Scoring and Fouls Reach Historic Lows

[UConnCat]

That was the headline for stories at USA Today and NBC sports talking about Men's College Basketball and a 2012-2013 Trends report issued by the NCAA. This data is being used by those (e.g., Jay Bilas, Rick Pitino) who argue that the college game is too physical and that more fouls need to be called in order to allow more offensive freedom movement (and more scoring).

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2013/04/23/mens-statistics-scoring-and-fouls-low/2107661/
http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspo...g-and-fouling-are-at-historically-low-levels/

I looked at the NCAA's trend report for WCBB and, not surprisingly, the trends are the same and not positive if you like scoring:

• Teams averaged 61.2 ppg in '12-13, compared to 70.2 in 1981-1982; scoring has declined almost every year even though the number of 3pt FGs made has increased
• FG % in '12-13 reached an all-time low of 38.9%; the highest was 44.2% in 1985-1986;
• 3pt FG% in '12-13 was the lowest (30.57%) since the 3-pt shot was introduced in 1987-1988;
• Fouls per game in '12-13 (16.15) was the lowest since this stat has been tracked (2001-2002);
• FT attempts reached an all-time low in '12-13 (17.29 compared to a high of 22.1 in '97-98)
• Assists per game in '12-13 (12.75) were the lowest since this stat was tracked in '01-02 (14.13)

Stated in terms of % decline:

• Scoring has declined 13% since '81-82
• FG% has declined 13.6% since '85-86
• 3pt FG% has declined 11.5% since '88-89
• Fouls per game have declined 10.5% since '01-02
• FTA per game have declined 28% since '97-98
• Assists per game have declined 10.8% since '01-02

http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/public/ncaa/resources/stats/w basketball/trends.html

 

[easttexastrash]

Great research. Thanks for sharing. And I agree that this trend is worrisome.

 

[geordi]

Defense wins championships. There are more good and even compentent teams today than 25 years ago, fewer opportunities for blowouts. More players that have a greater ability to score today so coaches have to address the defensive side of the ball. Happens in all sports. Lower the pitcher's mound. Limit hand checks in football. E\tc.

 

[UcMiami]

Interesting - I suspect Geno would say some of this has to do with young players not practicing skills enough and playing too many games. Breaking this down a little:
1. I think if you look at 3 pt percentage you could support his argument. More three pointers taken per game and a lower percentage being made - the reason I pick this out is because most three pointers taken are generally wide open and certainly not fouled. So this would lead to lower scoring, lower percentages, and has very little to do with physicality. And the fact that a higher percentage of attempts is coming from beyond the arc means fewer shots taken are likely to draw fouls.
2. Another trend that has nothing to do with physicality is post player skills. While fouling jump shooters happens, the coaching mantra is always - never foul a jump shooter. SO if players are listening (and generally they do) most fouls happen within 10' of the basket, and probably within 5 feet. But the trend in WCBB is for post players to be developing better and better shooting range and to shoot a much higher percentage of their shots outside that 10' radius. Stef is a good example - not sure of her shot chart and the foul chart on her - but I would guess she shoots 30+% of her shots from the foul line extended and that 90% of the shooting fouls she draws are within a 5' radius of the basket. And with Stewie that is probably even more pronounced. So anchor them in the 10' radius and you would have more fouls called.
3. Distribution of talent has become much broader. If you are physically over matched as a team you can either play extremely aggressively (with resulting greater number of fouls) or you can roll over and get blown out. I think with parity arriving slowly in WCBB there are more games played with fairly even athletic skills on both sides so coaches do not need to be quite so aggressive in as many games leading to better straight up defense, fewer fouls, fewer easy shots, and a lower shooting percentage. (I think if you look at most teams that had success playing very physical defense with limited talent 10 years ago, you would see them playing better defense with fewer fouls as their talent level improved.)
4. A lot of the 'game is too physical' complaints from coaches are 'anecdotal'. Kim has been complaining in recent years because of BG, 8 years ago it was Sherri because of Paris, and 15 years ago it was probably Geno because of Wolters. More recently Geno has complained in defense of DT and Tina and Maya. And Uconn has often been cited by other teams after defeat for their 'physicality' when we here on the boneyard all know that it was just brilliant positional defense.
5. Finally the athletic skill of the players is much greater - both defensively and offensively. WCBB players while not at the level of men are hanging in the air much more than previous generations and avoiding contact with their acrobatics. Maya was amazing in that regard - a Dr. J kind of player in the women's game. And post players like BG can block shots without slamming into the players in a way that earlier posts could not.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

UcMiami makes a lot of good points. I would add that I'm not sure how the decreasing assist numbers would play into anything to do with physicality either.

Also, the moving back of the 3 point line, while not supposedly significant, might matter.

 

[UConnCat]

I would add that I'm not sure how the decreasing assist numbers would play into anything to do with physicality either.

Also, the moving back of the 3 point line, while not supposedly significant, might matter.

If there is less freedom movement -- cutters are physically impeded -- there will be fewer opportunities for assists. If physical play is making it more difficult to make baskets, there will be fewer assists.

The 3-pt line was moved back beginning in 2011-2012 and compared to the previous year the number of 3-pt attempts declined by .76/game and the % made declined by 1%. Three-point FGA and FGM actually increased slightly in '12-13 compared to '11-12, while the % made declined by .15.

I'm sure there are a number of factors that have caused scoring and shooting percentages to decline in both the men's and women's games over the past 30 years. But if some of the best minds in men's basketball see a connection between increased physicality and less scoring in the men's game, I think it's at least worth examining whether the same exists in the women's game. The emphasis on freedom of movement seems to have worked in the NBA.

 

[DobbsRover2]

I certainly agree that if the scoring is dropping simply because of more physical and "whack'em silly" defense, that it is a bad trend. But as a fan of a team that nearly always leads the WCBB in defense, I also can't really see the drop in scoring as a totally bad thing, especially when it's against UConn.

The question though is why has the scoring dropped? That may be a difficult one to answer and likely revolves around many factors, and not just semi football style defense. It's problematic to compare the game to 20-30 years ago because back then a lot of teams had very little concept of how to play defense and players weren't as fit. There were far more uncontested lay-ups because players weren't getting back on D or providing as much challenge around the basket or putting a hand in the shooter's face. Another factor that has been bandied about is all those youth league teams where the coach just has players surround and attack the ball handler in a system that leads to little progress with developing scoring skills. And quite simply, defensive schemes tend to be much more complex and effective than they were 30 years ago, and as many military hobbyists know, a good defense usually has the advantage over a good offense.

 

[UcMiami]

I would also like to point out - the 'most outrageously physical, worst officiated' game ever (Baylor/Louisville) produced a season average point total for Baylor and a way above average point total for Louisville. Go figure! Combined 163 points.

 

[Scotter]

Basketball on all levels have seem the same trends. The pace of play as been declining for decades. By that I mean fewer possessions in a game. This is primarily related to the 3-point shot, and the way it has completely devalued transition scoring. The 3-point shot completely changed the math of basketball and while it took time for coaches to catch on they are all up on the math now. Before the 3-point shot the only way to generate high percentage shots was to beat the other team down the floor, which came with the risk of turnovers. Eventually coaches caught on that 3-point shooter making just 1 of 3 was effectively shooting 50% from the floor. A jump shot at the end of the shot clock suddenly became a high percentage shot. Coaches also better understood the math of how costly turnovers were. You're giving up not just a shot, but also the opportunity for an offensive rebound. That has devalued passing as well because of the higher risk of turnovers. That math led to a lot of what you see from college basketball programs today. A very slow paced game with a ton of 3-point attempts even if they are low percentage attempts. A drive and kick for a 3 has become the high percentage basketball play.

The other big factor is video technology. In the 80's there was only so much film available for coaches to watch, particularly in a sport like women's basketball. In the 90's you're still watching full game tapes on small TVs. Now the amount of access to digital video coaches have is immense as well as how easy it is to sort through. This has helped coaches with improving defense for more than offense. Defenders now know team and player tendencies. It has helped the science of defensive coaching to the point we have today where teams are much more physical in the paint and in bumping and disrupting cutters that defenses used to be. All you have to do is look at how much more sophisticated UConn has become in terms of defensive techniques since 2000 let alone 1995.

 

[Icebear]

Excellent thoughts, Scotter.

 

[UcMiami]

Scotter - nice!
I think there is also a lot more 1 on 1 play in men's basketball than there was 20 years ago and less focus on fundaments - I love Geno's description of a male basketball player's comment on a play - 'you mean I am supposed to set this screen, take a shoulder in my chest, and then not shoot the ball?! What's with that sh__!' - That leads to easier defense, and more difficult shots. Male players are incredibly talented, and can make a decent percentage of very difficult shots, but they would be shooting better if the team was setting better screens, making better passes, and getting wide open shots. All factors on the way the offense is run and not anything to do with defense and physicality.
And it used to be that a guard driving into the lane and taking on the bigs, would be whacked really hard. If he did it again, he would be whacked even harder. Eventually he learned not to do that. That was 'physical play' back before the advent of flagrant 1 and flagrant 2, and everybody did it, and no one complained. And announcers used to joke about it. You think Bill Russell would have stood by and let Michael Jordan show him up - not happening! He might have fouled out, but Jordan would be seeing stars for a week, and settled for jump shots the next time he saw Bill.

 

[DobbsRover2]

The 3 has definitely been a big factor. It often takes some time off the clock and cuts down on possessions as offenses feel out the defense and try to get set up on the perimeter for a fairly open 3. And it also tends to cut down on the easy transitions because there is likely at least one player getting back on D off a missed shot fairly quickly to thwart an uncontested layup. To have a small quick guard attacking the basket is a riskier and less of a high percentage play these days.

 

[Brad Palmer]

Conservative coaches; very few risk-takers/creative offensive minds.

 

[alexrgct]

There have been some who advocate for rule changes like in the NBA that favor offenses. My concern is that WBB officiating is at a level that I wouldn't want to see the refs with even more ability to affect the outcome of a game.