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- Aug 26, 2011
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Volfan: what a great and very fair assessment! I think your evaluations are pretty spot on. Ultimately I think the match ups depend on how much potential is developed and realized by some of the key players on each team, particularly Moriah and Mercedes.
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FWIW, I also don't think Tennessee has matched Uconn on paper yet. Davis would have given us that, but I don't think Reynolds does. No offense to her by any means, and I am definitely happy we landed her.
At this time the matchups would look like this:
PG: Massengale and Carter vs Jefferson and Chong
SG: Simmons, Reynolds, and Phillips vs Hartley and Banks
SF: Burdick and Tucker vs Lewis
PF: Graves and Jones vs Stewart and Tuck
C: Russell, Harrison, and Moore vs Dolson and Stokes
Roster wise, we definitely have the depth advantage, but in a single game, I don't think Tennessee would go more than 9-10 deep, so it's kind of negated. It could become a factor if this game happens in March or April though. A small roster will see more minutes all season long. It's good for development, but also leads to more fatigue and a chance at more injuries (knock on wood.)
Obviously on this board, there may be some disagreement, but I think Tennessee has an advantage at the point guard spot. Jefferson has a ton of potential, but I'm not sure she is a sure thing yet. Will she be ready in her sophomore year to fully take the reins of this team? Her athleticism is undeniable, but her ability to run a team remains to be seen. Chong along with Henderson were two of the more intriguing prospects in this class. Her scoring numbers are off the chart, but how will that translate to the next level? Will she be able to play the point at Uconn or is she better suited at the two?
Meanwhile, Massengale's biggest strength is her ability to run a team. Practice reports and interviews have noted that she has already taken control of this team and her shot is much improved. She has also, seemingly, overcome a nagging case of homesickness. I actually worried about her leaving some last year, but she has addressed it in some interviews recently and has said that she feels completely at home now at Tennessee. Her defense is still an area of concern for me, but I expect her to be one of the top lead guards in the country over the next couple of years. Carter, meanwhile, is going to give us a great second option off the bench. Like Jefferson, she is extremely athletic. She has the highest score ever on the Sparq test and has a vertical jump higher than Parker and Glory already. (Second on the test is Jordan Reynolds, third is Armentie Price, and fourth is Bri Turner.) I think she is going to thrive in our up-tempo system and is going to be a defensive specialist. She was all over the place on Thursday and has been praised for always giving that kind of effort. I know the girl can shoot, but she rarely looked to score in our exhibition. If she can find that balance between her defense, looking for her own shot, and getting others involved: she'll be even more special.
Simmons versus Hartley is a good matchup. I'm not going to argue that Simmons is a better player, but do I think she could match Hartley point for point in a game? Absolutely. Hartley, however, has a better overall game and is more efficient. Reynolds, like Carter, gives us another athletic guard coming off the bench. Of course Banks is also a speedster with a two year advantage. I haven't seen Phillips play at all, so I can't really comment on her impact. Reports say she can be a defensive stopper on the perimeter, but I don't know to what extent. Either way, I would give Uconn a solid advantage here. If this becomes Simmons, Sciafe, and Reynolds vs Hartley and Banks though, it becomes a little bit closer.
I would also give the edge to Tennessee at the 3 looking just at this little depth chart comparison. I look for Burdick's numbers to rise across the board this season. She played behind Stricklen and Johnson last season while fighting another senior, Manning, for those minutes. If you've watched her play though, you can't deny she is a special player. Her biggest question mark is whether she is a 3 or a 4. I think with Graves and Russell on hand, while also losing Davis, that we will primarily see her at the 3 after this season. Her shot is money on the baseline out to the 3 point line, and she has incredible passing ability for her size...or any size for that matter. And no one is going to out work her. Her body went through a major transformation this summer. We'll see if that translates to the basketball court. With that said, I think KML is a much more natural 3. Her shot is well documented, yet she's also able to score on the block. Tucker is another big guard, whose biggest strength is her ability to score the ball. Her addition makes this a simple 2 > 1 for me. I understand if someone disagrees, but it's close either way.
Stewart is the best prospect IMO in the four classes since Griner and gives Uconn a huge advantage over any team at the four. Tuck makes it an even deadlier 1-2 punch. I think she is going to be a very efficient player over the next 4 years. Graves gives UT a much needed banger down low, and I definitely wouldn't expect her to shy away from this matchup, but I just don't think there are going to be many ways to slow Stewart. Also, FWIW, of every player on the floor for Tennessee in our exhibition, I was most impressed with Jasmine Jones. Reports had said she was athletic, but it never came across in the videos I saw. It did in that game, and she is definitely a hooper. I think she missed only 1 shot from the floor on Thursday, and her defense looked solid. She's another tweener forward, but I think she is a sleeper in this freshman class.
The most interesting matchup would be at this 5 spot. You've got the solid verteran post in Dolson versus the No. 1 2013 in the country. I'm still not entirely sure what to expect with Russell though. I think the comparisons to Parker are a bit unfair. No 6'5 player has Parker's athleticism and ballhandling skills. I've always thought Lisa Leslie might be more of an apt comparison. Most of Russell's evaluations have praised her ability to score on the block combined with her obvious size advantage on top of the ability to shoot and handle the ball (I've always taken this last part with regard to her position). Most recently though, Brandon Clay said he thinks she is more of a four because she likes to hit the trail 3, and attack/shoot from the high post. I do expect her to come in and start at the center spot, but whether that means she just guards other centers and plays more at the high post while Graves does the banging down low on offense, remains to be seen. I think Stokes and Izzy are a wash and Moore is more of a project at this point, so this matchup would come down to how good Russell actually is. Can she be the superstar we need her to be?
Again, overall, I give Uconn the edge on paper, but I think there are some great matchups there.
Depth charts and matchups are fun for me to think out, and this thread seemed like an appropriate outlet. Feel free to demolish it now! (I'm talking to you doggydaddy lol.)
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