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Message: [QUOTE="auror, post: 3169539, member: 1329"] This is the type of comparison that the stat win shares helps enlighten. The share of credit that a player earns based on the team's actual wins and his individual share of that production. So comparing larger role/production on mediocre/bad team to quieter role on very good team is possible. Sports-Reference has only Knight's last season in the database unfortunately, and he earned 1.4 offensive and 4.4 defensive win shares. Carlton (as a sophomore) earned 1.7 offensive and 1.2 defensive win shares. Both these numbers line up with my eye test in light of their respective contexts, with maybe Carlton's d being slightly overrated. As far as relative competition quality, both had 4 non-UConn NCAA tournament teams from the respective conferences. Big East had a FF, E8, and 2 2nd rounds for 10 wins total. AAC had a S16, 2nd round, 1st round, and first four for measly 3 wins (Though all 4 of Temple, Cincy, UCF, and Houston led at some point in the last 10 minutes of their losses and gacked them away). Clear edge to Big East, but the fact that both got 4 non-UConn teams into the dance shows the leagues were a little closer than some might expect. The main difference between the conferences is that one had good UConn on top of those other teams, and one didn't. Plus a lucky Syracuse F4 run. Knight was much worse on offense as a sophomore than as a senior, though. He took 1/3 less shots and he made them at a much worse clip (so both usage and efficiency were worse). An eFG of .439 is also very not good. He'd be in the 0.0-0.2 offensive win share range based on similar players. His defensive block rate was about the same, but his foul rate was double and his rebound rate was 33% worse. The actual team's defense was a few points per game worse, too, though still outstanding, and he played only half the minutes compared to as a senior. So if we adjust that 4.4 figure down (for possession share 4.4 -> 2.2, team d wins -> 2.0, and performance stats ->1.4), we end up with an estimated 1.4 defensive win shares, for a total of about ~1.6 win shares. So that's 1.6 win shares vs. 2.9 win shares for Carlton. However, we have to consider Carlton's higher minutes played. If you take it as ws/40, Carlton is at .158 ws/40 and Knight would be around .164 ws/40. Very, very close, with Knight earning the edge and the competition advantage widening his lead a bit more. And I think that's pretty much where we landed as a board consensus. Knight was a bit better on a much better team, but didn't have as big a role and wasn't as outwardly productive. Let's hope Carlton's career finishes with just as much improvement as Knight's did. [/QUOTE]

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