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[QUOTE="auror, post: 4805014, member: 1329"]
All NBA internal shot quality models take into account variable offensive rebound chance, I guarantee you. They have historical data, player movement and tracking data. The models aren't perfect, but you're way underestimating what teams have. I mean if they don't, they can just buy a ShotQuality subscription (which does include that). But there's a reason that site is college emphasizing, because most colleges don't have full analytics teams.

The problem is that it's a lot harder to get offensive rebounds in the NBA vs. College. The guys defensively rebounding are all beasts. This is why most NBA teams decided it wasn't worth the tradeoff vs. transition defense. It honestly feels like you're the one not taking into account the continual nature of basketball. Optimizing for offensive rebounding reduces your transition defense, and NBA teams with their fast and fluid athletes are absolutely lethal in transition if you're not prepared defensively.

In certain matchups, offensive rebounding can swing a game or series, but that's pretty rare.
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