School whose presence on the list scares you the most. | The Boneyard

School whose presence on the list scares you the most.

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shizzle787

shizzle787

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Personally, it's Cincy because if one school is taken from the east to complement a BYU or Houston in the west, they might have the edge over us.
 
Cincy feels like a given if there is an expansion and UConn is involved. I don't see the B12 leapfrogging Cincy just to get to UConn. (1) Houston & BYU, (2) Houston & Cincy, (3) Cincy & UConn, and (4) no expansion are the four scenarios I keep coming up with as most likely to happen.
 
BYU. I could see the Big XII taking BYU as part of a westward package deal with CSU. BYU and Cincy also seems like a reasonable combination. I think if BYU was out of the picture there definitely would be eastward expansion and that would have to include UConn
 
Any school with an F in its name.

Cincy and Houston have been high up for a bit. I think BYU is a bad fit. If you're expanding your footprint, cincy and UH don't move the dial. Florida opens possibilities. I'm pulling for us and cincy
 
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gioff23 said:
Any school with an F in its name.

Cincy and Houston have been high up for a bit. I think BYU is a bad fit. If you're expanding your footprint, cincy and UH don't move the dial. Florida opens possibilities. I'm pulling for us and cincy
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That's why I'd say Houston worries me. With BYU fading, Cincy/Houston is the combo with the highest NKP (kick potential). Ciny/UConn is likely the only 2 team combo that gets UConn in, and I don't have a handle on what the chances of that happening are. I'd feel better if we hear that 4 teams or 2 all sports + 2 football only scenarios are gaining steam.
 
Also - maybe this thread should just be merged with the kick thread.
 
Houston seems like it has been guaranteed to be in. Their football program is peaking at the right time, they have the support of Texas politicians, and they are seemingly becoming America's next darling program. Their President and AD couldn't stop yapping yesterday at the OU game which would be odd if they are under a NDA. Then again, they might be so confident that they are in that they don't care.

My thing that "scares" me most isn't a particular school name...it's the number of schools that the B12 will expand with.

If that number is 2, we are more of a longshot because adding 2 means football will be the only factor used to rate candidates. Adding 2 could mean UH + BYU or Cincinnati and UConn is once again a Maid of Honor. If that's the scenario, I hope it's UH + BYU. If we lose Cincinnati (without replacing them with BYU), it would crush the AAC and take away yet another r1val from us. Adding 2 would be the short-term solution to simply add to football profile to create a top championship game...then dissolve in 2024.

If the Big 12 thinks long-term and adds 4, then I like our chances much more. If the number is 4, to me, that means the B12 is interested in post-2024 life and will need to add markets and top brands. The conference network ship has sailed from ESPN's port but the B12 could still make a go of it on FOX/Streaming platforms. I watched a little FS1 yesterday. The games they promote are almost entirely midwest and west coast. They need to get out east BAD. Streaming content requires big name brands to generate interest. Again, we are well positioned there.

Admittedly, I am also scared of our own fanbase. If we don't get close to a sellout against UVA and Cuse, while posting solid local TV ratings, we could get leapfrogged by a FL directional. Their TV markets are good and they obviously bring much better football recruiting opportunities for the conference. If we post lethargic interest in the early going, then our profile might drop.
 
Dooley said:
Admittedly, I am also scared of our own fanbase. If we don't get close to a sellout against UVA and Cuse, while posting solid local TV ratings, we could get leapfrogged by a FL directional. Their TV markets are good and they obviously bring much better football recruiting opportunities for the conference. If we post lethargic interest in the early going, then our profile might drop.
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I don't think we'll get leapfrogged by UCF/USF, but even if we do, it won't be soley because of attendance over a handful of 2016 home games. It'll be the longer term trend which we haven't turned around, and there's just not enough time to generate a solid trend to point to. UConn fans should show up at the Rent regardless, but TBH I don't think attendance by itself is going to be that big of a factor for the B12 presidents, although the media will pretend it is.
 
This is sausage making at its best.

You might just be looking at blind voting ... and not anything that makes sense; that's the way this B12 stuff appears to be leaking out. The coalition of the North (like Game of Thrones) ... and then the Texas influence. OUR best hope is that they get stuck. No University gets 8 in any shape to make 2. They get a nose up from FOX ... who is incentivized to get more content (in the East presumably) ... and that leads to overwhelming the ESPN objections to 4. Stitch everyone's favorites (and that's how Memphis got kicked). And for what it's worth, somebody has been supporting UConn - imo. Florida makes sense ... but both those schools (and really, how do you distinguish USF from UCF) suffer from being too brand spanking new for a B12.
 
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As I was watching UH/OU I was quite uncomfortable. The timing could not be better for them. I had a vision of Cincy/Houston being announced and I think that is the most realistic scenario at the moment. It sucks because that is THE absolute worse scenario for UConn right now.
 
We sure have a lot of guys who walk around with clouds over their respective heads.
 
This is the stuff that scares me, I know it's supposed to be a process ran by University Presidents who should be looking at the long term viability of candidates, but then I remember this is the Big12 we're talking about and who knows how far logic and reasoning will actually go in that room.

Dennis DoddVerified account‏@dennisdoddcbs
Houston has all but played its way into the B12. If not, B12 has to explain why. Imagine THAT presser.
link to article

The amount of crap we as a fanbase will have to put up with should we get in as 1 of 2 not including UH is gonna be astounding, no matter how well the Big12 makes a case for us at an announcement presser
 
Santini35 said:
This is the stuff that scares me, I know it's supposed to be a process ran by University Presidents who should be looking at the long term viability of candidates, but then I remember this is the Big12 we're talking about and who knows how far logic and reasoning will actually go in that room.

Dennis DoddVerified account‏@dennisdoddcbs
Houston has all but played its way into the B12. If not, B12 has to explain why. Imagine THAT presser.
link to article

The amount of crap we as a fanbase will have to put up with should we get in as 1 of 2 not including UH is gonna be astounding, no matter how well the Big12 makes a case for us at an announcement presser
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They are all jumping on the wobbly wheel band wagon:
Behind the scenes with Houston as it prepped to upset Oklahoma
 
Just my opinion: UConn needs the Big 12 to have a 4-team expansion. As Dooley noted, if there's a 2-team expansion, then some combo of Cincinnati, Houston and BYU is highly likely. The 2-team expansion is what should scare UConn the most (regardless of who those 2 might be).

In the event of a 4-team expansion, it's an even greater bet that all 3 of Cincinnati, Houston and BYU get in. Now, I believe UConn has an excellent shot in that scenario where they would be the front-runner as school #4. However, the one school to watch out for is Colorado State. I'm not sure why so many reporters and analysts seem to be surprised at their inclusion on the Big 12 list of candidates: they're in a fast-growing state that the Big 12 really wants to be in (as the Denver market is quite possibly the #1 destination for Big 12 grads outside of the state of Texas... and that's even after CU had left) with solid academics, have a new football stadium being built and have synergistic value in a pairing with BYU to cover the mountain west region (which only has the Pac-12 as competition compared to the heavy competition with the Big Ten, SEC and ACC to the east). I don't see CSU getting into the Big 12 in a 2-school expansion, but they are a potentially compelling complement to BYU in a 4-school expansion (essentially avoiding the geographic outlier issue in the west that WVU has had in the east). Once again, Denver is a particularly key market for the Big 12 because the league's alums across-the-board are moving there in droves (unlike pretty much all of the non-Texas-based markets being considered in this expansion process). In a way, it's similar to why the Big Ten added Rutgers: they weren't looking for NYC to be a "Rutgers market", but rather a "Big Ten market" based on the synergy with all of the alums from Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State and other Big Ten schools that already lived in that market. There's a similar dynamic that's potentially in play with respect to Colorado State and the Denver market (where the actual CSU fandom there is less relevant than the Big 12 getting back direct access to a market where so many of their schools' alums already live).
 
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My stance has always been if it's 2 teams, it'll be close. If it's 4 teams, we're a shoe-in.

A lot of people have been kind of trading off benefits, but I also see UConn having the fewest things going against them.

-They're a state-run school like almost everyone in the Big XII
-A far bigger athletic budget than any of the other candidate schools.
-Their academics are superior to almost all the other candidate schools.
-While football lags - it's combined value with hoops (men's and women) puts them safely in the middle of the pack in the Big XII overall.
-The only team being considered that really dominates its market and has a monstrous presence in two massive media markets (New York City and Boston).
-A much better sports 'tradition' so to speak than the other candidate schools.

From Cincinnati, Houston, BYU and UCF/USF are behind the 8-ball on almost all of that or in some way - don't line up on something or other on that list. I think even our detractors - compared to others - are less of a huge worry in terms of whether they can turn the corner (football attendance, etc) or not. I just think we're a much stronger candidate than the media or ourselves are given credit for.

Of everyone NOT on this list - who would I think would be the biggest 'threat'? Meh - BYU or Houston. Houston kind of fits. BYU too. Both big football and geographically close. BYU certainly doesn't hurt you academically. Political push behind Houston from the state of Texas is pretty significant. To me - Cincinnati isn't really a difference maker. They don't dominate their market, they're a commuter school, basically and don't help the conference on a variety of fronts - at least not compared to the competition. My bet is UConn and one of BYU/Houston gets in. If 4 - then those three and then who knows.
 
Towney007 said:
My stance has always been if it's 2 teams, it'll be close. If it's 4 teams, we're a shoe-in.

A lot of people have been kind of trading off benefits, but I also see UConn having the fewest things going against them.

-They're a state-run school like almost everyone in the Big XII
-A far bigger athletic budget than any of the other candidate schools.
-Their academics are superior to almost all the other candidate schools.
-While football lags - it's combined value with hoops (men's and women) puts them safely in the middle of the pack in the Big XII overall.
-The only team being considered that really dominates its market and has a monstrous presence in two massive media markets (New York City and Boston).
-A much better sports 'tradition' so to speak than the other candidate schools.

From Cincinnati, Houston, BYU and UCF/USF are behind the 8-ball on almost all of that or in some way - don't line up on something or other on that list. I think even our detractors - compared to others - are less of a huge worry in terms of whether they can turn the corner (football attendance, etc) or not. I just think we're a much stronger candidate than the media or ourselves are given credit for.

Of everyone NOT on this list - who would I think would be the biggest 'threat'? Meh - BYU or Houston. Houston kind of fits. BYU too. Both big football and geographically close. BYU certainly doesn't hurt you academically. Political push behind Houston from the state of Texas is pretty significant. To me - Cincinnati isn't really a difference maker. They don't dominate their market, they're a commuter school, basically and don't help the conference on a variety of fronts - at least not compared to the competition. My bet is UConn and one of BYU/Houston gets in. If 4 - then those three and then who knows.
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If you're not worried about Cincinnati, then you're being *extremely* naive. In the context of the Big 12, they're very strong (and even if you don't think they're the strongest school in any one area, then at minimum they have the fewest flaws of any candidate). They have a large market that's net new for the Big 12 (unlike Houston), solid football credentials, a top tier elite football recruiting territory (which shouldn't be underestimated), addresses the geographic issues with WVU, good academics, and no political controversies (unlike BYU). I understand that you're looking at it from the UConn perspective and trying to simultaneously prop up UConn's credentials and push down Cincinnati's credentials (which makes the gap look small or non-existent), but Cincinnati is *serious* competition here in reality. I actually find it extremely difficult to see how any 2-school combination doesn't include Cincinnati. A BYU/Cincinnati combo seems possible and a Houston/Cincinnati seems very possible (and probably the most likely at this point), whereas I think a BYU/Houston combo is unlikely. Frankly, if UConn does get into the Big 12 in a 2-school expansion, it would almost certainly be with Cincinnati, as well. (A BYU/UConn or Houston/UConn combo doesn't jive, either.) If this were the ACC expanding, then it would be one thing and all of the attributes that you listed for UConn would carry more weight. (And, even then, we saw what happened with Louisville being chosen a few years ago.) However, the Big 12 isn't necessarily looking at things the same way. It's a much more football-focused league with a significant amount of local political intervention involved and they aren't looking at things from a TV network perspective (which makes net new TV households less relevant).
 
And let me be clear - I have absolutely no vested or personal interest in advocating for or against Cincinnati whatsoever. I'm just calling it like I see it in this situation: they probably have the least to worry about in the Big 12 expansion game. BYU and Houston are going to be in a fight for political reasons (the former on social issues and the latter on Texas politician influence) while UConn's best shot is to push for a 4-school expansion.
 
It's all rather pathetic. Any conference that chooses the University of Houston over Cincinnati, UConn, CSU didn't do their homework. That being said, I place no particular intelligence on the members of the Big 12 either. If football success, as defined by the masses, is 90% of the equation I would suggest that Herbst et. al. just stay home and forget about a presentation since it's just not worth the effort. I believe a decision has already been made anyway and that all of the public pronouncements are puffery.. Whatever that is, I don't know. Dodd has got to be an idiot for so many reasons but I've never thought highly of sports media since they always take the lowest denominator and run with it. Yep Dennis, having to answer to you why Houston wasn't chosen because you (and the hoi polloi?) can't see beyond the last 14 football games is sooo difficult. Please. FWIW, I agree with Frank on Cincinnati and they should be choice #1.
 
Cinci doesn't dominate any single metric, but they are solid across the board, Geography is their strongest case, both by giving access to Ohio recruting grounds and by being and by being close to WVU. UConn, on the other hand does dominate some metrics, academic standing, national brand value, bb success, athletic department success (NCs in a variety of sports, plus decent baseball and hockey), athletic budget size, and media market (when adding Fairfield county to the Hartford/New Haven DMA, plus reach into NYC and New England.) Unfortuanately these aren't sexy items for football fans to talk about. The weight the Big 12 presidents place on them is unknown. When the final ranking of the candidates takes place, they could carry UConn to being chosen, just as Cinci being solid accross the board could carry them. It is hard to predict.

I'd be curious to know the order of presentations. That might be a tip of the B12's cards, or it could turn out to be alphabetical or random.
 
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