Scouting Butler

[Hey Adrien!]

A two-for-one preview

Butler: 9-7 overall, 2-3 in Big East, #126 KenPom overall

Schedule analysis:

• Butler played an impressive OOC w/ loses to Purdue, Houston, Michigan State and Texas A&M. Their best OOC win was in OT over Oklahoma but their second best win would be a 70-59 win over #184 Troy. All other games were against 330+ KenPom teams or non-D1 opponents.
• Big East wins over Georgetown and DePaul. Losses to Nova, Seton Hall and Xavier
• Overall, Butler has played the 12th toughest schedule in the nation.

Roster Report:

• Thirteen players who've played 10+ minutes in at least one game.
• They had a mix of old and new.
  • Six players in their rotation are either seniors or grads.
• Not a ton of size. Their small lineups would have three guys between 6'2-6'3 while their biggest lineups would have a 6'6 at the three spot.
• Their depth has recently been hit with an injuries/illness.
  • Bo Hodges, averaged 12.7p, 5.8r, 2.5a, 1.4s, 0.8b in 29.9 mpg at ETSU, has now played two games after returning from a knee injury. In total, just 11 games at Butler between this season and last.
  • Ty Groce, averaged 15.2p, 6.9r, 1.3s, 2.0a, 0.8b, 34 3p% in 33 mpg at Eastern Michigan, missed the 1/7 Xavier game and the 1/4 Hall game and since then has only played a total of 14 minutes in two games.
  • Freshman forward DJ Hughes has missed the last four games due to Covid protocols. Should be eligible to return on Tuesday.
  • Myles Tate, 6.7 ppg last year in his freshman year, tore his ACL in March. He played two games in December, missed four games and then returned yesterday against Villanova (4 mpg)

Offense: 168th in KenPom efficiency

• They will try to slow us down. 344th in offensive efficiency.
• No "one guy" on offense. Five players average between 8.6-10.5 ppg
• They shoot a ton of threes (33th highest 3PA/FGA ratio in nation), but stink at shooting threes (30.6 3p% is 287th best rate nationally). What's even weirder is that their three minutes leaders in backcourt are some of their worst three point shooters. Between Harris/Thompson/Taylor they shoot 29% from three.
• None of metrics that make up KenPom's offensive efficiency rating rank Butler in the top-180, which is pretty rare. This includes turnover %, offensive rebounding rate, FTA/FGA ratio, 2p%, not a single aspect of their offense is higher than 187th nationally. So overall, a pretty putrid offense.

Defense: 85th in KenPom efficiency

• Aaron Thompson is their best individual defender. 1.6 steals/game. He's not afraid to get into people's grill: I recall him being a pain-in-the-butt and an agitator last year.
• Bryce Nze is their best defensive forward averaging 1 steal and 0.8 blocks/game
• Bo Hodges was a good defender at ETSU, so since he's back from injury, he'll probably guard our best 2 guard/wing
• Outside of these three, no other players average over a steal or block/game.
• Their strongest defensive stat is their non-steal/block TO% rate is 22nd in the nation
• 97th nationally in defensive rebounding rate
• 134th nationally in defensive turnover rate
• They try to slow down opponents: 267th "fastest" defensive rate.
• No other defensive metrics are better than 150th nationally.
• Their most egregious defensive metric is their 271st opponent 2p% (52%). Pound it inside!

Butler might not be the "worst" team we play in the next two weeks, but they are the team I feel like we should easily beat. I hate using this phrase, but both games are "must wins" as we have the talent and athleticism to dominate.

 

[mauconnfan]

Nova gave them a lesson yesterday. By no means should we expect that they are butt hurt and better than that for sure. Nonetheless if we don’t win the next 2 it’s going to be a long season it is that simple.

 

[Huskybass]

Thanks for the great summary. Sanogo ought to do well. Pound it inside!

 

[HuskyHawk]

Great summary @Hey Adrien! I am concerned that they play small and shoot lots of 3s. It’s the perfect scenario for us to go big and dominate the paint, so Hurley will go small to prevent the 3s Butler misses and give them layups instead. This will be a test for him to see if he can resist that temptation, especially if they make a few early.

I expect Jackson to have a big game. Don’t know why.

 

[auror]

We match up with them extremely well on paper and we handled them twice last year because of it. Just have to avoid the hot 3-point shooting night.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Great summary @Hey Adrien! I am concerned that they play small and shoot lots of 3s. It’s the perfect scenario for us to go big and dominate the paint, so Hurley will go small to prevent the 3s Butler misses and give them layups instead.

I disagree. Butler isn't a big team, but they play super slowly, thus negating the "need" to play small.

Jair Bolden is their only small threat (6'3 220) who shoots threes well. When he's on the court, he's mostly the three guard, so I'd be totally confident having Andre Jackson guarding Bolden while Cole and Martin can take Thompson (who is an abysmal outside shooter) and Taylor (who isn't a good shooter either).

About half of the time Bolden is their three guard and the other half is a mix of wings who can't shoot threes.

More than half of the time, Butler has Bryce Golden at the 5 (6'9 245) and Bryce Nze at the 4 (6'7 235). Both have the ability to shoot outside, but Golden only has 1.5 3pa a game while Nze has 0.8 attempts/game. When those guys are on the court, I have no problem having Whaley and Sanogo on the floor, especially since Golden is an awful interior defender because when he's on, I want Sanogo to get the ball in almost every possession.

If Butler has Thompson + Harris + Bolden as their backcourt, I'm curious if you put Cole on Harris (for quickness), Martin on Thompson (for physicality) and Jackson on Bolden (for length and athleticism on the perimeter).

 

[XLCenterFan]

We match up with them extremely well on paper and we handled them twice last year because of it. Just have to avoid the hot 3-point shooting night.

I predict Butler will go up 3-0. I also predict they will keep it close by draining 3’s, but eventually they will stop falling and we win by double digits. After that last game, I suspect we do not let up in this one.

 

[Umami Zen]

One game at a time. Get the W at home

No reason not to be 16-4 going to Nova if we take care of business and stay focused.

 

[navery12]

One game at a time. Get the W at home

No reason not to be 16-4 going to Nova if we take care of business and stay focused.

 

[elmcityboy]

We match up with them extremely well on paper and we handled them twice last year because of it. Just have to avoid the hot 3-point shooting night.

agreed. a couple of random butler players getting hot from 3 (remember golden last year?) is the last thing we need.

nze is arguably their best player, but whaley absolutely owned him last year. held him to, like, 1 for 10 and blocked at least 3 of his shots in their second game.

 

[Get a Job]

agreed. a couple of random butler players getting hot from 3 (remember golden last year?) is the last thing we need.

nze is arguably their best player, but whaley absolutely owned him last year. held him to, like, 1 for 10 and blocked at least 3 of his shots in their second game.

This post prompted me to look at the box scores from last year's games. Squirrel had 10 blocks against Butler!

Also worth noting, Sanogo was not Sanogo yet when UConn played Butler last season (9 minutes and 20 minutes in the respective matchups). Additionally, Bouknight didn't play in either game. UConn won both games by 12.

 

[Umami Zen]

Sorry. .Moving too fast.. Should have used a transition phrase between the two comments.. What was I thinking ?

Know your audience.

 

[elmcityboy]

This post prompted me to look at the box scores from last year's games. Squirrel had 10 blocks against Butler!

Also worth noting, Sanogo was not Sanogo yet when UConn played Butler last season (9 minutes and 20 minutes in the respective matchups). Additionally, Bouknight didn't play in either game. UConn won both games by 12.

yeah, i just rewatched the @Storrs South highlights from both games after posting. whaley was huge and martin was basically getting whatever he wanted. polley was also red hot in both games. i would take that formula again this week!

 

[karstenkibbe]

yeah, i just rewatched the @Storrs South highlights from both games after posting. whaley was huge and martin was basically getting whatever he wanted. polley was also red hot in both games. i would take that formula again this week!

The good guys were super aggressive on defense in both games last year, and they put on a passing clinic (which I would love to see more of). Polley was aggressive… step-backs, head fakes with pull ups, and catch and shoot. He was fuego hitting from all spots. Even Gaff used the dribble drive AND finished well in that first game at Butler. Would love to see them build confidence, chemistry and momentum this week.

 

[jibsey]

We’re better than them so it is on Hurley to have the team ready.