RPI: AAC vs. Big East and a look to the future

[DefenseBB]

As many of our non-Husky brethren point out on our forum, the AAC is not a good conference. This year, the conference is 9th behind the P5, Big East, Ivy and Missouri Valley Conference. No matter how you slice it, that's terrible. While we had high hopes 7 years ago that these teams would make strides, they haven't and may have regressed. I did a formal look at this years AAC to Big East as a predictor for how UConn should benefit in the years to come from a relative rating perspective and the good news is -it looks significantly good. The Big East should make some inroads in closing the gap to the P5 but still needs the lower group of a few schools to get better. @ConwayGmck and @Plebe were having a discussion on RPI in the Alabama-MSU game thread and my analysis supports how poor the AAC really is.
A few notes for the below chart: Q1 is playing teams ranked RPI 1-50; Q2 is 51-100; Q3 is 101-200 and Q4 is 201-351
I have the teams sorted in current standings. C-Rec is conference record, O-Rec is overall record. SoS is strength of overall schedule and Q1 is their Q1 record. AAC average is 4.64 Q1 games on their schedule, BE average is 6.9 Q1 games on their Conference schedule. The 11 other AAC teams have played a total of 51 Q1 teams. The 10 Big East teams have played 69 Q1 teams and please note that the Big East has to play an 18 game conference schedule. The BE has 2 teams who have played >100 SoS while the AAC has 7 teams with >100 SoS. Pathetic, just pathetic.

Xavier looks abysmal at 3-24 but their SoS is 39, so the coach is trying. Now look at Cincinnati, 18-8 with SoS 104 and only 5 Q1 games. Blah...

Adding UConn into the Big East will benefit everyone and hopefully Xavier can learn from this experience and win more next year. Georgetown and PC, need to get focused. The rest of the league looks good for continued growth.
Let me know my WCBB faithful, let me know.

C-Rk	Team	C-Rec	O-Rec	RPI	SoS	Q1	Team	C-Rec	O-Rec	RPI	SoS	Q1
1	Connecticut	13-0	23-3	6	18	6-3	DePaul	15-2	25-4	22	75	4-3
2	Cincinnati	9-4	18-8	77	104	1-4	Marquette	12-5	21-7	37	86	1-4
3	UCF	8-5	16-9	39	32	1-5	Butler	11-5	19-8	88	105	4-4
3	South Florida	8-5	16-11	69	45	0-6	Villanova	10-6	16-11	72	53	2-5
5	Temple	7-6	15-11	91	54	1-4	Creighton	9-7	17-10	42	46	2-5
6	Wichita State	7-7	15-12	158	181	0-4	Saint John's	9-7	16-11	63	59	2-6
6	Tulane	7-7	12-15	156	82	1-3	Seton Hall	9-7	16-11	76	56	2-6
8	SMU	6-8	12-14	219	172	0-3	Providence	2-14	11-17	169	122	0-6
9	East Carolina	5-8	8-18	243	114	0-4	Georgetown	2-14	5-22	240	79	0-6
10	Houston	5-9	12-16	190	115	0-4	Xavier	2-14	3-24	252	39	0-7
11	Memphis	4-10	13-14	191	167	0-4
12	Tulsa	2-12	7-20	272	110	0-6
51	69
Conference	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
AAC RPI	2	2	4	3
BE RPI	3	4	1	2
AAC SoS	2	2	7
BE SoS	2	6	2

 

[EricLA]

Good stuff thanks. 4 teams in the AAC with a RPI under 100. 7 in the Big East. Georgetown and Xavier are truly dreadful, tho. The only team in either conference with a RPI worse than those 2 is Tulsa. The bottom of the big east is really really bad. Xavier, Georgetown, and to a lesser extent, Providence...

 

[DefenseBB]

Good stuff thanks. 4 teams in the AAC with a RPI under 100. 7 in the Big East. Georgetown and Xavier are truly dreadful, tho. The only team in either conference with a RPI worse than those 2 is Tulsa. The bottom of the big east is really really bad. Xavier, Georgetown, and to a lesser extent, Providence...

Xavier has an excuse as they played a significantly tougher schedule. The fact that 7 of the 11 remaining AAC teams played such a poor OOC is deplorable and this includes that bow-tieing fool at SMU who should be FIRED! I hope we pummel Cincinnati this week as their scheduling is a bit of a fraud and they should not make the NCAAT. As much as I loathe Coach Abe's tactics, she's played a better schedule.

 

[DEpup]

Thanks so much for the stats! So looking forward to the Big East! I'll get to see at least 3 games in person.

 

[Wbbfan1]

What's going to possibly hurt UConn's schedule in the future is that in the Big East there will be 20 Conference Games as you play each conference team twice. UConn currently only plays 16 AAC Conference Games. That's four OOC Games that UConn won't play. How will Geno schedule the 9-11 OOC Games. It could be as high as 11 if UConn goes to any Tournaments/Challenges where three games count as One Game.

 

[HopJim]

Great stats but not sure what they support. Slightly better for UConn with emphasis on "slightly."

 

[Kevinmac]

What's going to possibly hurt UConn's schedule in the future is that in the Big East there will be 20 Conference Games as you play each conference team twice. UConn currently only plays 16 AAC Conference Games. That's four OOC Games that UConn won't play. How will Geno schedule the 9-11 OOC Games. It could be as high as 11 if UConn goes to any Tournaments/Challenges where three games count as One Game.

This will impact season season ticket holders losing big games and buying just few big games on Stub Hub or whatever. More importantly ESPN losses the games to Fox Sports whom rating are 30 percent of ESPN due limited network. This will hurt our national Exposure against Power Conferences.

 

[DEpup]

The Big East will get to 18 games eventually.

 

[and one]

I justed looked to see who broadcasts Big East games and it looks like Fox (FSI and FS2) televise two games of each team plus the tournament, ESPN+ and a CBS outlet get a game or two and the rest by Big East Digital Network, which streams the games via YouTube.

Anyone know how good the BEDN game broadcasts are?

 

[mbr33ct]

Every Conference have their "dogs" in them, some more than others, AAC being the worst offender with 7 of 12 teams with an RPI Rank of 157 to 270. Next season can't come fast enough for the move to the Big East.

Here's a list I compiled, the P5 Conf, Big East and the AAC with conference RPI Rank. (WarrenNolan.com) as of 02-25-2020

#1 Pac12: 4 of 12 (107 to 137); 33% of the league/teams with RPI's over 100.
#2 Big10: 3 of 14 (138 to 203); 21+%
#3 Big12: 2 of 10 (121 and 135); 20%
#4 SEC: 5 of 14 (110 to 287); 35+%
#5 ACC: 6 of 15 (101 to 286); 40%
#6 Big East: 3 of 10 (170 to 254); 30%
#9 AAC: 7 of 12 (157 to 270); 58%

 

[DefenseBB]

Great stats but not sure what they support. Slightly better for UConn with emphasis on "slightly."

I politely disagree that it is “slightly” better. Given the trend for the Big East to focus on Basketball, both Men’s and Women’s, their attendance and schedule quality have both improved over the past 7 years whereas the AAC has degraded and has programs not empathizing WCBB nor their scheduling. Heck, the Travis Mays situation alone should tell you that. Only UCF has improved during our time and that is still ugly, mug and thug basketball.

In response to @mbr33ct I agree all leagues have “have nots” but the American has 58%! Deplorable, simply deplorable. Now, RPI is not the whole story either as you need to look at the OOC as well and the conferences you list are better than the RPI but with still a few dogs listed.
Let’s review the PAC-12 as it is not as bad as you intimate:
Utah, Washington and Colorado all played terrible OOC and rightfully listed as >100
Washington State played an SoS of 33 with those teams RPI rank of 75. They are better than they appear. So 3 of 12 for 25%.
BigTen is valid at 3/14 though Krieder at PSU inherited that schedule and will make them better.
Big12 at 2/10 is probably lucky as KSU should be in the 100’s. 3/10 given their OOC
SEC with 5/14 is valid and is why this conference is overrated-36%!!!
ACC at 6/15 is overstated. ND and Miami have unique situations this year and their schedules show they are quality programs 4/15-26%

My point is The Big East with only 2 of 10 is very strong and as consistent as the P5 and better positioned for WCBB growth than the American was, is or will be. I can’t leave this conference fast enough. Let’s dominate the last 3 games, win the Tourny at Mohegan Sun and send the AAC packing to whatever downtrodden arena that can seat 1,900 people for next years Conference Tournament (vs. 8,000 now).

 

[OFID]

The entire distribution for RPI score appears in the first page of the attached pdf.

Observations:

• The AAC and Big East clearly have the highest percentage of really bad teams.
• The Big East has the worst best team (that will change next year).

RPI does some strange things, as it does not take margin of victory into account, and weights opponents SoS and opponents opponents SoS 50% and 25%, respectively. It appears to favor teams that play in a good conference.

The second page of the pdf has the distribution for the Massey rating score, which may give a more accurate impression of how good the conferences are.

Observations:

• As with the RPI, the AAC and Big East clearly have the highest percentage of bad teams.
• As with the RPI, the Big East has the worst best team (that will change next year).
• With Massey, there's not a lot in the Big 12 after Baylor.
• In addition to the Big 12, there's a huge gap between the best and second best teams in the AAC and SEC.

 

[mbr33ct]

Let me copy/paste, what I do best, a color coded capture a representation of my previous post to see in living color how bad the AAC is. As to what @OFID mentioned, I don't see the Big East being that bad, yes the three teams do have nose bleed (sorry Olivia ) seats RPI's but it will only get better from next season.

 

[meyers7]

So we're making that huge jump from 7th to 6th. Woohoo.

I think I'm with @HopJim on this one.

 

[OFID]

So we're making that huge jump from 7th to 6th. Woohoo.

The AAC is currently 9th in RPI and 8th in Massey. The Big East is 6th in both, so it's a little bigger jump than from 7th to 6th. Also, UConn being in the Big East will make the Big East a better conference. Take another look at that pdf and mentally move UConn over to the Big East. The resulting conference looks much better.

 

[meyers7]

The AAC is currently 9th in RPI and 8th in Massey. The Big East is 6th in both, so it's a little bigger jump than from 7th to 6th. Also, UConn being in the Big East will make the Big East a better conference. Take another look at that pdf and mentally move UConn over to the Big East. The resulting conference looks much better.

I'm well aware. I'm just not as excited as most of moving back to the BE. Everyone else is playing in the P5s while UCONN is moving from one loser (non-P5) conference to another. Albet, yes a better loser conference. While everyone else is getting filet and lobster, UCONN is going from cold gruel to warm gruel. Yippee.

 

[dogged1]

I'm well aware. I'm just not as excited as most of moving back to the BE. Everyone else is playing in the P5s while UCONN is moving from one loser (non-P5) conference to another. Albet, yes a better loser conference. While everyone else is getting filet and lobster, UCONN is going from cold gruel to warm gruel. Yippee.

I "liked" your post because it states a truth, however I did not like your post.

 

[Steelerone]

As many of our non-Husky brethren point out on our forum, the AAC is not a good conference. This year, the conference is 9th behind the P5, Big East, Ivy and Missouri Valley Conference. No matter how you slice it, that's terrible. While we had high hopes 7 years ago that these teams would make strides, they haven't and may have regressed. I did a formal look at this years AAC to Big East as a predictor for how UConn should benefit in the years to come from a relative rating perspective and the good news is -it looks significantly good. The Big East should make some inroads in closing the gap to the P5 but still needs the lower group of a few schools to get better. @ConwayGmck and @Plebe were having a discussion on RPI in the Alabama-MSU game thread and my analysis supports how poor the AAC really is.
A few notes for the below chart: Q1 is playing teams ranked RPI 1-50; Q2 is 51-100; Q3 is 101-200 and Q4 is 201-351
I have the teams sorted in current standings. C-Rec is conference record, O-Rec is overall record. SoS is strength of overall schedule and Q1 is their Q1 record. AAC average is 4.64 Q1 games on their schedule, BE average is 6.9 Q1 games on their Conference schedule. The 11 other AAC teams have played a total of 51 Q1 teams. The 10 Big East teams have played 69 Q1 teams and please note that the Big East has to play an 18 game conference schedule. The BE has 2 teams who have played >100 SoS while the AAC has 7 teams with >100 SoS. Pathetic, just pathetic.

Xavier looks abysmal at 3-24 but their SoS is 39, so the coach is trying. Now look at Cincinnati, 18-8 with SoS 104 and only 5 Q1 games. Blah...

Adding UConn into the Big East will benefit everyone and hopefully Xavier can learn from this experience and win more next year. Georgetown and PC, need to get focused. The rest of the league looks good for continued growth.
Let me know my WCBB faithful, let me know.

C-Rk	Team	C-Rec	O-Rec	RPI	SoS	Q1	Team	C-Rec	O-Rec	RPI	SoS	Q1
1	Connecticut	13-0	23-3	6	18	6-3	DePaul	15-2	25-4	22	75	4-3
2	Cincinnati	9-4	18-8	77	104	1-4	Marquette	12-5	21-7	37	86	1-4
3	UCF	8-5	16-9	39	32	1-5	Butler	11-5	19-8	88	105	4-4
3	South Florida	8-5	16-11	69	45	0-6	Villanova	10-6	16-11	72	53	2-5
5	Temple	7-6	15-11	91	54	1-4	Creighton	9-7	17-10	42	46	2-5
6	Wichita State	7-7	15-12	158	181	0-4	Saint John's	9-7	16-11	63	59	2-6
6	Tulane	7-7	12-15	156	82	1-3	Seton Hall	9-7	16-11	76	56	2-6
8	SMU	6-8	12-14	219	172	0-3	Providence	2-14	11-17	169	122	0-6
9	East Carolina	5-8	8-18	243	114	0-4	Georgetown	2-14	5-22	240	79	0-6
10	Houston	5-9	12-16	190	115	0-4	Xavier	2-14	3-24	252	39	0-7
11	Memphis	4-10	13-14	191	167	0-4
12	Tulsa	2-12	7-20	272	110	0-6
51	69
Conference	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
AAC RPI	2	2	4	3
BE RPI	3	4	1	2
AAC SoS	2	2	7
BE SoS	2	6	2

Great post DD. Unfortunately I only got as far as "As many" before my eyes glazed over. When I regained consciousness my wife told me that I promised to take her out for supper.

 

[Steelerone]

What's going to possibly hurt UConn's schedule in the future is that in the Big East there will be 20 Conference Games as you play each conference team twice. UConn currently only plays 16 AAC Conference Games. That's four OOC Games that UConn won't play. How will Geno schedule the 9-11 OOC Games. It could be as high as 11 if UConn goes to any Tournaments/Challenges where three games count as One Game.

Geno has never had any trouble scheduling the top teams for our out of conference games. We are the top draw even against teams like Baylor, Notre Dame and South Carolina. The problem will probably be when the games can be scheduled.

 

[Steelerone]

I'm well aware. I'm just not as excited as most of moving back to the BE. Everyone else is playing in the P5s while UCONN is moving from one loser (non-P5) conference to another. Albet, yes a better loser conference. While everyone else is getting filet and lobster, UCONN is going from cold gruel to warm gruel. Yippee.

Like everyone else I would have loved to see Uconn get an invitation to a Power 5 but it's not even in the mix for now. But we have not been in one for the past thirty years and it does not appear to have hurt either our recruiting or our scheduling. Given what we have coming in for the next few years and the quality of the teams we play not only in but out of conference I think we will remain viable for top billing.

 

[mbr33ct]

 

[dogged1]

Like everyone else I would have loved to see Uconn get an invitation to a Power 5 but it's not even in the mix for now. But we have not been in one for the past thirty years and it does not appear to have hurt either our recruiting or our scheduling. Given what we have coming in for the next few years and the quality of the teams we play not only in but out of conference I think we will remain viable for top billing.

Many would say that the old Big East was a power conference, due to its inclusion in the old football bowl system. It certainly was a premier, and arguably the best, basketball conference in the country, both men's and women's. It had money and prestige. So, no, we weren't hurting for recruiting in that conference.

Conference realignment changed all that. We are now among the outs. The move to the new Big East will help Men's recruiting and Hurley will continue to improve the men's team. Geno can recruit based on reputation alone. As long as Geno is coach the women's team can thrive anywhere, the AAC experience proved that.

Football is another story.

 

[DEpup]

Look a P5 conference is a pipe dream with our football team so lets not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. I think the BE will give us better teams that are good comparisons to the middle and bottom of the P5 conferences and then combined with the tough OOC games mixed in as always will be the necessary lemonade from the lemons we have been given. I bet that combination will result in RPI and SOS analytics equal to the top P5 schools in the years to come.

 

[Steelerone]

Many would say that the old Big East was a power conference, due to its inclusion in the old football bowl system. It certainly was a premier, and arguably the best, basketball conference in the country, both men's and women's. It had money and prestige. So, no, we weren't hurting for recruiting in that conference.

Conference realignment changed all that. We are now among the outs. The move to the new Big East will help Men's recruiting and Hurley will continue to improve the men's team. Geno can recruit based on reputation alone. As long as Geno is coach the women's team can thrive anywhere, the AAC experience proved that.

Football is another story.

How very incisive Dogged. I do like the transfer back to the Big East if only for the familiarity and travel. You know, I will always wonder what would have happened if we had admitted Penn State to the old Big East. I'm not sure that the walls would have crumbled the way they did.

 

[Plebe]

I'm well aware. I'm just not as excited as most of moving back to the BE. Everyone else is playing in the P5s while UCONN is moving from one loser (non-P5) conference to another. Albet, yes a better loser conference. While everyone else is getting filet and lobster, UCONN is going from cold gruel to warm gruel. Yippee.

I'm sorry but the other conferences are no filet and lobster. The Ole Misses and Pitts and Floridas and Kansases and Texas Techs and Vandys and Clemsons and Utahs and Washington States and Wake Forests ... those teams make up the bulk of the schedule in most p5 conferences. The Big 12 after Baylor is thoroughly mediocre.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not doing cartwheels and jumping jacks either. But I'm also not buying in to the false narrative of conference elitism.