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Saint Mary's: 27-7
KenPom Rating: 12
NET ranking: 11
2-3 vs Q1 ; 7-2 vs Q2
Best WinKenPom Rating: 12
NET ranking: 11
2-3 vs Q1 ; 7-2 vs Q2
- 2/4/23 78-70 over Gonzaga in OT
- Mahaney, 18 points, 7-11 from 2, 1-8 from 3
- Team shot 59.5 2p%, 25.0 3p%
Worst Loss:
- 3/7/23 77-51 to Gonzaga
- Mahaney, 7 points, 2-8 from the field
- Team shot 37.8 2p%, 25.0 3p%
OFFENSE: 42nd in efficiency
- 3rd slowest tempo in the nation (20.4 seconds/possession)
- 10th in preventing steals
- 45th in offensive rebounding rate
- 64th with a 36.3 3p%
- 198th in 3PA/FGA (36.9%)
- 148th with a 51.0 2p%
- 167th in FTA/FGA (31.8%)
- 277th with a 69.3 ft%
- 225th in A/FGM (49.0%)
- 293th in preventing blocks (10.2%)
DEFENSE: 8th in efficiency
- 2nd in defensive rebounding rate
- 3rd lowest A/FGM (36.6%)
- 18th in opp. 2p% (45.4%)
- 27th in 3PA/FGA (31.7%)
- 103rd in opp. 3p% (32.8%)
- 72nd in steal rate (10.6%)
- 102nd in block rate (10.2%)
- 140th in quickest opp. Avg length of possession (17.5 sec)
- 159th in FTA/FGA (30.3)
- 324th in opp. ft% (74.8%)
Mark Few and Gonzaga get all the national buzz, but Randy Bennett has been quietly doing his thing at Saint Mary’s for 21 years, leading the Gaels, go figure after playing Iona, to nine tournament selections and four in the last six seasons.
Aside from a 9 point loss and a 26 point loss to Gonzaga, part of the reason of the Gaels’ strong KP and NET rankings is that all of Saint Mary’s losses have been by 5 points or less, highlighted by a 53-48 loss to Houston.
Over the last decade or so, Randy Bennett coached Saint Mary’s teams shoot well, but don’t really attack the basket, limit turnovers and play very slowly: case in point, since the 2013-14 season, the Gaels’ highest ranking in offensive tempo was 324th. This has resulting in low scoring games, with opponents scoring 70 or more points in just five games, two of which were in OT.
On defense, typical Bennett coach teams are elite at defensive rebounding, preventing three-point attempts and make it really hard for teams to move the ball smoothly, ranking within the top-four in forcing ISO attempts in each of the last four seasons and top-six in fourteen seasons of Bennett’s tenure.
What makes Bennett such a good coach is that while he has his signatures, he is flexible in other ways. For example, between the 2010-11 and 2016-17 seasons, the Gaels had a low-ISO, three-point heavy offensive attack, which looks very different than his teams since then.
The buzziest player on the Gaels is freshman guard Aidan Mahaney. He’s a flashy, wiry guard with an impressive handle, smooth stroke and offensive creativity to make mind-boggling passes. Between 11/24 and 2/8, Mahaney averaged 15.4 ppg at 47 FG% and scored single digits in only one game, but he’s in the middle of a five game slump, scoring nine points or less in four of the last five games, shooting a frigid 24.1% from inside the arc.
During that stretch, the Gaels have played three quality teams (Gonzaga twice, BYU and VCU), so I’m curious whether this slump is a freshman succumbing to the pressure of the big moment or whether it’s the result of playing better, older teams. No matter how it shakes, he’s been doo doo with the nadir being last night where foul trouble kept him scoreless and on the bench for the majority of the game.
Soaking up all of Mahaney’s minutes last night was sophomore guard Augustas Marciulionis, a bigger guard who plays a very different game: better defender, longer, stronger and focuses his offensive game away from the perimeter with the team’s highest FTA rate and second highest fouls drawn/40 rate (4.9). He’s a high-floor, lower ceiling guard than the mercurial Mahaney, subbing Marciulionis in for Mahaney leaves the Gaels with just two efficient three-point shooters (Ducas and Bowen).
Even though all of Saint Mary’s regulars have good vision, pass well and limit TOs, the de facto point guard is fifth-year Logan Johnson, easily the team’s best bucket getter and generator of his own offense. He’s not afraid to play downhill with the trees, but he is also the team’s smallest guard at 6’2 177. After taking just 26 3PAs across his first two seasons, now teams at least have to respect his three-point shot, but he is not an asset on the perimeter. Over the last three seasons, Johnson has averaged just 2.9 3PAs per game at 29.6%. Johnson was the WCC Defensive Player of the Year, whose scrappy, in-your-face style was on display last night.
Alex Ducas impressed me last night: he’s Saint Mary’s best perimeter weapon both in his shooting and distributing ability. He’s a low-mistake, efficient offensive wing with the team’s second best offensive rating (120.3) that also ranked 116th in the nation, but he is also no slouch on D with size, length, energy and sound fundamentals.
Mitchell Saxen is a classic, low-post big who was a capable passer in 5-out situations, but he is not a shooter. From my notes, none of his FGAs from last night were further than five feet from the basket but after the Gaels shot 36 FG% and 9 3p% at the half, Saxen’s offensive rebounding kept Saint Mary’s in the game.
I spent probably the most time focusing on Saxen, as I am very intrigued in how our 1-2 punch of Sanogo/Clingan will play against him, especially after he played 38 minutes last night. He’s strong, but has slower feet than most, if not, all of the bigs in the Big East.
Saxen was great last night (17 points on 8-11 shooting, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 blocks) but VCU doesn’t play bigs: 6’9 215 Jalen DeLoach started and after Ace Baldwin went down with injury and VCU needed points, two of VCU’s best shooters, 6’8 240 Brandon Johns and 6’6 220 David Shriver, played the 5 and the 4, leaving Saxen in a juicy matchup taking advantage of their last of strength and defensive ability.
In keeping Sanogo and Clingan fresh, I see a huge advantage for UConn: either Saxen cannot play 38 minutes again, or if he does, no way he’ll be as dominant as he was against VCU.
Last but not least is Kyle Bowen, the Gaels’ best defensive forward and their glue guy. He’s not super athletic, but he always has his nose in on defense, with bullish strength and generally just takes up a lot of space. He’s got a really ugly one-handed outside shot, but somehow shoots 46.3% from three. I can see Bowen relish the opportunity to hound Karaban all night.
Yes, Saint Mary’s defense looked very impressive in person, but VCU’s offense is pretty ugly in itself, so it was hard to believe what was their style and what was a mirage due to the matchup.
In terms of matchups, there is an advantage to whoever is being guarded by Mahaney: he’s quick, but skinny and clearly the Gaels weakest defender, however, after he crapped the bed last night, I could see Bennett giving the stronger, less mistake-prone and bigger Marciulionis close to the same amount of PT tomorrow, especially since UConn is much bigger than VCU.
Personally, I think Saint Mary’s is underseeded as a 5 and UConn is underseeded as a 4, so it is a very good matchup. Like the VCU game, the team that gets to 60 first will probably win. Randy Bennett has really whittled down his rotation to six plus picking and choosing the other four players defending on matchups, so UConn has the clear advantage on depth.
KenPom’s prediction: UConn wins 66-63.
