SCar vs UConn ( Potential ) Rematch

[azfan]

Why are they low probability IFs, or are you just hoping they are low probability ifs? Lou and Aaliyah both played like they were in January the last three games and Azzi was a couple of centimeters off her jump shot from being close to November form. If we make it to the sweet sixteen I'd put the odds around 70% chance of Azzi being back to early season form- at that point she would be back close to a month and have played 5 games of varying competition. The rust should be gone.

If we do meet South Carolina again it will mean that Azzi is back to November form which means it will be the toughest team South Carolina will have had to face all year. Fingers crossed we get the rematch.

Against Iowa Azzi 24 points on 10 of 19
Against NCS Azzi 32 points in 12 of 24

That was then

Against Villanova Azzi 11 points on 4 of 12
Against Marquette Azzi 4 points on 2 of 7
Against Georgetown Azzi 10 points on 3 of 9

This is now

Those few centimeters make both a big difference AND for a low low probability of Azzi return to these performances AND Lou returning to early season performance AND AE performing at a high level all against the best defense in WBB.



One of those three things might happen but all three..... Unfortunately that probability would be considered very very very low.

I'm a huge Husky fan. Really admire the coach and the program and after rooting for NAU, ASU and GCU the Huskies are my favorite team and near and dear to my heart.

Just as I'm rooting really hard for The Lumberjacks against the wandering Lobos like you I'll be rooting very hard for the Huskies

That passion however can't cloud reality.

 

[GamecockFam]

Not sure you want Raven Johnson on Azzi- Azzi would be able to shoot over her and post her up. If UConn plays a predominately plays a line-up of Lou, Nika, Azzi, Dorka, and Aaliyah they lose imo. Beal shuts down Azzi, Johnson Shuts down Nika and Cooke stays on Lou. Then you're a relying on the front court to outscore South Carolina's which imo isn't going to happen. In this scenario Dawn forces Lou/Aaliyah/Dorka to initiate the offense.

If I were Dawn the game plan would be to aggressively pressure the guards and force Aaliyah and Dorka to beat them down low by denying them the ball around the perimeter. That is slightly harder to do with Azzi back because 1) its an extra guard you have to face guard the whole time and 2) Unlike Nika she is an elite 3 level scorer with size so over denying and pressuring her could lead to some easy baskets. This should effectively win South Carolina the game though as they have the athleticism and bodies to effectively disrupt our offense.

Another option Dawn has is having Boston guard Aaliyah and make Dorka have to beat Cardosa or Saxon from the perimeter and driving to the basket. Thats would I would do if I were Dawn and think it could be a nightmare for our offense.

However, there are some tactical move Geno can make to force Dawn to make some adjustments herself - which she is excellent at making btw - but could change the game from last match up.

1- Play Aubrey over Nika and have Fudd run the offense. This gives UConn some interesting match up opportunties on both sides of the ball. South Carolina can either take their best defender off of Azzi and hope Cooke or Johnson can shut her down despite give up 3-4 inches. Or they put Cooke or Johnson on Aubrey who would be a big mismatch height and speed wise for them and hope we can't take advantage. OR they take Cooke or Johnson out and put Amihere on Aubrey which has its own trade offs on the other side of the floor.

2 - Press. South Carolina doesn't average very many turnovers but if UConn can bring their press back from the grave and keep South Carolina from setting up their offense or even playing half court defense at all that could be a big. They don't even need to necessarily turn South Carolina over a bunch- just throw their offense out of rhythm and disrupt what they want to. It also could force them to play a smaller line-up which could be advantageous due to the potential mismatches above.

It would be interesting if we met again. For that to happen though Azzi would have to return to November/December form and Aaliyah and Lou to January form and those are a LOT of ifs.

I've been avoiding this thread because of the bad juju but I can't anymore. Azzi (5'11") isn't THAT much taller than Zia (5'9") and Raven (5'8"). Plus Zia has a really good vertical and is good at posting up. Teams have tried that against her and failed.

Also Raven will never be matched up with Aubrey. She'll either be matched up with Nika or Azzi -- whoever is at PG. Zia would primarily be matched up with Azzi at SG and probably switch out for LA if Aubrey is the SG. I actually think that would play to South Carolina's advantage on defense and would give us another tall, strong rebounder on offense. We would lose Zia's ability to shoot the ball and spread out the defense but that's the only disadvantage with that match up IMO.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Against Iowa Azzi 24 points on 10 of 19
Against NCS Azzi 32 points in 12 of 24

Those few centimeters make both a big difference AND for a low low probability of Azzi return to these performances AND Lou returning to early season performance AND AE performing at a high level all against the best defense in WBB.

One of those three things might happen but all three..... Unfortunately that probability would be considered very very very low.

I'm a huge Husky fan. Really admire the coach and the program and after rooting for NAU, ASU and GCU the Huskies are my favorite team and near and dear to my heart.

Just as I'm rooting really hard for The Lumberjacks against the wandering Lobos like you I'll be rooting very hard for the Huskies

That passion however can't cloud reality.

But 2 of the three have already happened.

 

[azfan]

Zia would primarily be matched up with Azzi at SG and probably switch out for LA if Aubrey is the SG. I actually think that would play to South Carolina's advantage on defense and would give us another tall, strong rebounder on offense. We would lose Zia's ability to shoot the ball and spread out the defense but that's the only disadvantage with that match up IMO.

On point! USC dominates the boards.

On Feb 5 the Gamecocks had 25 offensive rebounds. When you think about it it's amazing that the Huskies made this a four-point game.

One thing the Huskies did well in that game was to reduce turnovers I believe the team had 13. But with that said the Gamecocks had six.

Juju on this thread has been really interesting.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I've been avoiding this thread because of the bad juju but I can't anymore. Azzi (5'11") isn't THAT much taller than Zia (5'9") and Raven (5'8"). Plus Zia has a really good vertical.

Also Raven will never be matched up with Aubrey. She'll either be matched up with Nika or Azzi -- whoever is at PG. Zia would primarily be matched up with Azzi at SG and probably switch out for LA if Aubrey is the SG. I actually think that would play to South Carolina's advantage on defense and would give us another tall, strong rebounder on offense. We would lose Zia's ability to shoot the ball and spread out the defense but that's the only disadvantage with that match up IMO.

2-3 inches is pretty significant with a release as quick as Azzi's though. You generally need someone taller to properly contest her shot- if you want to put Cooke or Johnson on her that would be an ideal match-up for UConn.

If you want to take Cooke out for Amihere and play a line up of Johnson - Amihere- Beal - Cardosa - Boston that would be smart to your point defensively and on the boards. The flip side of that is I think that would be a line-up vulnerable to an aggressive press. I think that would be UConn's counter and I could see it going either way.

Again, unlikely we meet again and disappointing we couldn't properly meet the first time to watch this chess meet play out. Just a fun thought exercise.

 

[Bone Dog]

I rewatched the Stanford-SC game from November and it struck me differently this time. Earlier, I thought each side underperformed offensively. But this time, it seemed to me that both sides played outstanding defense. A ton of credit goes to the benches -- Hall and Amihere had awesome defensive games, as did Prechtel and Lepolo. I would also give a lot of praise to Dawn for her in-game coaching. She doesn't always impress me in this way, but she really managed her players well. Tara did well too.

If we get this rematch, it could be an amazing game. Naturally, I long to see an SC-UConn rematch. But I wouldn't mind watching this one either.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I rewatched the Stanford-SC game from November and it struck me differently this time. Earlier, I thought each side underperformed offensively. But this time, it seemed to me that both sides played outstanding defense. A ton of credit goes to the benches -- Hall and Amihere had awesome defensive games, as did Prechtel and Lepolo. I would also give a lot of praise to Dawn for her in-game coaching. She doesn't always impress me in this way, but she really managed her players well. Tara did well too.

If we get this rematch, it could be an amazing game. Naturally, I long to see an SC-UConn rematch. But I wouldn't mind watching this one either.

Stanford had gotten worse as the season has gone on. Defensively they are still strong but I’d imagine South Carolina would win going away because Stanford is so offensively limited.

I suppose if Stanford was able to put all their pieces together finally they could make a game of it but seeing as it’s March and that has yet to happen, seems unlikely.

 

[azfan]

I rewatched the Stanford-SC game from November and it struck me differently this time. Earlier, I thought each side underperformed offensively. But this time, it seemed to me that both sides played outstanding defense. A ton of credit goes to the benches -- Hall and Amihere had awesome defensive games, as did Prechtel and Lepolo. I would also give a lot of praise to Dawn for her in-game coaching. She doesn't always impress me in this way, but she really managed her players well. Tara did well too.

If we get this rematch, it could be an amazing game. Naturally, I long to see an SC-UConn rematch. But I wouldn't mind watching this one either.

Absolutely agree. USC #1, Stanford #3 Massey defense (interesting Duke #2)

 

[hoophuskee]

If UConn wants to win they'll have to create match up issues for South Carolina and the Nika/Lou/Azzi line-up plays right into South Carolina's hands. And regardless of if Beal slows Azzi down vs shutting her down, she will likely score more effectively on someone else either way.

Upon the thread creation I felt as you did before you made the comment in bold - which I 100% agree with you point in bold.- that Azzi is back to form if UCONN is in Finals with SC. But it would not only be Azzi. It would mean that the UCONN team was back to form similar to its early season proficiency,. We were a legit stud team. And Azzi Fudd was being briefly discussed as a POY candidate. Beal is a fine player ttu we're talking Fudd may be at POY level. IMO you "challenge" Beal and the SC defense just as you probably have been doing as you got to the Finals when you're player is a POY caliber candidate.

And if SC "chooses" to overplay Nika Muhl and allow Fudd, the NPOY potential candidate a 4-0n-4 - UCONN - I say please just try it. Fudd is more than a shooter. She is a very good ball-handler and an extremely heady player that wasn't available.

I believe if they got this far, and probably Azzi has been terrific, then you let it ride with your superstar POY candidate All-American. I don't believe that Nika/Azzi/Lou fits into SC's plans. For example, if Azzi Fudd is playing well, then probably wouldn't the whole offensive game open up for UCONN? yes defensively they would struggle. But if Azzi was doing well then, their defense might be struggling too.

Possible UCONN misses everything and we get blown out. Possible we win. But as stated I believe SC Defense just good enough to slow down UCONN while remaining a force on the boards and one wing or guard from SC comes up big in scoring such as a slight surprise scoring in Beal. I love experienced players.


"If we do meet South Carolina again it will mean that Azzi is back to November form which means it will be the toughest team South Carolina will have had to face all year. Fingers crossed we get the rematch."

 

[shiverz45]

2-3 inches is pretty significant with a release as quick as Azzi's though. You generally need someone taller to properly contest her shot- if you want to put Cooke or Johnson on her that would be an ideal match-up for UConn.

If you want to take Cooke out for Amihere and play a line up of Johnson - Amihere- Beal - Cardosa - Boston that would be smart to your point defensively and on the boards. The flip side of that is I think that would be a line-up vulnerable to an aggressive press. I think that would be UConn's counter and I could see it going either way.

Again, unlikely we meet again and disappointing we couldn't properly meet the first time to watch this chess meet play out. Just a fun thought exercise.

Amihere and Beal are exceptional ball handlers, so the press might not yield the results you expect. Amihere can guard 1-5 so putting a line up together to counteract any lineup UConn throws out there is very doable. History has shown that SC is better the second time around when facing the same opponent. SC has never had an issue with Azzi, so whether she can do to SC what she did to other opponents remain to be seen. Hopefully she is healthy if we meet.

 

[Drew8]

South Carolina has the easiest time breaking the press that I have ever seen.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Amihere and Beal are exceptional ball handlers, so the press might not yield the results you expect. Amihere can guard 1-5 so putting a line up together to counteract any lineup UConn throws out there is very doable. History has shown that SC is better the second time around when facing the same opponent. SC has never had an issue with Azzi, so whether she can do to SC what she did to other opponents remain to be seen. Hopefully she is healthy if we meet.

Yea I have watched every South Carolina game for two and half year and neither of them ar exceptional ball handlers. Beal’s handle is fine but Amihere’s is pretty weak when she’s playing guard. For a post it’s fine. Her pocket is just begging to be picked half picked have the time. It’s nothing against South Carolina, there are so few exceptional ball handlers in college basketball these days. I don’t think anyone on UConn is an exceptional ball handler either. Maybe Ines but she doesn’t play.

You also have never faced a healthy Azzi. Her first game she was limited by a foot injury annd only played 10 minutes and then was out for a bunch of games last season season and her second game she was limited by the flu and only played the first half. We would need a healthy Azzi to make far enough to meet South Carolina so it would be interesting to see how she’s do.

 

[shiverz45]

Yea I have watched every South Carolina game for two and half year and neither of them ar exceptional ball handlers. Beal’s handle is fine but Amihere’s is pretty weak when she’s playing guard. For a post it’s fine. Her pocket is just begging to be picked half picked have the time. It’s nothing against South Carolina, there are so few exceptional ball handlers in college basketball these days. I don’t think anyone on UConn is an exceptional ball handler either. Maybe Ines but she doesn’t play.

You also have never faced a healthy Azzi. Her first game she was limited by a foot injury annd only played 10 minutes and then was out for a bunch of games last season season and her second game she was limited by the flu and only played the first half. We would need a healthy Azzi to make far enough to meet South Carolina so it would be interesting to see how she’s do.

Azzi did play the second half in the championship game. I remember her hitting a 3 late in the 4th quarter. She did not have the flu. It was stated "she woke up with a stomach bug and missed shoot around". If she had the flu, we definitely would have seen it in her demeanor on the court. Michael Jordan played with the flu and he looked like he was going to die. I didn't see anyone escorting her to the bench. I do agree you will need to be healthy to make a deep run in the tournament to face whoever is on the other side. I am not a fan who will guarantee SC will be on the other side. Anything can happen in March.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Upon the thread creation I felt as you did before you made the comment in bold - which I 100% agree with you point in bold.- that Azzi is back to form if UCONN is in Finals with SC. But it would not only be Azzi. It would mean that the UCONN team was back to form similar to its early season proficiency,. We were a legit stud team. And Azzi Fudd was being briefly discussed as a POY candidate. Beal is a fine player ttu we're talking Fudd may be at POY level. IMO you "challenge" Beal and the SC defense just as you probably have been doing as you got to the Finals when you're player is a POY caliber candidate.

And if SC "chooses" to overplay Nika Muhl and allow Fudd, the NPOY potential candidate a 4-0n-4 - UCONN - I say please just try it. Fudd is more than a shooter. She is a very good ball-handler and an extremely heady player that wasn't available.

I believe if they got this far, and probably Azzi has been terrific, then you let it ride with your superstar POY candidate All-American. I don't believe that Nika/Azzi/Lou fits into SC's plans. For example, if Azzi Fudd is playing well, then probably wouldn't the whole offensive game open up for UCONN? yes defensively they would struggle. But if Azzi was doing well then, their defense might be struggling too.

Possible UCONN misses everything and we get blown out. Possible we win. But as stated I believe SC Defense just good enough to slow down UCONN while remaining a force on the boards and one wing or guard from SC comes up big in scoring such as a slight surprise scoring in Beal. I love experienced players.


"If we do meet South Carolina again it will mean that Azzi is back to November form which means it will be the toughest team South Carolina will have had to face all year. Fingers crossed we get the rematch."

South Carolina is just going to play man.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Azzi did play the second half in the championship game. I remember her hitting a 3 late in the 4th quarter. She did not have the flu. It was stated "she woke up with a stomach bug and missed shoot around". If she had the flu, we definitely would have seen it in her demeanor on the court. Michael Jordan played with the flu and he looked like he was going to die. I didn't see anyone escorting her to the bench. I do agree you will need to be healthy to make a deep run in the tournament to face whoever is on the other side. I am not a fan who will guarantee SC will be on the other side. Anything can happen in March.

My mistake but she 16 minutes either way and that three were her only points of the game. Clearly not a healthy Fudd.

I don’t see how South Carolina won’t make the championship game. Boston is already teasing revealing her return after winning the championship. If players are that confident the fans must be even more so!

 

[Topdawg]

This year‘s team is very different. Williams, Nelson-Ododa, Westbrook, and Bueckers will not be there from last year. We get Lopez Senechal, Fudd, Griffin, and Juhasz. Aaliyah and Nika are vastly improved. I would wager this team is better than last year’s. I look forward to them making it all the way to the finals.

 

[azfan]

South Carolina is just going to play man.

Absolutely.... And their on ball defense as reflected in the ratings is off the charts.

I may be mistaken but I believe the 51% shooting by the Huskies on February 5th was the highest given up by the Gamecocks all year. And in spite of that terrific shooting the Huskies really didn't have a chance as they were crushed on the boards. USC had 25 offensive boards, six blocks, and in a really outstanding game never lost their composure.

While I'm hoping for a Hoosiers type miracle and if anyone can do that besides Gene Hackman it's Geno it's not in the cards this year.

 

[shiverz45]

My mistake but she 16 minutes either way and that three were her only points of the game. Clearly not a healthy Fudd.

I don’t see how South Carolina won’t make the championship game. Boston is already teasing revealing her return after winning the championship. If players are that confident the fans must be even more so!

I am confident but there has been bigger upsets as you all know.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I am confident but there has been bigger upsets as you all know.

I’m not sure there have been actually? Maybe on the mens side? I think if people canceled the tournament and gave South Carolina no one would put up a fight. Or at least not much of one.

 

[shiverz45]

I’m not sure there have been actually? Maybe on the mens side? I think if people canceled the tournament and gave South Carolina no one would put up a fight. Or at least not much of one.

You are joking right. I would say most of the UConn fans believe they are better than SC since Azzi is healthy. Especially the ones on twitter. I am sure most will strongly protest. Louisville/Baylor, Miss State/UConn and Harvard/Stanford are up there as far as upset goes. SC will be favored but it would be single digits against Stanford, UConn, and possibly Indiana.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

You are joking right. I would say most of the UConn fans believe they are better than SC since Azzi is healthy. Especially the ones on twitter. I am sure most will strongly protest. Louisville/Baylor and Harvard/Stanford are up their as far as upset goes. SC will be favored but it would be single digits against Stanford, UConn, and possibly Indiana.

I meant schools/teams/media. Geno said he doesn’t expect UConn to get out of the first weekend this week on his show so I doubt they’d put up much of a stink. Idk other programs outlooks though.

 

[BobbyJ]

I’m not sure there have been actually? Maybe on the mens side? I think if people canceled the tournament and gave South Carolina no one would put up a fight. Or at least not much of one.

Maybe non-competitive fans on a couch like you wouldn’t care but you won’t find a player, coach, or real competitor that would ever concede a game or tournament without playing. Get serious.

 

[hoophuskee]

South Carolina is just going to play man.

Yes - if my post suggested otherwise that wasn;t the inetnt. I did make a comment about Muhl - a post somewhere someone suggested that Muhl was overplayed and the same could happen in this game. But an overplay is usually still man-to-man. I was j just suggesting that it be highly doubtful (i.e my comment : "try it . . .) that SC would do that overplay on specifically Muhl this time around if UCONN is healthy and they play in the finals.

 

[FormerCTrez]

I tell myself not to think this far because there’s a lot of basketball to be played between now and that potential meet-up. Yet, here I am, this Saturday morning, reading the Boneyarders’ comments, and forcing myself not to engage in the dialogue. It’s truly a difficult personal restraint.
Go UCONN! Have fun while playing smart and staying healthy.

 

[BRS24]

Some thoughts in my head, and in a spreadsheet (LOL) will stay there until we get further into the tourney, especially after reading the NYT article and McGraw's comments.

 

[azfan]

Why are they low probability IFs, or are you just hoping they are low probability ifs? Lou and Aaliyah both played like they were in January the last three games and Azzi was a couple of centimeters off her jump shot from being close to November form. If we make it to the sweet sixteen I'd put the odds around 70% chance of Azzi being back to early season form- at that point she would be back close to a month and have played 5 games of varying competition. The rust should be gone.

If we do meet South Carolina again it will mean that Azzi is back to November form which means it will be the toughest team South Carolina will have had to face all year. Fingers crossed we get the rematch.

Today more than a couple? . Vermont defense? .

Her defense was solid (although it is . . . Vermont), she boarded well (although...)

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Today more than a couple? . Vermont defense? .

Her defense was solid (although it is . . . Vermont), she boarded well (although...)

Her shots were in and out today. If you want to keep betting on Azzi not hitting wide open shots I wish you luck with that endeavor. Obviously the Spector of Azzi scares you for some reason. Not sure what that would be.

 

[hoophuskee]

Today more than a couple? . Vermont defense? .

Her defense was solid (although it is . . . Vermont), she boarded well (although...)

Would it matter if she went 8-10 from 3? Then the talk would have been "It's just Vermont." Or . . . "She can't keep it up . . ."