Round Robin Sports Betting

[Stinger92860]

Would any one be interested in sharing how to use round robin bets as a hedge? I’m really curious as to the most cost effective betying by leg tiers. What works and what results in losing to the vig. Im open for anything.

 

[uconnfan68]

Never bet on anything that talks.

 

[AD DB Burner]

Would any one be interested in sharing how to use round robin bets as a hedge? I’m really curious as to the most cost effective betying by leg tiers. What works and what results in losing to the vig. Im open for anything.

I could very well be wrong, but I don't think there is any betting to betting round robins as a form of hedging.

Parlays, in general, are sportsbook dreams so even if you are taking say 6 games and betting them all in round robins with 2 or 3 legs in each, the odds of you breaking even without hitting at least 5 out of 6 games correctly are pretty slim because you are going to be pairing each possible parlay with each other depending upon the criteria you choose.

The only gambling tip I can offer is to just bet individual sides and/or totals. It is more of a grind to turn a profit, but long-term any gambling professional will tell you it is the best approach.

 

[StingLykOllie]

Here's an awesome thread from Justin Freeman at runthesims.com, that is more centered around player props in the NFL/NBA (which are MUCH softer than totals/spreads/ML), but gives some good context to the value of Parlays and Round Robin betting.

Thread by @JustinFreeman18 on Thread Reader App

Thread by @JustinFreeman18: Wanted to threadsome thoughts on parlaysand round robins in sports betting. What are they, when to use them, etc. Let's start by unlearning a few things. Parlays are surefire ways to ...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[AD DB Burner]

That was a very good thread @StingLykOllie. I personally have definitely been leaning further into player props in NFL this past month or so now that we have legal sports betting here in CT and I have more betting options to pick from.

Thanks for sharing.

 

[McLovin]

Recently been testing a strategy on DraftKings Sportsbook because they accept this type of bet.

Betting 2 NFL player TD scoring props parlays. Betting them as a “round robin”.

Example: I think both cooper kupp and Travis kelce will score a TD this week.

Kupp 1st half TD / Kelce 1st Half TD
Kupp 2nd / Kelce 1st
Kupp 1st / Kelce 2nd
Kupp 2nd / Kelce 2nd

The payout come in slightly less than just betting them parlayed to each score a TD in the entire game if they each only get 1 TD, but it opens up the possibility to hit multiple bets if someone (or both) score more than once.

My biggest problem is finding a reliable model to project individual TD probability (you want 2 guys with over 55% chance to win in the long run, blindfolded) that isn’t my gut…

 

[Waquoit]

I know this isn't quite what you are looking for, but way back when I watched a video where John Patrick (of teaching craps fame) described his betting technique. Find two games you like, one early and one late. Bet a 6-point teaser. Assuming you hit the first, make a bet of the same amount going the other way giving you a big middle. So you either collect on both or split, leaving you down just the vig on one bet. Has anyone here done this?

 

[VAHuskyFan]

Every standard bet has a house edge built in (the vig), so every bet is negative expectation at neutral odds. There’s no way to hedge a series of negative expectation bets into a positive expectation total.

The only two ways to make positive expectation bets are by identifying truly favorable odds (good luck!) or by taking advantage of promotions/odds boosts. Some sites will offer 20% payout boosts for example. Those convert any neutral-odds bet into a positive expectation bet (bc the boost is greater than the vig).

 

[Stinger92860]

I know this isn't quite what you are looking for, but way back when I watched a video where John Patrick (of teaching craps fame) described his betting technique. Find two games you like, one early and one late. Bet a 6-point teaser. Assuming you hit the first, make a bet of the same amount going the other way giving you a big middle. So you either collect on both or split, leaving you down just the vig on one bet. Has anyone here done this?

i love John Patrick, I still use his money management system 20+ years later.

last night I used 4 game round robin to hedge 2 single nba bets ATS. These 2 bets were also part of my round robin. the other 2 were money line, high probability. I was looking to protect if one of my 2 ATS bets went south. It paid off as all bets hit, which obviously does not always happen. There has to be a recommended approach, and if there is I’m going to figure it out.

im experimenting.

 

[McLovin]

i love John Patrick, I still use his money management system 20+ years later.

last night I used 4 game round robin to hedge 2 single nba bets ATS. These 2 bets were also part of my round robin. the other 2 were money line, high probability. I was looking to protect if one of my 2 ATS bets went south. It paid off as all bets hit, which obviously does not always happen. There has to be a recommended approach, and if there is I’m going to figure it out.

im experimenting.

Well, winning all your bets would certainly be a recommended approach.

But in all seriousness, curious why you added in 2 ML bets to “hedge” your 2 ATS?

Was it to take a -110 spread bet and make it +100 or better so if one lost you at least broke even?

 

[Kolumbo]

I don't get any of this craps.

 

[Stinger92860]

Well, winning all your bets would certainly be a recommended approach.

But in all seriousness, curious why you added in 2 ML bets to “hedge” your 2 ATS?

Was it to take a -110 spread bet and make it +100 or better so if one lost you at least broke even?

The latter, but I’m just experimenting. One loss should be the worst outcome more than 50% of the time if we at least know what we are doing. I’m trying it again tonight using your player props approach included. Tonight simple bets.

As the other poster pointed out the vig eats away at winnings.