Remaining schedule.

[shizzle787]

Here it is: we sit at 7-10 (2-3).
@SMU-L
ECU-W
@USF-W
Tulane-W
@Cincy-L
USF-W
@UCF-W
Memphis-W
@Temple-W
@Houston-L
SMU-W
@ECU-W
Cincy-W

This would put us at 17-13 (12-6). We would probably be the 3rd seed in this scenario (achieving our goal of being top 5). I think this is a realistic finish and something that we can achieve. Hoping I'm wrong about the first game on the list but we shall see. Our schedule is actually a little easier than earlier so we should have a chance. However, we are going to need to win the tourney against a trio of likely (6) UCF, (2) SMU, and (1) Cincy. Boys, it's doable.

 

[7774]

I think you're extremely optimistic if you think that is a realistic finish.

 

[shizzle787]

I think you're extremely optimistic if you think that is a realistic finish.

I think you're extremely pessimistic if you think that isn't a realistic finish.

 

[Rocktheworld]

I just don't see this team losing only 3 more times between now and March 6th.

 

[gtcam]

Not a pessimist at all but I really don't see anything better than 15-15 BUT the only thing that counts is AAC tournament

 

[Matrim55]

Here it is: we sit at 7-10 (2-3).
@SMU-L
ECU-W
@USF-W
Tulane-W
@Cincy-L
USF-W
@UCF-W
Memphis-W
@Temple-W
@Houston-L
SMU-W
@ECU-W
Cincy-W

This would put us at 17-13 (12-6). We would probably be the 3rd seed in this scenario (achieving our goal of being top 5). I think this is a realistic finish and something that we can achieve. Hoping I'm wrong about the first game on the list but we shall see. Our schedule is actually a little easier than earlier so we should have a chance. However, we are going to need to win the tourney against a trio of likely (6) UCF, (2) SMU, and (1) Cincy. Boys, it's doable.

Hell I'd settle for 15-15 (10/8), and then a run to the AAC final that gets us into the NIT. I almost feel like that'd be the better scenario, since this team could make a deep NIT run, which means more games for Adams, Vance, Juwan, Enoch & Vital, and games we play this year will have a huge impact on how cohesive and intelligent we are next year.

Would I trade it for a likely first-weekend exit in the tourney? No. But I can talk myself into finding a silver lining pretty easily.

 

[upstater]

I might flip Houston and Cincy at the end of that schedule. Another Cincy loss, win @ Houston.

 

[7774]

I think you're extremely pessimistic if you think that isn't a realistic finish.

Yes well unfortunately for your thinking, basic math and logic do exist.

If you go to rpiforecast and look at their win probability for the games you have us winning, they think there is a .2% chance we win all those games. Not 2%, point 2%. So if we played the season 1000 times, we'd win all those games 2 times. Super realistic.

Even if you think we're 100X better than the model thinks we are based upon our recent improved play, we're still only winning all those games 20% of the time.

 

[shizzle787]

Yes well unfortunately for your thinking, basic math and logic do exist.

If you go to rpiforecast and look at their win probability for the games you have us winning, they think there is a .2% chance we win all those games. Not 2%, point 2%. So if we played the season 1000 times, we'd win all those games 2 times. Super realistic.

Even if you think we're 100X better than the model thinks we are based upon our recent improved played, we're still only winning all those games 20% of the time.

We will see, I still think we are winning 17+.

 

[BeMo14]

Here is how KenPom sees it. 13-17 final record, 8-10 in conference. I think this the floor for us, but it is realistic.

 

[shizzle787]

Here is how KenPom sees it. 13-17 final record, 8-10 in conference. I think this the floor for us, but it is realistic.

No way we lose to UCF even if it is in Florida.

 

[BFieldHusky]

To me I look at the schedule is 3 categories:

1. Beating the bottom teams in the league:

Of UConn's 13 games remaining in conference play, 5 are against the true bottom of the league. 2 games each with USF, and East Carolina, and a home game against Tulane. If we want ANY CHANCE of finishing in Top 5 of the league, we have to win all of these games.

2. Cincinnati and SMU:

Clearly appear to be the best two teams in the league. I do think SMU is vulnerable in that they play less guys than we do, and have zero depth in the front court. I'm not expecting UConn to beat these teams on the road, but can we hold serve against them at home? If we can that is huge. I like that both teams come to Hartford/Storrs late in the year.

3. The middle of the league:

If you believe that Cincy and SMU are the best team twos in the league, than you have 6 teams battling for the 3-5 seed in the conference tournament. UCF, Houston, Memphis, Tulsa, Temple and UConn. Temple is 1-5 so they may already be on the outside looking in. I worry that the Tulsa loss is really going to come back and bite us since they have the tiebreaker on us all year as we only played them once. Every else UConn has already played. The return games @UCF, @Houston, @Temple, and home to Memphis will ultimately determine if we can get to 12 wins or so and get that first round bye. Maybe even 11 can get them the 5 seed. To get 12 wins:

5 wins again the bottom of the league gets them to 7 wins.
If they could split with SMU and Cincy that gets them to 9 wins.
They would then need to go 3-1 against UCF, Houston, Temple and Memphis, with 3 of those being on the road.

 

[Jerry1714]

No way we lose to UCF even if it is in Florida.

Because we have done so well on the road this year?

 

[shizzle787]

Because we have done so well on the road this year?

We smoked UCF already.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Because we have done so well on the road this year?

I agree that we have played poor on the road. But other than the Memphis game, we were in all of those games until the very end. Ohio State. Tulsa. Georgetown. We just have to get over the hump on the road.