UConnSwag11
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Rothstein - Early Big East Breakdown - St. John's and UConn are on a collision course + Power Rankings
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It'll probably be similar this year. UConn will probably end up going further in the tournament but will probably struggle head to head vs St John's. As things stand, I don't think we have enough beef down low to deal with physical teams, especially if Reed gets into foul trouble, which I fully expect him to do in at least one of our matchups. In such a scenario, I can see us getting absolutely killed on the boards. I am REALLY surprised we didn't get another beefy big who can defend/rebound vs big/physical teams. We appear really vulnerable down low if Reed gets hurt or has foul issues.
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Agree with Reed on foul trouble but if you look at the head to head against Zubi, Reed owned the matchup. He is a bigger, stronger kid than Zubi, an inch taller and 20lbs heavier. One thing not talked about is that StJ does have Mitchell off the bench at the 4, behind Hopkins. That is really nice depth at that position.
Where StJ out-physicalled us last year was at the 1-3 with Kadari/Luis/Scott. StJ was also old as hell last year. All those guys are gone, and we got bigger/older in a number of spots.
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Reed vs Zubi is not the issue... It's when Reed is not on the floor that there's an issue.
When you play Karaban or Stewart at the 4, you really should have a big, strong 5 on the floor with them. Otherwise, you will relentlessly get beat off the boards and at the rim against bigger, physical teams. You are correct in that last year St John's out-physicalled us mostly at the 1-3, but this year, I think bigger teams like Florida or this upcoming year's St John's team will have the size/beef up front to give us real problems down low, especially if/when Reed is not on the floor for any reason. It's not like it'd be unheard of for Reed to have foul issues in a game or for a center to have an injury at some point during the season. We are lacking any depth in that regard and it's VERY surprising to me that we didn't address it.
We didn't necessarily need another 5 who is an offensive weapon. We have Reibe and plenty of non-center scoring options. However, we definitely could use another large body capable of rebounding and defending vs. specific teams and in specific scenarios when Reed is not on the floor due to fouls or injury and it shouldn't have been that hard to secure one. To me, it's a glaring weakness on paper going into the season similar to the glaring weakness of lack of pg depth going into last year. Right now, even a minor injury to Reed or subpar year from him can completely derail the season.
We have legit championship aspirations with this year's team, and it just strikes me as very odd that we didn't fill the obvious void of a lack of a beefy, back up post player for emergency situations.
When you play Karaban or Stewart at the 4, you really should have a big, strong 5 on the floor with them. Otherwise, you will relentlessly get beat off the boards and at the rim against bigger, physical teams. You are correct in that last year St John's out-physicalled us mostly at the 1-3, but this year, I think bigger teams like Florida or this upcoming year's St John's team will have the size/beef up front to give us real problems down low, especially if/when Reed is not on the floor for any reason. It's not like it'd be unheard of for Reed to have foul issues in a game or for a center to have an injury at some point during the season. We are lacking any depth in that regard and it's VERY surprising to me that we didn't address it.
We didn't necessarily need another 5 who is an offensive weapon. We have Reibe and plenty of non-center scoring options. However, we definitely could use another large body capable of rebounding and defending vs. specific teams and in specific scenarios when Reed is not on the floor due to fouls or injury and it shouldn't have been that hard to secure one. To me, it's a glaring weakness on paper going into the season similar to the glaring weakness of lack of pg depth going into last year. Right now, even a minor injury to Reed or subpar year from him can completely derail the season.
We have legit championship aspirations with this year's team, and it just strikes me as very odd that we didn't fill the obvious void of a lack of a beefy, back up post player for emergency situations.
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Do not overlook Pitino. He might be despised but he is a hell of a coach. St. John's will be a challenge as long as he is coaching them.
We have upgraded and gotten stronger at 1-3 this off-season. STJ's really exposed us there last year. Our bench is deeper and our overall team shooting has improved. If we can meet Dan's expectations on the defensive side of the ball-We'll be fine. Junkyard dog X- factor off the bench for us could well be Koroma. His kind of game.
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Pitino will do what he always does, get his guys into the best physical condition of their lives and to keep pressing motivational buttons. His system is built around endurance and defense, not offense. It's an offense off of defense system, outworking on the glass, taking more shots than your opponent. Really when it comes down to it, as long as you reduce turnovers and play sound basketball, you can neutralize it in a half court game.
dennismenace
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That sounds very similar to Jim Calhoun's style, especially in the earlier years. Hard to argue with success.
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That's what makes St. John's so scary this upcoming season, they brought in some damn good offensive players.
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Even Ball's defense got better toward the end of the season... I think he even had a block on Marquette while defending a drive. Collectively our team defense got much better in the last few games, Big East tourney, and dance.
Our improvements are:
1. Ball handling - Demary, Jr. and Smith is a +++ upgrade and cascades improvement to not have AK, Liam be working the ball downcourt. Let's players play in their natural positions.
2. Wing - Liam was special, but was hurt (high ankle) so getting Furphy with a (hopefully) better Stewart is an upgrade.
3. Team defense - last few games of the regular season, BE Tourney, and dance our team defense was no longer > 100, but somewhere in ~20-30 rank range. We now have even better defenders and improvements to our existing defenders (Ball especially was better late in the season).
4. Talent at all positions on the bench - could be ranked higher, but last year we had Tarris off the bench, as we did with Stewart, Ross, Mahaney mainly. This season we have a natural backup at the 1 with Smith, Koroma is more than serviceable at the 4, Stewart (if he is not a starter at the 3 or 4), Ross (at the 3), Furphy (3), Reibe (5). I am assuming Mullins starts but if not, would be a nice player to have if Ball needs a rest. Even Millender is a + serviceably guard.
St. John's improved their frontcourt, but not really their backcourt. Gone are Luis, Jr., Richmond, Smith and even Rothstein had questions.
Graded relative to their position and depth placement (ie an A- 7th man means they are extremely qualified for the role, but doesn't mean they'd be an A as a starter).
| UConn | Grade | Edge | St. John's | Grade | |
| PG | Silas Demary | A- | UConn | Dylan Darling | B+ |
| SG | Solo Ball | A- | UConn | Ian Jackson | B+ |
| Wing | Braylon Mullins | B+ | UConn | Oziyah Sellers | B |
| PF | Alex Karaban | A | UConn | Bryce Hopkins | A- |
| C | Tarris Reed | A- | St. John's | Zuby Ejiofor | A |
| 6th Man | Jaylin Stewart | B+ | St. John's | Dillon Mitchell | A |
| 7th Man | Malachi Smith | A- | Tie | Joson Sanon | A- |
| 8th Man | Eric Reibe | B | UConn | Kelvin Odih | B- |
| 9th Man | Jacob Furphy | B | UConn | Ruben Pray | B- |
Waquoit
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Ooooh! Scary!
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This is all rehashed stuff but not much to write about now.
“I think it’s great for college basketball to get eyeballs, it’s great for the Big East to be able to play a couple of the biggest games of the college basketball season," Hurley said. "It’s UConn and it’s St. John’s and it’s MSG."
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“I think it’s great for college basketball to get eyeballs, it’s great for the Big East to be able to play a couple of the biggest games of the college basketball season," Hurley said. "It’s UConn and it’s St. John’s and it’s MSG."
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What Dan Hurley and Rick Pitino say about the UConn-St. John's rivalry: 'Great for the Big East'
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I don't want to sound like a hater, but not sure I agree with all the UConn favorites here. Part of the appeal of UConn (and St. John's to be fair*) as a national title contender is that the coaching staff can turn them into something bigger than the sum of their parts. For instance, on paper we had no business being in the game with Florida last year, let along almost winning.
While he will likely improve, Solo has shown he can't really dribble or play defense. In a vacuum, he is not a better player than Ian Jackson - although yes, he is a better fit in our system because he can shoot the cover of the ball and jump to the moon. Mullins is scrawny and unproven (again not trying to hate, he is a great shooter, with a good bb IQ/playmaking ability) and he will get BULLIED early on like Mahaney - so tbd on how he responds. Alex is the best role player/glue guy in the country who is unable to break down a defender; Bryce Hopkins, when healthy, is a star. A lot of projecting with the 8th and 9th men as well, so it's tough to give a fair eval to either side there.
Outside of the BY, any CBB expert/insider will have St. John's' roster ahead of ours if we do a man-by-man breakdown like this. However, we have much better retention, players with intangibles and a system that should fit our roster quite well - which is what would put us over them. St. John's has a lot of guys who only want to score, and that could blow up in their face. Perhaps you were taking this into account with the ratings, but I don't think that's what was asked for in the original post and you didn't mention doing this in your grading system.
HuskyHawk
The triumphant return of the Blues Brothers.
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St. Johns will foul 6 times a possession as Pitino teams always do. I'm sure they will be very tough to play, but I don't think it will translate in the tournament. Still annoying to see them near the top of the Big East. I respected the old Carnesecca teams, but not these.
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Pitino adapts - lots to play out here. We don’t know how good half these guys will be this year, impossible to analyze now.
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True but the cards say PG play will be worse, and team defense will be worse.
Thanks for the feedback. Obviously I disagree with some of this since I ranked them differently.
Jackson has not shown he can pass or play defense, either. Ball's strengths are STRONG, and I'm ranking in context of their team and coaching. Ball, Karaban, and Ejiofor are the only returning Big East All-conference players from last year. There's a very good chance he's preseason first team Big East. The defense is what keeps him from flat A for me. Ball is older than Jackson, and being old and talented is good. Jackson is moving into a new system and his role and usage is unclear. There are scenarios where he doesn't work at PG and he's the 4th option offensively who doesn't add a lot of complementary skills outside catch and shoot.
Mullins is so much more athletic than Mahaney. He's thin, but he's got good positional height, better length than Mahaney, and can jump and move his feet. A potential top 10 NBA draft pick has to be at least a B+.
Hopkins is impossible to rank. He's got an A ceiling for sure, but A- (All-conference 2nd or 3rd team level) seems like the median outcome with his rust and playing in a new situation.
Nah. 3 Man Weave just did their top 100 + honorable mention player rankings on the new Basket Under Review site and had 4 UConn players in the top 51. St. John's had 2 in the top 50, 1 at 74, and 1 HM.
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Strong disagree on Florida blowing us out of the water on paper. Also a strong disagree on your Ball and Mullins take.
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In the last couple of days Seton Hall picks up 6'10 250lb center in 2026 class top 50 to reclass to play this year, & Oregon picks up 6'11 260lb athlete from Nigeria playing in a Turkish league to be a depth piece. In other words, there have still been guys out there.
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I'm pretty high on our roster going into this season if Mullins plays out as hoped & my early guess is he is a really nice fit for our system and what we need. Any non-consideration for #1 is generally due to AK's season last year, and my hunch is he has a bounce back year playing less minutes and without all the stress on him. I think without the threepeat monkey on our back, Hurley not pumping the agenda non-stop, this team will be way more relaxed and play to it's ceiling. It also gives the guys who came back and had glaring weaknesses an offseason to work on those gaps, and come back tighter in areas we need (defense). I absolutely love having a kid like Furphy in our back pocket.
We had a lot of holes in our roster last year that have been remedied. We had a banged up, small PG with no backup. Forced a total non-fit like Mahaney that was a chronic stresser on our rotation, relied too much on a banged up freshman that couldn't play defense at the 3, and had a starting 5 with glaring limitations. Top that off with a first year starter in Solo. The artificial confidence of the B2B is gone.
We'd match up well with a team like Purdue and Houston's losses cannot be understated - they lost their top scorer and dawg/leader in the paint. Their upside is going to ride on their freshman class. Right now we're registering generally around 4-5 in odds to win it this year behind Duke, Purdue, Houston & sometimes BYU. If Tarris & Solo make the leaps, AK finds his old self, BM plays as hoped and Demery catches on, I like our upside as much or more than anyone.
Duke's glazing is hard to understand as Caleb Foster is way overrated and they're going to be relying on a lot of freshmen. They'll be good, but we've yet to see Scheyer play up his roster.
StJ has a ton of moving parts that need to play out. They took a massive drop at PG in a system that struggles to score at times. Lot's of new bodies and a starter that hasn't played in two years. Mitchell is decent insurance there, but they are really hard to prognosticate on at this point.