Rumor du Jour

[nelsonmuntz]

This sounds like a circular rumor.

-A radio station hints at Florida State going to the Big12.
-MHver3 picks it up on Twitter.
-The West Virginia Conference Talk board picks up.
-Briefly mentioned on sports talk radio.

I've gotten to the point that unless it's coming from McMurphy, I'm not paying it any attention.

McMurphy tells you what already happened.

MHver3 did say that the Big 10 was going to expand, and he laid down on the tracks on that rumor over the summer. He only got 1 of the 4 predicted additions correct, and missed Rutgers, but I will give him a little credit for at least calling the Big 10 to add some schools and not backing down.

He is just saying there is momentum now, not that anything is even imminent. As I have said before, I think MHver3's source for all things ACC is an insider on the FSU Rivals board that must feed MHver3 rumors, so all he has is one school's perspective on expansion.

 

[RMoore1999]

FWIW, bcu to B1G is getting a lot love in twitter land...

I'm surprised anyone here is surprised about FSU to B12. Just a matter of time. What would be the argument in favor of them staying in the acc? The reason they havent left yet is they're holding out hope the SEC will come calling (which wont happen as long as VTCH and UNC/NCST are on the board, and even then it would be unlikely).

 

[Jericho]

Then you are missing my ultimate point, which was tv money. Whether or not either of those aforementioned teams delivers a certain city or a portion of a certain state is only part of the equation. The fact of the matter is that all of those teams have significant fanbases (someone had posted a listing on another thread, but I'm not sure where). So that, coupled with the fact that the networks supporting the Big12 would love to have further penetration into Florida, Georgia, etc., and it's easy to see what the driver of this is. Again, in case anyone has missed it; it's money!

(the original discussion was improved football product versus tv money being the driver for acquisition, if indeed this move came to pass)

Well of course money drives it all. That's pretty much a no-brainer. I don't think that has to be stated. No conference is expanding unless it feels it can make them more money.

The point is how much money do these schools make? FSU and too a lesser extent Clemson should make money because they have passionate fan bases that are more SEC like. Miami and Georgia Tech are less clear. They merely exist in highly populated areas. Neither GT or Miami have proven they have large, dedicated fan bases (In Tech's case is lack of hardcore fans, in Miami's case its fair weather fans).

Look, here's the bottom line point. FSU to the Big 12 makes sense for both sides. FSU would make more money in the Big 12 (but not SEC or Big 10 money). The Big 12 should make more money with FSU. But despite a year of rumors, it has not happened. That tells me that at least one of the parties is not on board. This leaves you see options:

(1) Neither party wants the other one. We'll call this mutual disinterest. In this scenario, you need both sides to change their mind; or

(2) Big 12 said no to FSU. It's hard for me to see a conference desperate to add TCU and West Virginia saying no to a better school than both of them. Sure, it's possible this is what happened. But I don't see it being likely. Even if some say they're happy at 10, you make room for a Florida State. Any school that's not Oklahoma or Texas should be ecstatic if FSU wanted in. It solidifies what was a real shaky conference; or

(3) FSU said no to the Big 12. I find this much more likely and plausible. Comments from FSU higher ups, like their own President, evidence the fact many don't want to move. If FSU did say no when it had full disclosure of both ACC and Big 12 contracts, then I don't see anything that's changed since then that will make FSU change their mind. Something needs to happen to make the ACC weaker or the Big 12 stronger to revisit this decision.

 

[Oxford Bob]

FSU wants the ACC to stick together. Their best chance to win a conference and go to the BCS Champ. game is in the ACC. Now they are in a tough spot, if UNC, UVA, NC ST or Va Tech leave they face the chance of being stuck in the league with a bunch of Big East teams if they say no to the Big 12. The SEC doesn't want them and they don't fit in the B!G. They are hoping the B!G makes a move before they have to decide what to do.

 

[RMoore1999]

FSU wants the ACC to stick together. Their best chance to win a conference and go to the BCS Champ. game is in the ACC. Now they are in a tough spot, if UNC, UVA, NC ST or Va Tech leave they face the chance of being stuck in the league with a bunch of Big East teams if they say no to the Big 12. The SEC doesn't want them and they don't fit in the B!G. They are hoping the B!G makes a move before they have to decide what to do.

It will be the very rare year that the ACC champ cracks a 4-team playoff. FSU is likely in the process of trying to negotiate the best deal possible with the B12, and they need another acc school to join with them, so they need the B12 to determine the other school from Miami, Clemson or GTCH.

 

[UConnDan97]

Well of course money drives it all. That's pretty much a no-brainer. I don't think that has to be stated. No conference is expanding unless it feels it can make them more money.

The point is how much money do these schools make? FSU and too a lesser extent Clemson should make money because they have passionate fan bases that are more SEC like. Miami and Georgia Tech are less clear. They merely exist in highly populated areas. Neither GT or Miami have proven they have large, dedicated fan bases (In Tech's case is lack of hardcore fans, in Miami's case its fair weather fans).

Look, here's the bottom line point. FSU to the Big 12 makes sense for both sides. FSU would make more money in the Big 12 (but not SEC or Big 10 money). The Big 12 should make more money with FSU. But despite a year of rumors, it has not happened. That tells me that at least one of the parties is not on board. This leaves you see options:

(1) Neither party wants the other one. We'll call this mutual disinterest. In this scenario, you need both sides to change their mind; or

(2) Big 12 said no to FSU. It's hard for me to see a conference desperate to add TCU and West Virginia saying no to a better school than both of them. Sure, it's possible this is what happened. But I don't see it being likely. Even if some say they're happy at 10, you make room for a Florida State. Any school that's not Oklahoma or Texas should be ecstatic if FSU wanted in. It solidifies what was a real shaky conference; or

(3) FSU said no to the Big 12. I find this much more likely and plausible. Comments from FSU higher ups, like their own President, evidence the fact many don't want to move. If FSU did say no when it had full disclosure of both ACC and Big 12 contracts, then I don't see anything that's changed since then that will make FSU change their mind. Something needs to happen to make the ACC weaker or the Big 12 stronger to revisit this decision.

First, don't underestimate the need to state that which should be a no-brainer.

Second, your scenarios all avoid one major thing; that the two parties may still be negotiating. That's what this whole thread is about. Could it be that the 50 million exit clause is being worked out or waited on from the lawsuit with Maryland? Could it be that they are working out issues dealing with the GOR? Could it be that they are waiting to hear if there are one or more "traveling partners" involved? I would not make any certain assumptions as to why the deal hasn't happened yet, other than to say it hasn't happened yet. If conference realignment has taught me anything, it's that money can make some strange bed-fellows...

 

[RealCT12]

It will be the very rare year that the ACC champ cracks a 4-team playoff. FSU is likely in the process of trying to negotiate the best deal possible with the B12, and they need another acc school to join with them, so they need the B12 to determine the other school from Miami, Clemson or GTCH.

Exactly. You can bet that the SEC gets at least 2 of 4 playoff spots every year. That leaves 2 spots for the PAC, B1G, and Big12. Right now, the Big12 champ wouldn't even qualify for the playoff. There's no way the ACC champ gets in. The computer ranking component would barely have an ACC team in the BCS top ten. If FSU wants a chance at the playoff, they need to get out of the ACC.

 

[Oxford Bob]

Exactly. You can bet that the SEC gets at least 2 of 4 playoff spots every year. That leaves 2 spots for the PAC, B1G, and Big12. Right now, the Big12 champ wouldn't even qualify for the playoff. There's no way the ACC champ gets in. The computer ranking component would barely have an ACC team in the BCS top ten. If FSU wants a chance at the playoff, they need to get out of the ACC.

Then under your scenario ND should just go join a conference because they will never have a chance to be 1 of the 4 spots. We see every year FSU gets over-rated to start the year, in a weak ACC if they start the year near/in the top 10 they will have a shot of making one of the 4 spots if they go unbeaten.

 

[RealCT12]

Then under your scenario ND should just go join a conference because they will never have a chance to be 1 of the 4 spots. We see every year FSU gets over-rated to start the year, in a weak ACC if they start the year near/in the top 10 they will have a shot of making one of the 4 spots if they go unbeaten.

Notre Dame is an anomaly. If they ever have a good year, their prestige alone will propel them to the top. The ACC is too weak a conference to put them in the playoff. Even before FSU's loss to Florida (when FSU was 10-1), they were ranked 17th in the computers. The only way FSU would make a playoff in the ACC is if they go undefeated, whereas a one or two loss SEC team or Notre Dame would still be able to get in.

 

[Oxford Bob]

That's my point, an undefeated FSU team can get to the final 4 from the ACC. I don't think they will be able to get there in the Big 12.

 

[RMoore1999]

Then under your scenario ND should just go join a conference because they will never have a chance to be 1 of the 4 spots. We see every year FSU gets over-rated to start the year, in a weak ACC if they start the year near/in the top 10 they will have a shot of making one of the 4 spots if they go unbeaten.

Actually, I've expressed around here many times that ND joining the acc in football is about the only thing that will save the league, as that's the one name that ESPN will substantially pay more for narrowing the $$ gap between acc and the Big 4 for FLST and the other acc football schools.

But, since that's highly unlikely to happen in the near future, I think FLST will be in the B12 sooner rather than later.

 

[RealCT12]

If Alabama went 12-0,
Oregon went 12-0,
KState went 12-0,
Ohio State was eligible at 12-0,
and Florida State went 12-0:

Here Florida State would be number 5 due to having the weakest conference. One loss SEC teams would probably even be in over an undefeated ACC team. Are all these undefeated teams likely to happen? Probably not, but it shows how not being in one of the top 4 conferences can hurt your odds.

 

[RealCT12]

That's my point, an undefeated FSU team can get to the final 4 from the ACC. I don't think they will be able to get there in the Big 12.

My point is a one loss FSU in the Big12 has a better shot at getting in than a one loss FSU in the ACC.

 

[Oxford Bob]

Actually, I've expressed around here many times that ND joining the acc in football is about the only thing that will save the league, as that's the one name that ESPN will substantially pay more for narrowing the $$ gap between acc and the Big 4 for FLST and the other acc football schools.

But, since that's highly unlikely to happen in the near future, I think FLST will be in the B12 sooner rather than later.

I agree. I think Pres. Barron is trying to maintain the southern ties the school has and won't have in the big 12. However, in the end the money will be too great for them to pass up.

 

[tzznandrew]

If Alabama went 12-0,
Oregon went 12-0,
KState went 12-0,
Ohio State was eligible at 12-0,
and Florida State went 12-0:

Here Florida State would be number 5 due to having the weakest conference. One loss SEC teams would probably even be in over an undefeated ACC team. Are all these undefeated teams likely to happen? Probably not, but it shows how not being in one of the top 4 conferences can hurt your odds.

The week before they lost, FSU was #4 in the coaches poll. They were ahead of a number of undefeated B12 and SEC teams (only LSU, Oregon, and Alabama were ahead of them). If they won out, including beating Florida, they'd be playing ND in the championship game.

Since so much is the Coaches/Harris poll, its more about where you start than anything else (if there is more than one undefeated team). FSU's issue is that they play Florida at the end of the year, so a loss makes it un-recoverable. If they played it week 1 and lost, they'd still have a chance.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

FWIW, bcu to B1G is getting a lot love in twitter land...

I just checked the sky outside my house. No pigs.

 

[Oxford Bob]

My point is a one loss FSU in the Big12 has a better shot at getting in than a one loss FSU in the ACC.

Totally agree with that. My feeling is it will be easier for them to go unbeaten in the ACC, then it will to be a 1 or even 2 loss team in big 12.

Here is the major sticking point of the big/final 4 (or whatever they call it). Are they just going to take the 4 conference champions, or are they taking the top 4 in the final BCS? My guess is that at least one of the big 4 conferences (SEC) will continually have multiple teams in the top 4 of the BCS, then include ND on very good years and 2 big boys get left out.

 

[RealCT12]

I see where you're coming from Bob. I just think FSU has to jump if they get the chance or they could be stuck if all hell breaks loose. The problem is that even in a weak ACC, they still can't manage to go undefeated. They will recruit a lot better in the Big12 to be able to compete with those teams.

 

[ctchamps]

Totally agree with that. My feeling is it will be easier for them to go unbeaten in the ACC, then it will to be a 1 or even 2 loss team in big 12.

Here is the major sticking point of the big/final 4 (or whatever they call it). Are they just going to take the 4 conference champions, or are they taking the top 4 in the final BCS? My guess is that at least one of the big 4 conferences (SEC) will continually have multiple teams in the top 4 of the BCS, then include ND on very good years and 2 big boys get left out.

They get two chances to prove themselves every year - dominate the ACC and beat a decent Florida team. If they do that they will be playoff bound. If they don't do that then they don't deserve to be playoff bound.

 

[junglehusky]

Welp, it's on orangebloods. Texas/Chip Brown trying to shake the tree and see what falls out - hoping for Notre Dame?

 

[Jericho]

I see where you're coming from Bob. I just think FSU has to jump if they get the chance or they could be stuck if all hell breaks loose. The problem is that even in a weak ACC, they still can't manage to go undefeated. They will recruit a lot better in the Big12 to be able to compete with those teams.

Doubtful. FSU is one of the prize schools out there. It's not like musical chairs where you got a grab a seat immediately. FSU's powerful enough they can let things play out.

Also, recruiting has never been FSU's problem. They recruit really well. It's virtually impossible for them to recruit better. What they need is a real coach. Cause right now they can't even beat the ACC schools consistently.

 

[Jericho]

Totally agree with that. My feeling is it will be easier for them to go unbeaten in the ACC, then it will to be a 1 or even 2 loss team in big 12.

Here is the major sticking point of the big/final 4 (or whatever they call it). Are they just going to take the 4 conference champions, or are they taking the top 4 in the final BCS? My guess is that at least one of the big 4 conferences (SEC) will continually have multiple teams in the top 4 of the BCS, then include ND on very good years and 2 big boys get left out.

Another fair point. I don't think it's been firmly decided who gets selected for the playoffs, but it sounds like its a committee and not polls. So the BCS will go out the window. What factors the committee uses remains to be seen. I tend to think there will be a preference for conference champs. Meaning a non-champion needs to clearly show its better than other options. And that's difficult to do in such small seasons.

It's certainly true that FSU will have an easier time winning the ACC than the Big 12. We've seen OSU and then KSU stumble against lower tier opponents in the Big 12 in recent years. The Big 12 is strong in football, aided by the large presence in Texas. I think the worry is that FSU turns into West Virginia, i.e. just another team.

An undefeated FSU in the ACC will have no problem making a playoffs. A one loss FSU team will potentially have some issues, depending on the loss and the other schools that year.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Welp, it's on orangebloods. Texas/Chip Brown trying to shake the tree and see what falls out - hoping for Notre Dame?

Given that UT's athletic department approves everything Chip puts up on his blog, this is a pretty powerful confirmation of the rumors.

 

[Marty Jackson]

If Alabama went 12-0,
Oregon went 12-0,
KState went 12-0,
Ohio State was eligible at 12-0,
and Florida State went 12-0:

Here Florida State would be number 5 due to having the weakest conference. One loss SEC teams would probably even be in over an undefeated ACC team. Are all these undefeated teams likely to happen? Probably not, but it shows how not being in one of the top 4 conferences can hurt your odds.

not that simple... OOC games would matter.

 

[RealCT12]

Doubtful. FSU is one of the prize schools out there. It's not like musical chairs where you got a grab a seat immediately. FSU's powerful enough they can let things play out.

Also, recruiting has never been FSU's problem. They recruit really well. It's virtually impossible for them to recruit better. What they need is a real coach. Cause right now they can't even beat the ACC schools consistently.

What conference really considers FSU a prize? The only conference that wants FSU other than the ACC is the Big12. Florida would block them in the SEC/SEC doesn't need them to increase market, they're too academically inferior for the B1G, and too far for the PAC.

FSU will definitely recruit better. They get to increase their profile playing up to 4 Texas schools. Go to their roster profile on ESPN and see that they have exactly 3 players from Texas. The vast majority of their team is from the state of Florida with Georgia being second. If FSU was recruiting really well, they'd have a more nationally diverse team.

 

[RealCT12]

Another fair point. I don't think it's been firmly decided who gets selected for the playoffs, but it sounds like its a committee and not polls. So the BCS will go out the window. What factors the committee uses remains to be seen. I tend to think there will be a preference for conference champs. Meaning a non-champion needs to clearly show its better than other options. And that's difficult to do in such small seasons.

It's certainly true that FSU will have an easier time winning the ACC than the Big 12. We've seen OSU and then KSU stumble against lower tier opponents in the Big 12 in recent years. The Big 12 is strong in football, aided by the large presence in Texas. I think the worry is that FSU turns into West Virginia, i.e. just another team.

An undefeated FSU in the ACC will have no problem making a playoffs. A one loss FSU team will potentially have some issues, depending on the loss and the other schools that year.

Yes a committee decides and due to strength of schedule and peoples' high perception of the SEC, you can bet 2 SEC teams will make the playoffs every year. That leaves 2 spots for 4 conferences champions (not even including a good notre dame). The only way FSU gets in is if they go undefeated.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Yes a committee decides and due to strength of schedule and peoples' high perception of the SEC, you can bet 2 SEC teams will make the playoffs every year. That leaves 2 spots for 4 conferences champions (not even including a good notre dame). The only way FSU gets in is if they go undefeated.

I don't think it is quite that simple. It is worth noting that the bottom 8 SEC schools did not win a single game against the Top 6. And Alabama and Georgia both avoided playing either of the top 3 programs in the other division until the SEC Championship. In other words, the two schools that had the easiest schedule in each division won the league, and one of them is going to the National Championship game. Each of the Top 6 programs went 1-1 against each of the other top programs in their own division.

The bottom half of the SEC is not that good. The only quality wins from the bottom half of the league were Tennessee over NC State, Kentucky over Kent State and Missouri over Arizona State. That's it.

As for FSU, they have the clearest path to an undefeated season of any top program in the country, outside of maybe Boise State. What are the chances that Alabama or LSU go undefeated in any given year? How about Oregon in the Pac 12 North with Stanford and Oregon State? Or Kansas State or Texas playing a full round robin against the rest of the Big 12?

 

[RealCT12]

I don't think it is quite that simple. It is worth noting that the bottom 8 SEC schools did not win a single game against the Top 6. And Alabama and Georgia both avoided playing either of the top 3 programs in the other division until the SEC Championship. In other words, the two schools that had the easiest schedule in each division won the league, and one of them is going to the National Championship game. Each of the Top 6 programs went 1-1 against each of the other top programs in their own division.

The bottom half of the SEC is not that good. The only quality wins from the bottom half of the league were Tennessee over NC State, Kentucky over Kent State and Missouri over Arizona State. That's it.

As for FSU, they have the clearest path to an undefeated season of any top program in the country, outside of maybe Boise State. What are the chances that Alabama or LSU go undefeated in any given year? How about Oregon in the Pac 12 North with Stanford and Oregon State? Or Kansas State or Texas playing a full round robin against the rest of the Big 12?

I'm not saying the SEC is top to bottom the best conference, but it's all about perception. That is why the SEC has 6 teams in the top 10 BCS. With this type of perception, Alabama, LSU, or any team in the SEC don't have to be undefeated to make a playoff or play for a national championship.

 

[Vowelguy]

I'm not saying the SEC is top to bottom the best conference, but it's all about perception. That is why the SEC has 6 teams in the top 10 BCS. With this type of perception, Alabama, LSU, or any team in the SEC don't have to be undefeated to make a playoff or play for a national championship.

No, perception is not everything. The BCS computers have SEC teams at #2, #3, #7, #8.

FSU is helped, not hurt, by perception, as its #12 in the polls but #16 in the computers.

 

[RealCT12]

No, perception is not everything. The BCS computers have SEC teams at #2, #3, #7, #8.

FSU is helped, not hurt, by perception, as its #12 in the polls but #16 in the computers.

And yet in all three polls that determine the rankings, FSU (11-2) is ranked behind all the other two-loss SEC teams. That's even in spite of the fact that FSU won its conference and the other two loss SEC teams didn't. I'd say perception has something to do with that.