The new system is clearly an attempt to have the cake and eat it too. There is MOV included, but of the 5 or so sections a couple are focused entirely on W/L without MOV. It will depend on the weight of each category how it plays out.
RIP RPI
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The new system is clearly an attempt to have the cake and eat it too. There is MOV included, but of the 5 or so sections a couple are focused entirely on W/L without MOV. It will depend on the weight of each category how it plays out.
Vegas lines now very closely reflect KenPom spreads with some injury and other additional info baked in pre-movement. Years ago you could have (and many did) use it lucratively.
willie99
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I have no idea if that's true or not, actually lean NO because Vegas has to be much sharper, especially to start the season. But if it is true, I'm going to suggest Ken Pom mirrors Vegas, and not the other way around
They have a hand in the game
willie99
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Great article, except one substantial thing was missing, a a substantive record, or any record at all, about using his ratings to predict games. It cites two (maybe three) games since 2010. Ken Pom is good and I like his stuff, he used to rank Calhoun teams better than the RPI ever did. But it's really not going to give you an edge against the books, the article eventually arrives at that conclusion, albeit reluctantly
Why do you keep using present tense? I've said multiple times now that it used to give you an edge, but now is baked in. The bookmakers quoted admitted that. The anecdote about KenPom having a glitch and Vegas copying that glitched number show you the level it is baked in (or really copied and then adjusted, at least back then). There's also anecdotes from people who used it as the basis of their system and won.