Remarkable How Little Damage Has Been Done

[Sphinx]

Considering that we have an 11-10 team that has lost 7 of its last 9 and has another tough test coming up at Tulsa, little actual damage has been done to pre-season expectations. You can argue, in fact, that realistic hopes for the post-season have improved.

Consider -- after the Tulsa game, all the remaining nine games will be against teams not as as good, or in venues not as tough, as in the last five close losses. If they go into those nine games at 11-11, there is chance for a nine-game win-out to 20-11. Shy of that, there is solid likelihood of a 6-3 or better finish that will get them into the NIT.

But here's what's improved from pre-season. The team has proved itself totally competitive with both ranked teams and the top-tier conference teams. They have proved this on neutral courts and in the toughest road venues -- at Houston, at Memphis, at Villanova. They have thus established themselves as a realistic Las Vegas choice in the conference tournament. Truth is, they have about as good a chance as anyone. And that's a large improvement from pre-season expectations.

The only pre-season hope that's down the toilet is the at-large NCAA bid. That has gone from a wildcard to a near impossibility. (Although a 20-11 finish and 2-1 in the tournament would stir hope,)

"So often the perception that something can't be done is an obstacle illusion." -- Short Thoughts For The Long Haul

 

[8893]

You can argue, in fact, that realistic hopes for the post-season have improved.

Sure, you can argue it.

You can also argue that the realistic hopes for an 8893 sandwich on J-Lo and Shakira bread have improved.

 

[tykurez]

If nothing else, they should go into the conference tournament knowing they’re competitive with anyone (except Cinci).

Realistically though, those games introduce even more pressure and this team has nobody to withstand it.

 

[Kitaman]

If nothing else, they should go into the conference tournament knowing they’re competitive with anyone (except Cinci).

I believe we will be the team no one wants to play. We will tire the opponent out so much they'll be exhausted the next night. Hell we might even get lucky.

 

[HuskyBoi]

There will be no 9 game win out after Tulsa.

I'm not trying to be negative, I'm trying to be realistic. We know this team. We know they compete. But we also know they are growing up. We never win @SMU so that will be a very unrealistic expectation to win there as well as our home matchup vs Houston. Cincy/Memphis games are up in the air. Including @Tulsa I'd say we go 5-5

 

[UCLJ0211]

I think we finish 18-13 or 17-14, win one in the AAC, lose the next one and finish close to 20 wins. Maybe an NIT bid. I’ve said it in other posts but I’ll take it!

 

[Durks07]

Sure, you can argue it.

You can also argue that the realistic hopes for an 8893 sandwich on J-Lo and Shakira bread have improved.

That would be some halftime show...

 

[Fatroony5]

I think we finish 18-13 or 17-14, win one in the AAC, lose the next one and finish close to 20 wins. Maybe an NIT bid. I’ve said it in other posts but I’ll take it!

Seems about right, I’d gladly take that result at this point. It feels like they just need to get the monkey off their back. It’s like a closer who keeps blowing games. Eventually, you gotta think they just get one of these close ones to break their way.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I am ever hopeful we can somehow land an NIT bid or win the AAC tournament.

Some things have gone right:

• Effort and intensity. Both on D, chasing loose balls
• Rebounding. Not getting killed.
• Overall defense, blocks

Some have gone wrong

• Shooting. Al is worse, Vital is worse, Josh is worse. Bouknight hasn’t been the shooter we expected. Akok has been miserably bad shooting the ball lately. Adams is better, but not good. Same with Sid.
• Injuries and luck. Once again we lost Gaff for a bit. Then Polley for the year, now Wilson for a few. Can you survive that? Sure. But it’s hard when your are already short two scholarship players. Our luck has been terrible. Every call or bounce goes against us. We lost our one shooter.
• Turnovers. This gets harped on but I think there are factors here beyond individual poor decisions. Namely, we can’t shoot. So the lane is clogged. No matter what guard goes in there they face a gauntlet. Second we play fast, which leads to mistakes. We have to play fast because we can’t shoot.

Can we solve our problems? If Bouk suddenly shoots 38% from 3, Vital goes back to 40% and Al and Adams to about 36% with Akok getting his overall FG% closer 50%. Yes, we’d win games.

 

[Fatroony5]

I am ever hopeful we can somehow land an NIT bid or win the AAC tournament.

Some things have gone right:

• Effort and intensity. Both on D, chasing loose balls
• Rebounding. Not getting killed.
• Overall defense, blocks

Some have gone wrong

• Shooting. Al is worse, Vital is worse, Josh is worse. Bouknight hasn’t been the shooter we expected. Akok has been miserably bad shooting the ball lately. Adams is better, but not good. Same with Sid.
• Injuries and luck. Once again we lost Gaff for a bit. Then Polley for the year, now Wilson for a few. Can you survive that? Sure. But it’s hard when your are already short two scholarship players. Our luck has been terrible. Every call or bounce goes against us. We lost our one shooter.
• Turnovers. This gets harped on but I think there are factors here beyond individual poor decisions. Namely, we can’t shoot. So the lane is clogged. No matter what guard goes in there they face a gauntlet. Second we play fast, which leads to mistakes. We have to play fast because we can’t shoot.

Can we solve our problems? If Bouk suddenly shoots 38% from 3, Vital goes back to 40% and Al and Adams to about 36% with Akok getting his overall FG% closer 50%. Yes, we’d win games.

The shooting won’t magically get that much better. I think the two things they can improve upon are finishing opportunities around the rim, especially lobs/transition baskets and limiting turnovers. Those two things will help them push these leads out a little more once they get down to the final 4 minutes. Look no further than what happened yesterday... up 1, two costly turnovers In a row right around that time. The game is so much different in those last 4 if you’re up two possessions like they could be. If those two things can be improved moderately, they can pick off a few more wins.

 

[tennmike]

Since our efforts have been futile in close games, there does not seem to be suitable logic to move to optimism. We're down our best shooter and the weight of unmet expectations is crashing down on our pg. I am a glass is half full type, but really?

 

[imno1]

The shooting won’t magically get that much better. I think the two things they can improve upon are finishing opportunities around the rim, especially lobs/transition baskets and limiting turnovers. Those two things will help them push these leads out a little more once they get down to the final 4 minutes. Look no further than what happened yesterday... up 1, two costly turnovers In a row right around that time. The game is so much different in those last 4 if you’re up two possessions like they could be. If those two things can be improved moderately, they can pick off a few more wins.

It's amazing that we can't get hot for one game. That we have consistently shot as poorly as we have. You'd think just by luck we have a few guys hit at a decent percentage at least one game. I've never seen anything like this. No moral victory here but it's surprising we've been in as many games as we have with a reliable shooter or someone who can get a bucket when needed.

 

[Fatroony5]

It's amazing that we can't get hot for one game. That we have consistently shot as poorly as we have. You'd think just by luck we have a few guys hit at a decent percentage at least one game. I've never seen anything like this. No moral victory here but it's surprising we've been in as many games as we have with a reliable shooter or someone who can get a bucket when needed.

It’s pretty wild to see, I can’t recall ever watching something like this. But you’re right, you’d think one of these games the other team would essentially gift a game away. Wondering if the “dam breaks” during one of these home games, a good crowd might give them the extra spark they so desperately need.

 

[RayRay]

I've been looking at this more lately, but just use last game as an example. Vital, Gilbert, and Carlton avg way more TOs per minute than the young core of BA, Bouk, Gaf, and Akok. We are already starting the changing of the guard by starting Bouk and now Gaff, but what I want to see now is those guys also closing out the game. I'll be honest, Vital has been huge for us this year but he absolutely crushes us at the end of games. Sorry but theres no denying it anymore and I've lost hope that it will improve. DH has already gone as far as to sit AG, now take this all the way and sit all 3 of the older guys to close out games. I'd be willing to bet that we see better results.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

Considering that we have an 11-10 team that has lost 7 of its last 9 and has another tough test coming up at Tulsa, little actual damage has been done to pre-season expectations. You can argue, in fact, that realistic hopes for the post-season have improved.

Consider -- after the Tulsa game, all the remaining nine games will be against teams not as as good, or in venues not as tough, as in the last five close losses. If they go into those nine games at 11-11, there is chance for a nine-game win-out to 20-11. Shy of that, there is solid likelihood of a 6-3 or better finish that will get them into the NIT.

But here's what's improved from pre-season. The team has proved itself totally competitive with both ranked teams and the top-tier conference teams. They have proved this on neutral courts and in the toughest road venues -- at Houston, at Memphis, at Villanova. They have thus established themselves as a realistic Las Vegas choice in the conference tournament. Truth is, they have about as good a chance as anyone. And that's a large improvement from pre-season expectations.

The only pre-season hope that's down the toilet is the at-large NCAA bid. That has gone from a wildcard to a near impossibility. (Although a 20-11 finish and 2-1 in the tournament would stir hope,)

"So often the perception that something can't be done is an obstacle illusion." -- Short Thoughts For The Long Haul

well, I am far from ready to cancel any hope for an at-large bid. are you watching whats happening to the rest of the field this year? total jump ball to my eyes, and since someone here pointed out that we're around mid 70s on the prom list, I won't preclude the possibility of us jumping a couple of dozen spots with a good run this month. of course, we need that 'good run' part.

 

[mauconnfan]

I've been looking at this more lately, but just use last game as an example. Vital, Gilbert, and Carlton avg way more TOs per minute than the young core of BA, Bouk, Gaf, and Akok. We are already starting the changing of the guard by starting Bouk and now Gaff, but what I want to see now is those guys also closing out the game. I'll be honest, Vital has been huge for us this year but he absolutely crushes us at the end of games. Sorry but theres no denying it anymore and I've lost hope that it will improve. DH has already gone as far as to sit AG, now take this all the way and sit all 3 of the older guys to close out games. I'd be willing to bet that we see better results.

Did we forget that Al sat the last few minutes vs Tulsa and the OT? How did that work out just checking?

 

[RayRay]

Did we forget that Al sat the last few minutes vs Tulsa and the OT? How did that work out just checking?

Actually you are proving my point. We played significantly better in the 2nd half with Gaff running the show instead of AG vs Tulsa, and then played our best game of the season vs Temple. What I'm saying is, I want to also see CV not in the game at the end of regulation or end of OT. I very much like a lineup of Gaff, Bouk, BA or Sid, Akok and Whaley (or BA, Akok, and Sid depending on size of opponent) and I think we will close games out better.
What I didn't mention above, is let's say we have a lineup like that with no seniors, Bouk now has no choice but to be the man and take that load on his shoulders. When CV is in the game, Bouk defers at the end of games. This is an end of the game problem and its a combination of CV losing BBIQ for whatever reason like he has his entire career, same issue for Gilbert, and for the young guys to have the confidence to take the last shot, namely Bouk or Akok, or even Gaff, which they won't do with the seniors in the game.
I don't think anything I'm saying here is out of line. I'm not bashing AG or Vital at all, but just simply saying that statistics show that they are TO machines, and we all see that AG and Vital have each cost us games in the last 4 minutes by making incredibly poor decisions. They are seniors, and if they haven't learned it yet, there's no way they will suddenly get it. Turn the ship over entirely to the young ones.

 

[Hoophound]

Techinically, chances of the JLo/Shakira sandwich have improved. Both will be in the same place today.

 

[Jaker]

I see us going into the American tourney with a losing record, win the automatic berth, thumb our noses at the AAC and play Dook in the 16-1 matchup .

 

[Jaker]

Sure, you can argue it.

You can also argue that the realistic hopes for an 8893 sandwich on J-Lo and Shakira bread have improved.

Are you A-Rod?

 

[John]

Sure, you can argue it.

You can also argue that the realistic hopes for an 8893 sandwich on J-Lo and Shakira bread have improved.

https://i.imgur.com/w6lCvSK_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

 

[mauconnfan]

Actually you are proving my point. We played significantly better in the 2nd half with Gaff running the show instead of AG vs Tulsa, and then played our best game of the season vs Temple. What I'm saying is, I want to also see CV not in the game at the end of regulation or end of OT. I very much like a lineup of Gaff, Bouk, BA or Sid, Akok and Whaley (or BA, Akok, and Sid depending on size of opponent) and I think we will close games out better.
What I didn't mention above, is let's say we have a lineup like that with no seniors, Bouk now has no choice but to be the man and take that load on his shoulders. When CV is in the game, Bouk defers at the end of games. This is an end of the game problem and its a combination of CV losing BBQ for whatever reason like he has his entire career, same issue for Gilbert, and for the young guys to have the confidence to take the last shot, namely Bouk or Akok, or even Gaff, which they won't do with the seniors in the game.
I don't think anything I'm saying here is out of line. I'm not bashing AG or Vital at all, but just simply saying that statistics show that they are TO machines, and we all see that AG and Vital have each cost us games in the last 4 minutes by making incredibly poor decisions. They are seniors, and if they haven't learned it yet, there's no way they will suddenly get it. Turn the ship over entirely to the young ones.

That’s cool I respect what you see. I don’t see the same at all but he was pretty good against a bad Temple team He was 2-10 with 5/2 but FTs were good) I just don’t think we can leave out his inability to make a play in OT against Tulsa can we? Also yesterday not good.

I hope he’s getting better and becomes what we all hope but for now I see a real nice 3rd 4th guard which is fine. He has had trouble with fast, good defenders all year and the offense starts too far out he doesn’t turn the corner much. Again I hope eventually I see what some of you see (or wish you were seeing). He seems to have a real nice stroke but he’s a mason like AG at this point. I think that will get better though.

 

[SwingDog]

The shooting won’t magically get that much better. I think the two things they can improve upon are finishing opportunities around the rim, especially lobs/transition baskets and limiting turnovers. Those two things will help them push these leads out a little more once they get down to the final 4 minutes. Look no further than what happened yesterday... up 1, two costly turnovers In a row right around that time. The game is so much different in those last 4 if you’re up two possessions like they could be. If those two things can be improved moderately, they can pick off a few more wins.

That's a good analysis. There is no denying the Huskies can compete with anyone in this conference, and maybe with anyone. As you said, they need to clean up "end of game" stuff, clock management, taking care of the basketball, and shot selection, and as you point out, they need to cash in on the opportunities at the rim. I understand this is all a function of maturity and developing not only a competitive mindset, but a winning one. The Huskies need to prove to themselves that they can win these games where they are in the driver's seat and be able to withstand those late runs and come away with the win. We'll know when they are there, and it might not quite be this year, but it would be sweet to grab a victory at Tulsa on Thursday.

 

[jibsey]

I’m reading the post and I see 20-11? The way we do stupid things at game end? I don’t care how bad our opponents are, but it’s Feb and many are dreaming Especially after all we’ve seen. CMon.