/game: Soriano (1.9), Champagnie (1.5), Nyiwe (1.2)
• 67th in opponent 2p%
• But only 245th in opponent 3p% (34.7%).
• Awful defensive rebounding (299th best rate)
• Teams are able to get to the line against them (31.7% FTA/FGA rate, 221st lowest in nation)

Champagnie and Posh are excellent players, but UConn is by far the better team. Perfect game find open shots from their overly aggressive D and win by a large margin.

Fantastic info as always. Might I suggest adding current NET and/or KenPom ranking to the top line for these posts?

 

[kansashusky]

Hopefully we can keep Adama on the floor this year.

 

[ConnEd]

Who gets the assignment on Champagnie? He's probably too strong and big for AJax. But he's probably too mobile for Akok/Whaley. Occasionally, JC would let an opponent's big scorer "get his" and just try to shut down everyone else. Maybe that's the way to go here?

 

[navery12]

Who gets the assignment on Champagnie? He's probably too strong and big for AJax. But he's probably too mobile for Akok/Whaley. Occasionally, JC would let an opponent's big scorer "get his" and just try to shut down everyone else. Maybe that's the way to go here?

Probably a combo of Whaley and Martin depending on if he's playing the 3 or 4. I'm not too worried about him, we should be able to keep his scoring within reason

 

[Edward Sargent]

Keep Posh from going all Richmond on us and we’ll be fine

 

[CardiacAndre7]

If Cole struggled to keep Aiken in front of him, Posh is gonna be a nightmare. If(GIANT IF) we can limit our turnovers it should be a win, but we turned it over a ton against Seton Hall who doesn’t pressure nearly as much. Could be rough

 

[mauconnfan]

Must win?

Pretty damn close.

 

[Ratso]

never count out Mike Anderson

 

[tykurez]

Hate these games because on paper UConn should win but Champagnie is a problem and historically we let one guy go wild on us.

 

[Edward Sargent]

worry more about Posh going off

 

[mauconnfan]

Hate these games because on paper UConn should win but Champagnie is a problem and historically we let one guy go wild on us.

I’m not going to look it up but I believe Champagnie was kept in check in last years game by our defense but we couldn’t stop a number of others.

 

[Edward Sargent]

Exactly my point

 

[Ratso]

uconn wins. a well rested pissed off team @ home?

 

[CTBasketball]

You just never know what UConn team is going to take the floor.

Projection: TBA - TBA

 

[Hey Adrien!]

It just occurred to me that both teams have been 1-2 in their last three.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[auror]

If Cole struggled to keep Aiken in front of him, Posh is gonna be a nightmare. If(GIANT IF) we can limit our turnovers it should be a win, but we turned it over a ton against Seton Hall who doesn’t pressure nearly as much. Could be rough

Totally different players, though. Aiken is a jitterbug who can shoot. Posh is a low center of gravity leverage guy who can't really shoot.

Cole is strong enough to deal with Posh on defense. Has to not give him free points on steals though.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

I bet Rafael Pinzon goes for a career high and hits 5+ threes

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Posh and Champagnie are going to get their points (36.5 combined ppg represents 44% of their total scoring).

The key is making sure their secondary scorers (Addae-Wusu, Mathis, Smith, etc) are under wraps.

It's like the Seton Hall game: we didn't lose because leading scorer Jared Rhoden scored close to his season average. We lost because Kadary Richmond had a career game and Bryce Aiken tied his season high.

On the flip side, I expect Posh to control Cole's game and I expect Addae-Wusu to be on our other best non-scoring big. Soriano is a good defensive big too. However, it's the fourth or fifth options on the floor that can have big games, but it Jackson, Hawkins, Akok, Whaley, etc...

 

[karstenkibbe]

I’m not as confident as others are about tonight’s matchup. I watched SJU-DePaul last week. I know it’s DePaul, but St. John’s offense looked really good to me, even in the half court set. Addae-Wusu had 17/8 in that game and 20/7/5 over the weekend vs PC. If anyone is only concerned about Champagnie and Posh, I would say you are underestimating Wusu’s and Wheeler’s offensive abilities. I think this will come down to the wire, which should worry all of us.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Totally different players, though. Aiken is a jitterbug who can shoot. Posh is a low center of gravity leverage guy who can't really shoot.

Cole is strong enough to deal with Posh on defense. Has to not give him free points on steals though.

Posh is quicker, stronger and a better driver. Cole has struggled with quick guards, and struggled against Posh last season. Our biggest fault on defense in my opinion is our inability to keep drivers in front of us. So that’s why i’m a but worried about this game, they have a lot of guys that attack the basket.

 

[gtcam]

Mathis is someone who could be very troublesome for UConn - he is built like a tank and he physically can punish opposing guards (though he is listed as a wing, he really is a SG). The combo of him and Posh isn't good for UConn. UConn definitely holds an advantage with their bigs but St Johns will draw them out and thats where Sanogo gets into foul trouble. Mike Anderson is a very good game coach and loves to switch things up No way, unless Champgagnie has a horrid shooting night or foul trouble will the 11.5 line hold up for UConn
Just win UConn

 

[auror]

Posh is quicker, stronger and a better driver. Cole has struggled with quick guards, and struggled against Posh last season. Our biggest fault on defense in my opinion is our inability to keep drivers in front of us. So that’s why i’m a but worried about this game, they have a lot of guys that attack the basket.

He might be a little quicker than Cole, but he's not that quick in general. He's a running back more than a wide receiver, if that makes sense (and so is Cole). He has first step burst vs. lateral agility. He gets steals from getting under people's handle, playing ultra aggressively / gambling, being strong, and having good anticipation, not from being ultra quick.

It's true he played well against us last year, but I think we'll be better prepared for him this year. His straight line driving took us by surprise a bit last year.