Ruh Roh... the BE might be getting an unpleasant SURPRISE

[junglehusky]

NOTE TO CARL SPACKLER: IGNORE IGNORE IGNORE THIS MESSAGE

Speculation on the market value that the NNBE can get in this McMurphy article... he cites one guy who thinks it'll be over $130 million (good) but also cites "industry sources" (i.e., Carl's moles / conspiracy kitty's mysterious puppet masters) who say it could be less... a lot less. If true this could accelerate the run for the exits.

The Big East's best hopes are that ESPN and NBC/Comcast get in a bidding war to drive the price up. But industry sources said network executives wouldn't go beyond "the 60s [million dollars]."
Is it possible those executives are minimizing the Big East's value as part of a multimillion-dollar poker game or that's the actual worth of the league? The Big East is getting ready to find out.

Does the ACC deal still look bad now?

But never fear... just #ClapHarder and I'm sure the value will go up!

 

[ConnHuskBask]

BUT...BUT...THE MEDIA MARKETS!

 

[lv99]

Hopefully, our negotiating team is up to the task. We need to play hardball. We need to think ahead and be shrewd. When they make the offer, we need to keep our poker faces on and tell them to double it.

 

[MattMang23]

When it comes to college football, Lincoln, NE is a much better media market than anyone we've imported. Why? BECAUSE THEY GIVE A duck* ABOUT COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES AND THEY CARE WHEN THE TEAM RESIDING IN THEIR CITY PLAYS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES.

duck the Big East. Collecting "media markets" like they're ducking stamps or some ...

(Not directed at you ConnHuskBask, I know where you stand on this. Just venting.)

 

[Kevin Caliendo]

guys, the fact that marinatto was fired just after the first rounds of talks with the TV execs told you the numbers they were hearing were awful. Amongst the many blunders of the Providence peeps and presidents was turning down the first contract and someone had to pay for this. the thing is, how can you negotiate a TV deal when the most meaningful teams left in the conference are all looking to leave? I would lowball as well if I was NBC/ESPN/Fox/GolTV/Lifetime/Nickelodeon

 

[UConnDan97]

guys, the fact that marinatto was fired just after the first rounds of talks with the TV execs told you the numbers they were hearing were awful.

If that were the real reason that Marinatto was asked to get out of Dodge, then Boise and SDSU would have already announced back to the Mountain West, since they would only stand to gain about 2 million more and then stand to lose it back on travel budgets and lower tiered Olympic sports.

 

[UCFBfan]

NOTE TO CARL SPACKLER: IGNORE IGNORE IGNORE THIS MESSAGE

Speculation on the market value that the NNBE can get in this McMurphy article... he cites one guy who thinks it'll be over $130 million (good) but also cites "industry sources" (i.e., Carl's moles / conspiracy kitty's mysterious puppet masters) who say it could be less... a lot less. If true this could accelerate the run for the exits.

Don't worry though. according to people on this board, we should hold strong in the NBE and just wait for that B1G offer. The ACC just isn't worth it......come on! UConn will be making NOTHING, NOTHING!!! in this new conference that has been put together. TV execs aren't dumb and can easily figure out that people in Houston and Dallas will still be watching the UT game of any BE game. People in Tampa and Orlando will be watching FSU/Florida/hell Miami over a BE game. People is San Diego will be watching the UCLA or USC or whatever Pac-12 game is on instead of a BE game. Shall I go on.....

The only reason the BE will get more money than the MWC is because TV execs want their basketball product, and even that is starting to wane......

UConn needs the ACC more than it needs the NBE.....

 

[UConnDan97]

NOTE TO CARL SPACKLER: IGNORE IGNORE IGNORE THIS MESSAGE

Speculation on the market value that the NNBE can get in this McMurphy article... he cites one guy who thinks it'll be over $130 million (good) but also cites "industry sources" (i.e., Carl's moles / conspiracy kitty's mysterious puppet masters) who say it could be less... a lot less. If true this could accelerate the run for the exits.



Does the ACC deal still look bad now?

But never fear... just #ClapHarder and I'm sure the value will go up!

There is literally nothing new in this article. I guess the only thing that is new is that McMurphy talked to yet another analyst, and this one said the deal could be good....or bad...

No $#it! I think that we have reached the point where the media wants to keep the high level of interest going, but they don't know what to write about anymore, besides sheer speculation; the same speculation that we have all been hearing for months. Will the deal be good? I have no friggin' idea, but I know that McMurphy doesn't know either.

 

[CL82]

This might be a good time listen to Carl. Reread the article to see that the only named source believes that the new deal could surpass the $130 million previously offered. The naysayers in the article are unnamed "industry sources". Unnamed often equals unreliable.

A careful reading of the article shows that the "new deal" that they are referring to is the "renegotiations with ESPN for the league's media rights deal". So what the article appears to say is that ESPN will offer less than it's rejected deal during the renegotiation period. What's more the article itself suggests that that assertion might just be posturing:

The Big East's best hopes are that ESPN and NBC/Comcast get in a bidding war to drive the price up. But industry sources said network executives wouldn't go beyond "the 60s [million dollars]." Is it possible those executives are minimizing the Big East's value as part of a multimillion-dollar poker game or that's the actual worth of the league? The Big East is getting ready to find out.

If this is the best you've got to assert that league's value is down the toilet, well somehow, I'm not any more concerned than I was before I read the amazingly vague article that you seem oddly joyful about.

If schadenfreude is pleasure derived from the misfortunes of others, what is the word for a person's joy at his own misfortune? I'm not sure but a good guess might be: "Dschungelschlittenhund".

I guess we'll see what the league's value will be come the end of year (ESPN has a 60 day negotiation window starting in September). As Connecticut fan, I'm going to hope for the best, but in the meantime feel free to #WhineHarder if that's what floats your boat.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Industry sources (at ESPN) think the Big East will be sorry for turning down the deal last year. Got it.

The bitter ex-girlfriend act is unbecoming.

 

[junglehusky]

Part of the negotiation strategy may be a hedge in case UConn/Rutgers/Louisville bolts.

In the end, it might not matter whether the industry sources (ESPN) are full of * or not. All it takes is one of Louisville, UConn or Rutgers to believe the lowball and poof! Self-fulfilling prophecy. Yeah it's the bitter ex-girlfriend routine but sometimes she is successful in her efforts, no matter what you do. It's a prisoners dillema and they just upped the ante.

 

[Dann]

Industry sources (at ESPN) think the Big East will be sorry for turning down the deal last year. Got it.

The bitter ex-girlfriend act is unbecoming.

Exactly right. To all here that don't like my stance of nbe vs acc I think u need to wait and see the numbers first. If the acc is 7mil more then yea it's a no brainier but if not then we will see what happens.

Swiffird didn't listen to Espn and now they are paying the price. Don't let Espn spook u.

 

[UConnDan97]

All it takes is one of Louisville, UConn or Rutgers to believe the lowball and poof!

Ummm.....that, and an invitation, right? The cart is pullin' the horse, now.

 

[SAMCRO]

Ummm.....that, and an invitation, right? The cart is pullin' the horse, now.

Stupid horse. We need a better horse.

 

[Jericho]

A summary from the article

Based on a future 14-member football league (in 2015, the Big East adds Navy as a football-only member and has plans to add a 14th school, preferably Air Force or BYU) and an 18-member basketball league, the media rights deal would be worth the following amounts per school annually:

A $130 million deal per year (as speculated by Pilson) would be worth $8.66 million each for the 10 full members; $6.5 million each for the four football-only members (Boise State, San Diego State, Navy and TBA); and $2.16 million each for the eight non-football members.

A $60 million deal per year (as speculated by CBSSports.com’s sources, slightly better than their low end) would be worth $4 million each for the 10 full members; $3 million each to the four football-only members; and $1 million each to the eight non-football members.

 

[observer]

Hopefully, our negotiating team is up to the task. We need to play hardball. We need to think ahead and be shrewd. When they make the offer, we need to keep our poker faces on and tell them to double it.

and practice keeping that straight face while the ESPN folks are rolling on the floor laughing and wetting their pants.

The BE screwed the pooch by turning down the deal that would have kept Pitt, Syr and maybe WVU and TCU and the only consolation is that the hoops only schools who made it happen will now find out how little their vaunted hoops product is worth.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

I see the whiners and ACC homers are posting here in full force.

There are so many things wrong with his article it is so easy to pick apart. How come McMurphy never explain the following:

1. B12 lost A&M, Nebraska, Colorado and Missouri and got $5M raise per team by adding WVU and TCU? Where is the logic in that? WVU was offered $13.8M (based on ESPN's last offer) and now is worth $20M? TCU was getting paid $1.2M from MWC and now worth $20M?

2. ACC added SU and PITT and got $82M per year in raise? Pitt is worth $41M? SU is at $41M? So guys like McMurphy is trying to tell us Pitt and SU were 63% of the value based on ESPN's last offer of $130M? Who is on crack?

3. PAC-12 had a crappy deal like the BE and now all suddenly is worth $21M per year with UTAH and Colorado?

For the record, both Boise and SDSU hired real media consultants and their low end prediction for FB only member is $6.4M per year up to double digits. Those are paid consultants, not some anonymous sources like McMurphy is quoting. I guessing McMurphy's sources work for ESPN or someone with an interest low balling BE's media deal.

There is such thing called MARKET CONDITIONS McMurphy and his ESPN "anonymous" consultants did not take into consideration. BE will get a better deal than what was offered by ESPN. We just have to wait and see. Of course, this is based on BE staying intact. If ACC blows up, all hell will break loose and then McMurphy might have a clue.

 

[UConnDan97]

The BE screwed the pooch by turning down the deal that would have kept Pitt, Syr and maybe WVU and TCU

Can people PLEASE STOP PROPAGATING THIS LIE! It is already relatively well documented that Pitt's Mark Nordenberg LED THE CHARGE to turn down the deal, even by their own people's admissions! And if you think that the contract would have kept TCU from going to the Big12, essentially their "dream job" to quote a former coach, then you are as crazy as your post.

Whether or not accepting the deal was the right thing to do is up for debate. Whether or not it was going to keep Pitt or Syracuse, as well as TCU, is not up for debate. Period.

 

[uconnfan68]

When it comes to college football, Lincoln, NE is a much better media market than anyone we've imported. Why? BECAUSE THEY GIVE A duck* ABOUT COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES AND THEY CARE WHEN THE TEAM RESIDING IN THEIR CITY PLAYS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES.

duck the Big East. Collecting "media markets" like they're ducking stamps or some ...

(Not directed at you ConnHuskBask, I know where you stand on this. Just venting.)

How can you call Nebraska a media market when everyone there is actually at the game?

 

[Jericho]

I see the whiners and ACC homers are posting here in full force.

There are so many things wrong with his article it is so easy to pick apart. How come McMurphy never explain the following:

1. B12 lost A&M, Nebraska, Colorado and Missouri and got $5M raise per team by adding WVU and TCU? Where is the logic in that? WVU was offered $13.8M (based on ESPN's last offer) and now is worth $20M? TCU was getting paid $1.2M from MWC and now worth $20M?

2. ACC added SU and PITT and got $82M per year in raise? Pitt is worth $41M? SU is at $41M? So guys like McMurphy is trying to tell us Pitt and SU were 63% of the value based on ESPN's last offer of $130M? Who is on crack?

3. PAC-12 had a crappy deal like the BE and now all suddenly is worth $21M per year with UTAH and Colorado?

Those conferences all, attractive have good teams. The Big East has a compilation of former Mountain West and Con-USA squads. That's the difference

 

[Fishy]

Goes back to something I said the other day - there were no 'smiling faces' coming out of the network presentations made at the Big East meetings.

Unlike this board, the people in that meeting do not have their head's up their asses - they know that this is going to hurt and they know that the conference will lose more members.

 

[UConnDan97]

Goes back to something I said the other day - there were no 'smiling faces' coming out of the network presentations made at the Big East meetings.

Unlike this board, the people in that meeting do not have their head's up their asses - they know that this is going to hurt and they know that the conference will lose more members.

Fishy, you are always the first person to point out how bent out of shape people get on this board when they hear the first sign of a realignment rumor, and yet you are telling people they have their heads up their asses because you saw that nobody was smiling coming out of a meeting? Really??

Look, I will be the first person in line to tell you that I have zero clue what the NBE tv contract is going to be worth. In fact, I said as much in an earlier post in this string. But the people who say "This conference's tv contract is going to suck and everyone is going to leave" are just as reactionary and crazy as the ones who say "We are going to get a 2 billion dollar tv contract and then steal UNC and UVA away from the ACC!" Both sides are equally looney, in my opinion.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Goes back to something I said the other day - there were no 'smiling faces' coming out of the network presentations made at the Big East meetings.

Unlike this board, the people in that meeting do not have their head's up their asses - they know that this is going to hurt and they know that the conference will lose more members.

You are flat out wrong about the smiling faces. Here is the article by a guy who was there:

http://articles.orlandosentinel.com...er-john-marinatto-spring-meetings-new-tv-deal

PONTE VEDRA BEACH –​

​

Big East​

​

embattled veterans and eager newcomers said they feel confident about the league's future following the first day of spring meetings.​

Nothing may have done more to lift their spirits and unify the frazzled group than presentations​

​

NBC​

​

and​

Fox Sports​

​

Networks representatives made Monday at the Ponte Vedra Beach Inn and Club.​

​

ESPN​

​

also is attending the spring meetings and is slated to make its own pitch for continuing its partnership with the league.​

If that does not say smiling faces, I don't know what will.

Here is another article: http://www.tampabay.com/sports/colleges/big-east-maintains-optimistic-outlook-on-future/1231292

 

[Fishy]

At least someone was taken in by the spin...

UConn's not smiling - not even a little.

But if you'd like to keep sprinkling fairy dust on this mess, please, feel free. The reality of it will settle in on even the thickest of skulls at some point.

 

[UCFBfan]

Look, I will be the first person in line to tell you that I have zero clue what the NBE tv contract is going to be worth. In fact, I said as much in an earlier post in this string. But the people who say "This conference's tv contract is going to suck and everyone is going to leave" are just as reactionary and crazy as the ones who say "We are going to get a 2 billion dollar tv contract and then steal UNC and UVA away from the ACC!" Both sides are equally looney, in my opinion.

I don't think people are saying that teams are going to leave because of a poor tv deal. Teams will leave because this new conference is not any good. Nor will it probably ever be. I think the looniest side in this whole thing are people who think that UConn would be better served sticking it out in the NBE and saying no to the ACC, even if FSU and Clemson leave. People who think UConn is on the B1G radar are the people who I think are living the biggest pipedream. Maybe more so than people who think the NBE will get a big tv deal.