Score prediction thread for SMU

[CTtransplant]

Whats the first tie breaker?
82-41 is closer to 83-41 than 84-42.

This again brings up the issue of what is the best way to calculate the forecast which is closest to the actual result. Winlots has always said it is based on margin of victory, but there have been others who argue that you could have the best margin of victory and still be very far away from the actual score. I have tended to calculate the mathematically closest forecast when there is a significant discrepancy. In this case it was very close, and, indeed, ochoopsfan was closer to the actual score by a slight margin. This game, only 5 forecasters beat Massey. I am sure those 5 would not want to forecast the scores for 349 D1 teams twice each week. Massey is pretty darn good!

I know I owe some of you an explanation for the calculation of the distance. I will do that tomorrow.

 

[HoopsHoppy]

View attachment 19667
This again brings up the issue of what is the best way to calculate the forecast which is closest to the actual result. Winlots has always said it is based on margin of victory, but there have been others who argue that you could have the best margin of victory and still be very far away from the actual score. I have tended to calculate the mathematically closest forecast when there is a significant discrepancy. In this case it was very close, and, indeed, ochoopsfan was closer to the actual score by a slight margin. This game, only 5 forecasters beat Massey. I am sure those 5 would not want to forecast the scores for 349 D1 teams twice each week. Massey is pretty darn good!

I know I owe some of you an explanation for the calculation of the distance. I will do that tomorrow.

I'm just a loyal foot soldier with no axe to grind in the rule setting. My thought is we are on a thread winlots starts and, each time, he sets forth what counts:
1, pick the winner
2. Closest to margin of victory
3. If multiple tied, closest to winning team score.
There's always been a sub plot working to get closest to the winning/losing team scores but, again, I figure I'm reporting on a thread with the rules up front so that's how I go.

 

[winlots]

Will go through the tape and try to find the spot where they gave UConn a three pointer when it was only a two. Don't really want to check each foul shot made to see what one shouldn't have been called. Other than that, all I can say is another great prognostication for you and I'm sure winlots will properly and appropriately recognize and reward you.

Sorry to be late to the party...many factors, including NE snow clean up, NE snow prep, and early Valentines celebration (you young bucks take note; you gotta start these celebrations early and end 'em late).
Bottom lines: seems to be another dispute on winner.....wife and I just finished our tape....getting ready to watch Geno....and will check in late tonight or tomorrow with my viewpoint after digesting all available data.

Meanwhile, if CT TRAN is out there and able to weigh in with data to either supplement or
challenge the prodigious and consistently fine data from HOOPS himself, I'm sure we would be appreciative.
When we roll out the balls, we'll roll 'em out on this thread rather than a new post-game thread.

 

[DaddyChoc]

the title is "SCORE" prediction not MOV prediction

 

[winlots]

First off, I have to own, as in be responsible for, some things here ( hope to be clear, and welcome any help to that end):

Am not the clearest communicator; am often late in posting results of this competition; there are times when I don't even think with the same degree of precision once enjoyed; the thread was initiated this season to be enjoyed by those who chose to participate in and/or observe a friendly and spirited competition; in doing so, the intention was and is to create some fun for all, within the context of a few rules for the game which were clearly stated and simple, not all- encompassing or perfect. All that, the not so hot and the perhaps a little more palatable, I own. ( There has never been any suggestion that this is the only way, let alone the best way, to conduct this type of competition.)

In line with the guidelines for the competition, we have two top predictors for the SMU game.. The imperfect rules for the breaking of ties did not work this time. In the grand scheme of life, hopefully any resulting heartburn for any participant or any observer will be as minimal as my own. Those winners are, with an exact MOV of 42: HUSKY NUT and WISE ONE, with OCHOOPSFAN and RAYVIN56 right on their heels at just one off the actual.

The next tier finds JBDUCT and BIGBIRD just two off the win, followed by some other hotshots just three off: HUSKEE11, RWSLEEP, and HOOPSHOPPY. Others tantalizingly close...usually draw the line beyond three off win. Congrats to all and special thanks for CTTRANSPLANT and HOOPS HOPPY for their invaluable data. As always, corrections warmly welcomed,and other ways of looking at the data welcome and, in some cases even admired. ).