Revisiting Rivals.com's rankings for 2018 NFL first-rounders

[huskymedic]

 

[Palatine]

Notice that their five stars went to UCLA, FSU, Alabama, etc. If someone goes to Alabama they are a five or four star. Even if they were a no-star before committing there. Lots of nonsense.

 

[Scrutineer]

Aren't they all supposed to be 5 stars in order to be taken in the first round?

 

[Chin Diesel]

I'm still in awe that Mike Farrell is a national recruiting expert for Rivals.

The Little Engine That Could is jealous.

 

[Irishfan]

Aren't they all supposed to be 5 stars in order to be taken in the first round?

There are about 450 four and five star recruits, out of about 300,000 high school seniors playing football each year. Picking 20 out of the top 32 of these 300,000 while they are still in HS is pretty impressive.

 

[HuskyV]

There are about 450 four and five star recruits, out of about 300,000 high school seniors playing football each year. Picking 20 out of the top 32 of these 300,000 while they are still in HS is pretty impressive.

How many of the 450 will not be drafted? How many 2 star guys were drafted in the first 3 rounds?

Most of the QBs drafted will be considered busts - it is hardly a science. But having 20 of 450 pan out is not that impressive. 430 guys read their clippings and are surprised the were not invited to Dallas.

Same thing with picking the 68 teams in the NCAA Tourney - 66 of the teams are known - they are

 

[Irishfan]

How many of the 450 will not be drafted? How many 2 star guys were drafted in the first 3 rounds?

Most of the QBs drafted will be considered busts - it is hardly a science. But having 20 of 450 pan out is not that impressive. 430 guys read their clippings and are surprised the were not invited to Dallas.

Same thing with picking the 68 teams in the NCAA Tourney - 66 of the teams are known - they are

This wasn’t 20 that were drafted. It was 20 that went in the first round. There were 12 of the 299,550 non 4 and 5 Star players high school seniors that year that went in the first round. I have no idea how many were 2 star players. I also have no idea how many 4 or 5 star players went in rounds 2-7.

In any event, equating picking the top 68 teams out of 347 possible (1/5) to picking the top 20 players out of a possible 300,000 (1/15,000) seems to be a bit of a stretch.

 

[uconndogs]

There are two issues to consider here:

First, the very best HS talent should be relatively easy to identify. They have exceptional “measurables” and are standout HS performers (usually in HS hotbeds). I once got into it on a message board with one of the “evaluators” challenging the overall accuracy of the rating agency assessments. He pointed out as a example that this site accurately rated Vince Young. I congratulated him on identifying a 6’5” QB who ran a 4.3 with a riffle for an arm.

Second, there is little doubt that the top 10-20 programs consistently recruit the best talent. They wouldn’t perform at the level if they didn’t. The question is, do the recruiting sites rate the kids independent of the offers or are they heavily influenced by what programs offer a kid? This much I am sure of, Brian Kelly or the staffs of any major program do NOT rely on the recruiting sites in any way in assessing talent.